Thursday, 28 August 2014

23. Last Call

Last of the home and away season and n the back of a perfect 9 last week, its time to double up and go for 9 again this week.

Will the close one of the week really be Carlton v Essendon?
Will Richmond's finals dreams end at Stadium Australia as predicted?
Can West Coast win to leg itself up into finals contention?
Can Adelaide put enough runs on the board to build percentage to pinch 8th?
Will Collingwood pull of the impossible, win and see other fall around them to Bradbury an 8th?


THE TIPS:


If all the games finish of as tipped, the ladder will be as per right.

West Coast sneaking into the 8 on percentage from Adelaide, Richmond and Collingwood.

The Bulldogs and Suns finish above Carlton, and the Giants are not wooden spooners.

Also, the finals would be:

Eliminations:
 -   West Coast at the Adelaide Oval with Port Adelaide, and
 -   North Melbourne and Essendon (at the MCG?)

Qualifiers:
 -   Sydney hosting Fremantle, and
 -   Hawthorn and Geelong... all over again.


Monday, 25 August 2014

22. (Almost) Still The One!

During the year, we looked back at our tipping for the season and wondered why a bare 70% return is something we should be proud of. Surely a better number would be closer to 80%.

In comparing to others that use mathematical models, we actually compared reasonably well. Also around that time, we were also stick just outside the top 10 of the Monash Uni tipping competition,and convinced breaking into that elite top 5 was not possible.

Potential reviews to the tipping system were proposed for an off season rejig. Plans were made and theories expanded upon.

But late last week, we received a tweet that made a difference. A regular user of our tips in her local competition tweeted that
   "I'm winning the tipping!!".
Such a filip!

And over the months our performance in the Monash Uni stakes have risen as well. And then, we actually achieve something this week that has eluded us all this season. We tipped the full round correct - a lovely big Nine! And also the data from the Monash site says our points (currently 1732) would be enough to place us 2nd, just 1 point off the top.

So happy to see the system working... hold all those review plans!!

As it stands with 1 round to play (plus 9 finals games)...
CorrectW%
Footy Maths13571.4%
MAFL Online (best)13672.0%
MAFL Online (worst)10756.6%
Monash Uni Comp13370.4%
Footy Forecaster12968.3%

(PS... yes we are actually 9th, but only because a few tips were not entered in before the lockout, and dear reader, you know our numbers are here every week before the round starts). 


THE RESULTS:
A nine from nine for the first time in the year, and also two games tipped to within a goal, and another within 2 goals... solid tipping.

So with our first perfect Nine, and almost 'The One' on top of the Monash system (blowing our own trumpet) behind us, lets return to the rankings table.

But speaking of One... we have a new rankings leader with Sydney now top of the tree.
A better than expected win over the Bulldogs has then up 14 points, and enough to sneak first from Hawthorn.

This is the first time the Hawks have been displaced since mid 2012.

Also changing places are Port Adelaide up to 5th, while Geelong drop to 6th.

Further down the table, another big drop to Collingwood, after failing to meet expectations against GWS, who of course did better than expected, and collected another 23 points.

Richmond's winning streak is yet to materialise into an 8th ranking, as both Adelaide and West Coast also improve.

Friday, 22 August 2014

22. Rise And Decline

The last of this blog is being written on the sidelines of another AFL International Cup game, using the blogger app on the iPhone.

It has been a good few weeks with the AFLIC in Melbourne. It's been fun to watch these men from around the world playing football in the spirit it was designed. Having a go. Playing the ball, not the man. 

Even if some teams have copped pastings, the spirits have always been high, and the post-match goodwill has been excellent to see. 
Post match photo and camaraderie : Finland and Japan

No clich├ęd responses, no surly attitudes or hubris. 
And certainly no court action!

We have written earlier in the year about enjoying the local and VFL football in preference to AFL football. After another two recent AFL games, it is still more enjoyable, and so much more friendly, at this level. 

Long may it grow.

Let football rise around the world.


THE TIPS:
Lots of reasonably large margins this week... are they all locks?

Of these, you would almost never call North Melbourne a lock, considering how often 'Norf' turns up to play.
Geelong and Hawthorn looks to be a real great game, and perhaps not the Hawthorn 3 goal win we have.
Fremantle have been known for late season trip ups (or have they done that already losing to St Kilda), and Brisbane can click every once and a while, particularly at home.

The less said about Collingwood the better...

No on second thoughts, lets go again after this effort.
Collingwood are in a clear, big decline this year and we have them 13th.
Will a 'fan forum' event fix the issues? Doubt it.
Will re-arranging the assistant coaching deck chairs be the answer?

Or is it all Eddies fault?

Let the Collingwood implosion... BEGIN!


And there is no Mezzoculo Index, as we have no scope to estimate each teams next 3 games... because there are only 2 regular season games ahead.