Tuesday, 27 September 2016

26. NEVER EASY

Another pair of finals and another week of devastation over at the Monash tipping competition. Of the top 10, only 2 scored a correct tip, with the rest not getting anything right at all.

All further grist to the mill on how even this finals series is. And may or may not influence the non-argument around 'the pre-finals bye is destroying/boosting [Team X's] finals series' tosh.

PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
GWSby29ptsW Bulldogs/FFCby6ptsGWS-13W Bulldogs/FFC+20
Sydney/SMFCby10ptsSydney/SMFCby37ptsGeelong-11Sydney/SMFC+18

Sadly a derby Grand Final will need to wait for another year. On the plus side, we have the previous holder of the longest Premiership drought to play the current holder of that dubious title.

We also pit the two alternate titled teams together as its /SMFC vs /FFC.

The table shows not much, other than Geelong went bad enough to finish a spot further down. Eliminated Eagles get bumped up to third.
But really, its all so close from 3rd through to 6th.
RANKINGSPre:R 27
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Sydney/SMFC144319
2Adelaide14010
3GWS1378-13
4West Coast13250+1
5Geelong1316-10-1
6Hawthorn13040
7W Bulldogs/FFC124521
8Port Adelaide11820
9North Melbourne11750
10Collingwood10960
11Melbourne10220
12St Kilda10170
13Richmond9720
14Fremantle9020
15Carlton8860
16Gold Coast8560
17Essendon6930
18Brisbane Lions6290

Thursday, 22 September 2016

26. NEW TERRITORY

So one of a pair of clubs will be in a first AFL Grand Final.
And we learn who that is on Saturday.

The other two have already played off in an AFL Grand Final.

...and yes, there is a bit of 'being pedantic' about AFL vs VFL grand finals.


So as alluded to in the last blog post, the hot tips from the FMI system say its a Derby Grand Final.
HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
PFGWS31v3W Bulldogs/FFCShowGWSby29pts
PFGeelong16v28Sydney/SMFCMCGSydney/SMFCby10pts


...but the tips have been wrong about the Bulldogs all finals.
...and that hoary old chestnut about Sydney not handling the bigger MCG all that well.

And stuff.

And the form indicator leans to those tipped, so there is less joy for the non-tipped.
But we all do love an underdog story, so - consider wisely.


Finally...
As posted earlier in the week, the predictors of who play in the grand final, and what percent chance to win it.
TOP 8 - % CHANCE TO PLAY IN WEEK...
Adelaide100100
Geelong10001004119
GWS10001007742
Hawthorn100100
North Melbourne100
Sydney/SMFC1001001005933
W Bulldogs/FFC100100100237
West Coast100
WK 1WK 2WK 3WK 4GF Win

Enjoy your footy.

Wednesday, 21 September 2016

25. TWO GOALS OR TWO

Predicting winners, let alone margins, when finals roll around is a tricky proposition for maths based models and normal tipsters alike.
The carnage seen this week on the Monash Uni scoreboard is testament enough of that. Of the top 20 tipsters, only one selected both winners, and three didn't get a winner at all (not including the two who failed to tip).

So with no qualms, here is the 50% return from this week.
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Sydney/SMFCby12ptsSydney/SMFCby36ptsSydney/SMFC+14Adelaide-9
Hawthornby12ptsW Bulldogs/FFCby23ptsHawthorn-19W Bulldogs/FFC+15

Margin predictions, each of two, both set for two goal margins, ended up as out by two goals, or the opposite result by about two goals..

And all the above highlights (in combination with your regular AFL top eight as listed in the standard ladder PLUS the rankings table below) just how even the finals have been this year.
And how hard it is to get a feel for who will be the eventual premier.
RANKINGSPre:R 26
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Sydney/SMFC142415+1
2Adelaide1401-9-1
3GWS13910
4Geelong13260
5West Coast13250
6Hawthorn1304-18
7W Bulldogs/FFC122416
8Port Adelaide11820
9North Melbourne11750
10Collingwood10960
11Melbourne10220
12St Kilda10170
13Richmond9720
14Fremantle9020
15Carlton8860
16Gold Coast8560
17Essendon6930
18Brisbane Lions6290


And to look at the next week and run some predictive scenarios...
TOP 8 - % CHANCE TO PLAY IN WEEK...
Adelaide100100
Geelong10001004119
GWS10001007742
Hawthorn100100
North Melbourne100
Sydney/SMFC1001001005933
W Bulldogs/FFC100100100237
West Coast100
WK 1WK 2WK 3WK 4GF Win


The four teams are predicted to appear in the Grand Final as above, with the GWS / Bulldogs split as 77 / 23 and the Cats / Swans split as 41 / 59.

After that, the win% for the Grand Final has also been calculated as above, with GWS getting the highest chance, and most likely from a Sydney Derby Grand Final.

Which would be brilliant, because...