Monday, 30 May 2016

10. BLUE CATS BUT SIX

Just when you think the weekend is all sunshine lollypops and rainbows, the hot tip of the pundits early season go and lose another against a team no one expects to make the finals.

But there is no complaining as this round brought 8 wins, but more importantly six of the margins tipped were within a goal of the actual result.

Six. All differences to margin were -  three fours, two threes and a two, with the rogue Cats margin of by 64, and the Saints and Port Adelaide off by 24 and 32 respectively.

A ridiculous MAE of 15.8.
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Sydney/SMFCby22ptsSydney/SMFCby26ptsSydney/SMFC+9North Melbourne-2
Hawthornby51ptsHawthornby48ptsBrisbane Lions0Hawthorn-15
Port Adelaideby21ptsPort Adelaideby45ptsMelbourne-9Port Adelaide+8
St Kildaby2ptsSt Kildaby34ptsSt Kilda+19Fremantle-27
Richmondby34ptsRichmondby38ptsEssendon-14Richmond+1
Adelaideby18ptsAdelaideby22ptsAdelaide+6GWS-2
Geelongby45ptsCarltonby19ptsCarlton+24Geelong-20
W Bulldogs/FFCby19ptsW Bulldogs/FFCby21ptsCollingwood-1W Bulldogs/FFC+1
West Coastby74ptsWest Coastby77ptsWest Coast+1Gold Coast-25

A final note - tips were not entered in time for the Sydney / North Melbourne game over at the Monash Uni comp site, so the Monash score down the righthand sidebar (in desktop view) are current FMI scores inclusive of the missed tip.


To the table and the seasons first "No Change" notice. West Coast again lead, increasing their margin as well... and all of it due to the collapse in Hawthorn's performance. Down a total of 147 points or 10% from their starting point this season.
RANKINGSPre:R 11
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1West Coast14011
2Hawthorn1363-15
3Sydney/SMFC135610
4Adelaide13136
5Geelong1279-20
6GWS1253-2
7North Melbourne1249-2
8W Bulldogs/FFC12321
9Port Adelaide11729
10Richmond11112
11Collingwood1047-1
12Fremantle991-27
13Melbourne950-9
14St Kilda92819
15Carlton87924
16Gold Coast763-25
17Essendon762-13
18Brisbane Lions7571

Again, at the base of the table, there are three adrift and Fremantle continue hurtling towards them. Dockers are also down heavily as you would expect. They have dropped over 220 points, a shade under 20%.

Thursday, 26 May 2016

WEEKLY UNPREDICTIONS

At the start of the season, the annual FMI pre-season predictions for end of year blog post was issued, along with a supplementary post of 'what if / bolter' scenarios.

And after round 7, these were revisited on this post, with dramatic changes noted, including the obvious drops in expectations of Fremantle and Richmond, as well as the rising Cats and Giants.
And also a general agreement that the final 8 could well be set.

But it was the large shift in expectations over 7 rounds that prompted the thought of how these changes tracked through the season to date.


Which brings us to the new page added to the top of the blog, just under the header - the swarms.

These present the percentage finishing expectations per team, week by week. Starting a the top left with 'P' as the preseason prediction, then across the page as the season plays out... post round 1 changes listed next, then post-round 2, and so on.

Down the table, obviously is the ladder finishing position. The numbers inside the grid are calculated percentage expected finishing positions based on the coming draw, opponents and the simulations for winning coming matches per team, run over multiple season iterations.

This presentation is club-by-club so you can easily see where any club is likely to finish as the weeks roll on.
Each chart set is in a group of three, with the option to scroll down to find more. You should also see the tabs at the bottom with the three next clubs abbreviated. Click on that and the data changes.

A classic example would Geelong.
This is a team not rated all that well by the FMI calculations before the season start, but with some sharp recruiting they have lead off to a great start, and the upward trend in the chart (abbreviated below) shows that.
Geelong
Pr1r2r3r4r5r6r7r8r9r10
11117487218
2411214281930
32912251511625
43132638147213
561371210111436
6815132021201224
7101523213125812
811162018212462
91710171384
10173963
1115
411
1283
1331
141
15
16
17
18

What it also shows is that after round 8, they were looking good things to be minor premiers. But the unexpected round 9 loss to Collingwood (which, lets face it Pies fans, was a huge upset) has knocked Geelong back a peg.
As before, these are full season emulations, so Geelong's loss must be coupled with wins to Sydney, GWS, North Melbourne and West Coast. The knock on effect of a loss is significant.

Similarly, you can see the lift the Cats received after a round one win against Hawthorn. From that they moved from a 61% chance of missing the finals to only 13.


So head on over to the SWARMS page and poke around.
Interesting ones to round 9 are
 - Melbourne and Port Adelaide, both hitting a ceiling at 9th-ish,
 - North Melbourne who hit the tough end of their draw now so a mid 8 finish is expected, and also,
 -  the precipitous decline of Fremantle - but not so far to be expected to finish 18th.