Tuesday, 2 September 2014

23. Not Done Yet

Season 2014 is over for 10 clubs, and also for regular tipping comps.
For us we round out the normal tipping season with 142 from the 198 games (yes that includes the draw, as most bog-standard tipping comps count it too), or 71.4% correct.

Our real measure remains the Monash Uni competition where our method sits at equal second on 1809 points, just 3 points behind the leader.

And of course, the Monash system continues through the finals, so therefore we also continue into the finals.

But first, this past week.

Another handy 7 from 9, with the full 9 spoilt by the Richmond revival and the GWS holding on against Footscray.

Close margin tipping as well, with 3 games out by just under 3 goals, and as predicted, the close one of the round, a 3 point margin error in the drawn game.

Sydney not winning means the Hawks regain top spot on the back of their better than expected demolishing of the fading Collingwood.

Also, Port Adelaide were honourable in defeat against Fremantle, earning a rise over North Melbourne, who also did not perform to expectations so drop a spot.

Our best 8 has Adelaide ans West Coast in 7th and 8th, two teams who did not make the AFL finals.
In their stead are Richmond and Essendon, bot of whom have dome enough to win matches all year, but usually by less than or just more than expected, so our rankings don't boost them by that much to be in our best 8.

Looking at those 4 teams we can look back at performance vs expectation.

In all 22 matches that each team played:

So, as oft stated with our rankings, if you better expectations (win by more than expected, win against the tip, or lose by less than expected) your ranking point tally increases.
With Adelaide and West Coast bettering the expectation more than not, they were able to rank higher than Richmond and Essendon.

Thursday, 28 August 2014

23. Last Call

Last of the home and away season and n the back of a perfect 9 last week, its time to double up and go for 9 again this week.

Will the close one of the week really be Carlton v Essendon?
Will Richmond's finals dreams end at Stadium Australia as predicted?
Can West Coast win to leg itself up into finals contention?
Can Adelaide put enough runs on the board to build percentage to pinch 8th?
Will Collingwood pull of the impossible, win and see other fall around them to Bradbury an 8th?


If all the games finish of as tipped, the ladder will be as per right.

West Coast sneaking into the 8 on percentage from Adelaide, Richmond and Collingwood.

The Bulldogs and Suns finish above Carlton, and the Giants are not wooden spooners.

Also, the finals would be:

 -   West Coast at the Adelaide Oval with Port Adelaide, and
 -   North Melbourne and Essendon (at the MCG?)

 -   Sydney hosting Fremantle, and
 -   Hawthorn and Geelong... all over again.

Monday, 25 August 2014

22. (Almost) Still The One!

During the year, we looked back at our tipping for the season and wondered why a bare 70% return is something we should be proud of. Surely a better number would be closer to 80%.

In comparing to others that use mathematical models, we actually compared reasonably well. Also around that time, we were also stick just outside the top 10 of the Monash Uni tipping competition,and convinced breaking into that elite top 5 was not possible.

Potential reviews to the tipping system were proposed for an off season rejig. Plans were made and theories expanded upon.

But late last week, we received a tweet that made a difference. A regular user of our tips in her local competition tweeted that
   "I'm winning the tipping!!".
Such a filip!

And over the months our performance in the Monash Uni stakes have risen as well. And then, we actually achieve something this week that has eluded us all this season. We tipped the full round correct - a lovely big Nine! And also the data from the Monash site says our points (currently 1732) would be enough to place us 2nd, just 1 point off the top.

So happy to see the system working... hold all those review plans!!

As it stands with 1 round to play (plus 9 finals games)...
Footy Maths13571.4%
MAFL Online (best)13672.0%
MAFL Online (worst)10756.6%
Monash Uni Comp13370.4%
Footy Forecaster12968.3%

(PS... yes we are actually 9th, but only because a few tips were not entered in before the lockout, and dear reader, you know our numbers are here every week before the round starts). 

A nine from nine for the first time in the year, and also two games tipped to within a goal, and another within 2 goals... solid tipping.

So with our first perfect Nine, and almost 'The One' on top of the Monash system (blowing our own trumpet) behind us, lets return to the rankings table.

But speaking of One... we have a new rankings leader with Sydney now top of the tree.
A better than expected win over the Bulldogs has then up 14 points, and enough to sneak first from Hawthorn.

This is the first time the Hawks have been displaced since mid 2012.

Also changing places are Port Adelaide up to 5th, while Geelong drop to 6th.

Further down the table, another big drop to Collingwood, after failing to meet expectations against GWS, who of course did better than expected, and collected another 23 points.

Richmond's winning streak is yet to materialise into an 8th ranking, as both Adelaide and West Coast also improve.