Wednesday, 29 June 2016

15. TWO WEEKS

It only took two weeks for the sports radio folk with not much to talk about to be reminded to decry the 3 x 6 game bye weeks.

Prompted by a Scott-brother whine about losing to a team coming off the bye?
Maybe. Also, maybe Scott-brother needs to look internally at his teams man-management.

Prompted by the odd scheduling?
Also a factor. Who ever set the 6 games to be played across 4 days, and the Sunday game moved back to after 3pm, needs a stern talking to.


But wait... don't run away yet!
The tips!
HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
RND 15
West Coast-17v-43EssendonSubiWest Coastby78pts
Port Adelaide11v-17RichmondAdelPort Adelaideby25pts
Gold Coast-18v27St KildaCarrSt Kildaby5pts
Sydney/SMFC4v-5W Bulldogs/FFCSCGSydney/SMFCby24pts
Carlton8v-5CollingwoodMCGCollingwoodby14pts
Melbourne27v32AdelaideMCGAdelaideby27pts
-v--
-v--
-v--


Cant really see any upsets there using the form guide as an indicator.
Except maybe for Carlton.

Interesting for Adelaide as they have the first of two games at the MCG, and they look certain finalists. Time to familiarise themselves, you would think.

Monday, 27 June 2016

14. WE FLY TO THE TOP

After Hawthorn played the Suns, and played under the level expected of them and their ranking, the last challenger for top ranking position was done for this week. Meaning the provisional new top ranked team declared n Thursday remains in that slot.

PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Adelaideby22ptsAdelaideby33ptsAdelaide+20North Melbourne-4
Collingwoodby9ptsCollingwoodby48ptsCollingwood+14Fremantle-14
Richmondby48ptsRichmondby42ptsRichmond-14Brisbane Lions+1
GWSby54ptsGWSby62ptsGWS+14Carlton-4
Geelongby39ptsSt Kildaby3ptsSt Kilda+21Geelong-15
Hawthornby71ptsHawthornby26ptsHawthorn-14Gold Coast+14

But before the new leaders, other events from the weekend conspired to produce another 100% correct miss. Those damn Cats.

Still 5 for 6 is OK and a MAE of around 25 is solid too.


The Crows picked up 20 points to move to 1377 and become the latest rankings leader thsi season, after Hawthorn and West Coast.

RANKINGSPre:R 15
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Adelaide137720+2
2West Coast13660-1
3Hawthorn1347-13-1
4Sydney/SMFC13390
5GWS131315+1
6Geelong1294-15-1
7North Melbourne1255-4
8W Bulldogs/FFC12260
9Port Adelaide11840
10Richmond1058-14
11Fremantle1027-14
12Collingwood101815
13Melbourne9880
14St Kilda94922
15Carlton883-3
16Gold Coast78814
17Brisbane Lions7152
18Essendon7090


The below chart shows a slow and steady climb by Adelaide to top, with the gradual decline of the Eagles and a ore pronounced one by the Hawks opening the door.


It would be unfair to write-off the Hawks at this stage, but that decline (seemingly arrested in the last few rounds) has brought them back to the pack. They do remain capable of top spot again, and last year highlighted that where they were seen to kick strongly in the last few rounds and re-assert their competition dominance.