Friday, 18 January 2019

AFLW 2019 - ROUND 1

Friday, 11 January 2019

AFLW 2019 - PRE-SEASON

The new, expanded AFLW Season 2019 starts soon, and what ever the merits of conferences (that aren't) and the 7 round season (that isn't), this august and overlooked blog will be running the usual analyses all over again.


RANKINGS

The current, pre-round 1 rankings of the teams sits as per below. As a point of order, the new teams, Geelong and North Melbourne, have both had their initial rankings set at 1000 points, as is the standard FMI practice.

RANKING TABLES
BEFORE ROUND1
1W Bu1061
2Bris1060
3Melb1041
4Adel1026
5Coll1009
6Nort1000
7Geel1000
8GWS932
9Frem929
10Carl896


It is important to consider the below when looking at the rankings, the impact on them via the the expansion of the number of teams, and their validity.
- Geelong and North Melbourne have added close to another 70 players to the full roster of all AFLW players.
- Setting the 1000 point limit is an FMI rule, but it is not indicative of performance. The lesson from GWS and Gold Coast was to adjust the ranking to 500 for tipping those games margins, and more closely align those first year teams with performance.
- It is very likely the 1000 ranking points for the new teams will be adjusted to 500, and the right to do that is reserved.
- The new teams have also drained the playing stocks of the other eight established teams, so what was a rating for them after 2018 is also very likely to shift downward in 2019.

All in all, its going to be a difficult season to tip accurately (and next year as well with more teams coming in).


FIXTURE ASSESSMENT

As per the regular Men's season fixture assessment, and the one applied to previous AFLW fixtures, the standard FMI assessment has been applied to 2019, with the blow outcome.

SEASON T.D.I
RNK
TEAM
LADDER POSITION
FMI RANK PTS
A-H BONUS
TOUGH DRAW INDEX
1W Bulldogs/FFC110612000.75
2Geelongnew10002000.58
3Fremantle7929-1000.43
4Carlton889600.43
5Melbourne3104100.23
6Brisbane Lions210601000.06
7GWS4932-100-0.23
8North Melbournenew1000-100-0.66
9Adelaide51026-100-0.77
10Collingwood61009-100-0.81


The usual methodology here employs team ratings along with home/away game factors. The previously mentioned rubbery-ness of the ratings points will also alter the above. If the new teams are 2012 GWS-esque, then those that play North and Geelong will have a benefit.


Also... something newly introduced to the FMI blog for the 2019 seasons (Mens and Womens), is the Next Games Tough Draw Index (TDI) assessment.
This will appear on the normal round specific page and look as below.

NEXT 3 T.D.I
ROUNDS 1 TO 3
Adel-0.42
Bris-0.60
Carl0.34
Coll0.42
Frem0.14
Geel0.92
GWS-0.47
Melb0.16
Nort-0.66
W Bu1.04

In the example above, you can see the Bulldogs have the toughest matches for rounds 1-3, with Geelong next.
North and Brisbane have a relatively easy start.

The above table will be on every round page for the AFLW for rounds 1 through to 5.

In the longer Mens AFL completion, it will look at the upcoming 5 rounds, and run from round 1 through to round 19.


SEASON PREDICTION

Once again, another 'regular FMI preseason analysis', and once again caveat emptor as the below is all based on teams rankings and they are so wobbly that they would challenge Homer's gut.


2019 PREDICTION - POSITION PROBABILITIES2019 PREDICTION - POSITION GROUPS
% EXPECTED POSITION12345678910% EXPECTED WINSTop 2Top 4Last 4
1Brisbane Lions1918181611863101Brisbane Lions377010
2Collingwood2318151211874212Collingwood416814
3Adelaide14171715131074213Adelaide316315
4W Bulldogs/FFC16151414121185314W Bulldogs/FFC316017
5Melbourne141414131412106315Melbourne285520
6North Melbourne1010111213131210726North Melbourne204331
7Geelong4579121517161167Geelong92549
8GWS1135101318241788GWS21167
9Fremantle12358122034169Fremantle1582
10Carlton11248196510Carlton0196

What is of note is that the 5th ranked Collingwood, determined to have the easiest schedule, are estimated to finish in the top 2.
Following this thinking, Adelaide (4th ranked, 2nd easiest draw) are likely to finish 3rd, and the Western Bulldogs (top ranked, hardest draw) slip to the 4th best.

And again, theory suggests this, but the expansion will alter the practicalities.


ROUND 1

The tips for Round 1 will be posted next week.