Thursday, 31 July 2014

19. Going For 'Home'

Nearly finals time in the AFL, and with the current top 8 as:
Sydney, Hawthorn, Geelong, Fremantle Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Essendon, Adelaide
...can anyone see that shifting?

Looking at 9th and 10th, the GAJ'er-less Suns wont get back. And Collingwood...? Tough run to the last 5 weeks. Remote chance at best.


THE TIPS:
All the home teams get the tipping nod this week.

Worth noting the 'Melbourne by 8' tip includes a home ground advantage bonus. This was applied because they play an interstate team.
Without that bonus, its Brisbane by 5... why no bonus you ask? Well, it is at the Docklands. Not a preferred 'home' ground for Melbourne.

Your call on which way this one goes.


MEZZOCULO INDEX:
Collingwood are our bad form loss leader as the Saints improve. Adelaide challenge GWS at the top of form level.


The above suggests the following tips might be different than above...
- Carlton, GWS and the Dogs to get closer than the losses  predicted.
- Adelaide to win by more than 25.
- North and the Suns to win by more.

Also, two teams way down on form - Collingwood tipped by 5 over Port Adelaide, but the Mezzoculo suggests the Power might just pinch this game.

Tuesday, 29 July 2014

18. Longest Upset Ever

As much as footy needs a good upset every once and a again to refresh itself, it is an interesting concept to have a lot of them (or near misses) in the one weekend.

A reminder...
HITS: St Kilda over Freo, Carlton over North, Richmond away over the Eagles, Brisbane by plenty over Gary-less Gold Coast, and Adleaide over the clipped winged Collingwood Magpies.
MISSES: GWS pushing Geelong to 7, Melbourne and the Bulldogs likewise with Port (3pts) and Essendon (7pts) respectively

8 of the 9 games were upsets or near upsets.

Can we spread them out a bit next time?

RESULTS:
All those upsets and near misses made for tipping   H E L L !

We collected only 4 correct, and an appalling MAPE of 45.4.

But what all those upsets do that is beneficial is adjust rankings significantly.

Three teams all lost 27 points this week... Fremantle, Port Adelaide and Collingwood - all top 8 ranked teams.
Other points losers from our top 8: Hawks, Roos and Cats.

And all the points fell to the bottom of the table; Saints, Giants, Lions, Demons, Blues and Bulldogs all double figure shifts.

Wonderful for competitive balance.


And in tracking the GWS's push for 17th, they gained more points but slipped a little relative to St Kilda, and now sit 10 points off bottom.

Thursday, 24 July 2014

18b. Stop The Idea Now

Hopng against hope that this is the final split round we see in football.
C'mon young Gil... make it happen. 


THE TIPS:
After last weeks upsets (and near upsets) #TrollRound continues.
Here are our efforts.

All of which reads as a good weekend of footy!


THE MEZZOCULO INDEX:

This clearly tips Adelaide to cause an upset over Collingwood, and Sydney and Hawthorn to be a real close tussle.
All other games should progress as planned, with margins possibly greater.