Monday, 25 July 2016

18. NOT NORMAL

Yes, the last post talked of a return to normal weekend footy. It also mentioned that tipping correctly this week was a huge task.
North in a tailspin. - Tailspin suspended with a win over the Pies.
The shape-shifting Saints that you cant pick week to week. - Winning formation this week.
Geelong and Adelaide in a game that could cost one of them a top 4 spot. - Cats win home.
The GWS playing away - can they win in Adelaide? - Why yes. Yes they can.

PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
North Melbourneby19ptsNorth Melbourneby40ptsCollingwood-9North Melbourne+7
Sydney/SMFCby46ptsSydney/SMFCby6ptsSydney/SMFC-12Carlton+14
Fremantleby8ptsGold Coastby24ptsGold Coast+18Fremantle-15
West Coastby48ptsWest Coastby6ptsWest Coast-19Melbourne+12
W Bulldogs/FFCby30ptsSt Kildaby15ptsW Bulldogs/FFC-16St Kilda+23
Geelongby2ptsGeelongby30ptsGeelong+10Adelaide-11
Essendonby15ptsBrisbane Lionsby37ptsEssendon-20Brisbane Lions+18
Hawthornby33ptsHawthornby70ptsHawthorn+14Richmond-21
Port Adelaideby2ptsGWSby19ptsPort Adelaide-8GWS+10

And of curse, you cant rely on Fremantle this year for anything other than 15th.

Who would have though that with first draft pick pride on the line, that the team with the most stability around its coaching staff, and that has by (all but) universal acknowledgement been noted as having played very well for a month - would lose so horribly to the ramshackle Lions?


The table that matters (to only ranking and stats lovers).
RANKINGSPre:R 19
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Adelaide1378-10
2Hawthorn137415
3Sydney/SMFC1325-12+1
4West Coast1319-39-1
5GWS131311
6Geelong128911
7North Melbourne12408+1
8W Bulldogs/FFC1220-16-1
9Port Adelaide1193-7
10Collingwood1044-8
11Richmond1014-21
12Melbourne101413+1
13Fremantle999-14-1
14St Kilda96924
15Carlton90014
16Gold Coast84019
17Brisbane Lions69819+1
18Essendon686-20-1

Adelaide retain to, but only just, as the Hawks loom large.
A few other minor changes in the rankings, with the inevitable swap of places at the foot following sad Sunday.


And worth noting we are now just over 75% of the way through the season, and we have had 34 games with margins of 60 points or more (see the full list below). This is 71% of the record set in 2015.
Also the margins have reduced.

Some small progress... maybe.

2016 BLOW OUT BIN
RNDHOMEGBPAWAYGBPMARGIN
MARGINS OVER140pts02015 mark0of benchmark
MARGINS OVER120pts02015 mark10%of benchmark
MARGINS OVER100pts32015 mark475%of benchmark
6Geelong2518168Gold Coast7648Geelongby120
12Essendon6743Hawthorn2313151Hawthornby108
8West Coast2012132St Kilda31129West Coastby103
MARGINS OVER80pts82015 mark1747%of benchmark
8GWS2217149Gold Coast9458GWSby91
11Adelaide1919133St Kilda6945Adelaideby88
4GWS2219151Port Adelaide91165GWSby86
12Brisbane Lions91064Fremantle239147Fremantleby83
7Sydney/SMFC2015135Essendon71254Sydney/SMFCby81
MARGINS OVER60pts342015 mark4871%of benchmark
1Sydney/SMFC1825133Collingwood71153Sydney/SMFCby80
11Fremantle206126Essendon61147Fremantleby79
17Brisbane Lions91367GWS2214146GWSby79
8Brisbane Lions10565Collingwood2023143Collingwoodby78
15West Coast2010130Essendon71052West Coastby78
7Port Adelaide2110136Brisbane Lions71759Port Adelaideby77
10West Coast2012132Gold Coast71355West Coastby77
6GWS2414158Hawthorn121183GWSby75
9Gold Coast11874Adelaide2217149Adelaideby75
7Gold Coast14387Melbourne2416160Melbourneby73
11North Melbourne1816124Richmond71254North Melbourneby70
18Hawthorn1618114Richmond51444Hawthornby70
3Geelong1817125Brisbane Lions71456Geelongby69
5Collingwood2210142Essendon11773Collingwoodby69
4West Coast1817125Richmond9357West Coastby68
9North Melbourne1711113Carlton61046North Melbourneby67
11Collingwood71658Port Adelaide1911125Port Adelaideby67
1W Bulldogs/FFC1513103Fremantle5838W Bulldogs/FFCby65
1West Coast2610166Brisbane Lions1512102West Coastby64
6West Coast1816124Collingwood9862West Coastby62
14GWS1819127Carlton91165GWSby62
1Gold Coast1719121Essendon9660Gold Coastby61
3Port Adelaide1710112Essendon7951Port Adelaideby61
2Carlton101171Sydney/SMFC2011131Sydney/SMFCby60
9Melbourne1914128Brisbane Lions91468Melbourneby60
16Carlton7547Adelaide1611107Adelaideby60