26. NEVER EASY

Another pair of finals and another week of devastation over at the Monash tipping competition. Of the top 10, only 2 scored a correct tip, with the rest not getting anything right at all.

All further grist to the mill on how even this finals series is. And may or may not influence the non-argument around 'the pre-finals bye is destroying/boosting [Team X's] finals series' tosh.

PREDICTED RESULT				ACTUAL RESULT				RATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
GWS	by	29	pts	W Bulldogs/FFC	by	6	pts	GWS	-13	W Bulldogs/FFC	+20
Sydney/SMFC	by	10	pts	Sydney/SMFC	by	37	pts	Geelong	-11	Sydney/SMFC	+18

Sadly a derby Grand Final will need to wait for another year. On the plus side, we have the previous holder of the longest Premiership drought to play the current holder of that dubious title.

We also pit the two alternate titled teams together as its /SMFC vs /FFC.

The table shows not much, other than Geelong went bad enough to finish a spot further down. Eliminated Eagles get bumped up to third.
But really, its all so close from 3rd through to 6th.

RANKINGS			Pre:	R 27
TEAM		PTS	ΔPTS	ΔRK
1	Sydney/SMFC	1443	19
2	Adelaide	1401	0
3	GWS	1378	-13
4	West Coast	1325	0	+1
5	Geelong	1316	-10	-1
6	Hawthorn	1304	0
7	W Bulldogs/FFC	1245	21
8	Port Adelaide	1182	0
9	North Melbourne	1175	0
10	Collingwood	1096	0
11	Melbourne	1022	0
12	St Kilda	1017	0
13	Richmond	972	0
14	Fremantle	902	0
15	Carlton	886	0
16	Gold Coast	856	0
17	Essendon	693	0
18	Brisbane Lions	629	0

26. NEW TERRITORY

So one of a pair of clubs will be in a first AFL Grand Final.
And we learn who that is on Saturday.

The other two have already played off in an AFL Grand Final.

...and yes, there is a bit of 'being pedantic' about AFL vs VFL grand finals.


So as alluded to in the last blog post, the hot tips from the FMI system say its a Derby Grand Final.

	HOME				AWAY	VENUE	PREDICTED RESULT
PF	GWS	31	v	3	W Bulldogs/FFC	Show	GWS	by	29	pts
PF	Geelong	16	v	28	Sydney/SMFC	MCG	Sydney/SMFC	by	10	pts

...but the tips have been wrong about the Bulldogs all finals.

...and that hoary old chestnut about Sydney not handling the bigger MCG all that well.

And stuff.

And the form indicator leans to those tipped, so there is less joy for the non-tipped.
But we all do love an underdog story, so - consider wisely.


Finally...
As posted earlier in the week, the predictors of who play in the grand final, and what percent chance to win it.

TOP 8 - % CHANCE TO PLAY IN WEEK...
Adelaide	100	100
Geelong	100	0	100	41	19
GWS	100	0	100	77	42
Hawthorn	100	100
North Melbourne	100
Sydney/SMFC	100	100	100	59	33
W Bulldogs/FFC	100	100	100	23	7
West Coast	100
	WK 1	WK 2	WK 3	WK 4	GF Win

Enjoy your footy.

25. TWO GOALS OR TWO

Predicting winners, let alone margins, when finals roll around is a tricky proposition for maths based models and normal tipsters alike.
The carnage seen this week on the Monash Uni scoreboard is testament enough of that. Of the top 20 tipsters, only one selected both winners, and three didn't get a winner at all (not including the two who failed to tip).

So with no qualms, here is the 50% return from this week.

PREDICTED RESULT				ACTUAL RESULT				RATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Sydney/SMFC	by	12	pts	Sydney/SMFC	by	36	pts	Sydney/SMFC	+14	Adelaide	-9
Hawthorn	by	12	pts	W Bulldogs/FFC	by	23	pts	Hawthorn	-19	W Bulldogs/FFC	+15

Margin predictions, each of two, both set for two goal margins, ended up as out by two goals, or the opposite result by about two goals..

And all the above highlights (in combination with your regular AFL top eight as listed in the standard ladder PLUS the rankings table below) just how even the finals have been this year.
And how hard it is to get a feel for who will be the eventual premier.

RANKINGS			Pre:	R 26
TEAM		PTS	ΔPTS	ΔRK
1	Sydney/SMFC	1424	15	+1
2	Adelaide	1401	-9	-1
3	GWS	1391	0
4	Geelong	1326	0
5	West Coast	1325	0
6	Hawthorn	1304	-18
7	W Bulldogs/FFC	1224	16
8	Port Adelaide	1182	0
9	North Melbourne	1175	0
10	Collingwood	1096	0
11	Melbourne	1022	0
12	St Kilda	1017	0
13	Richmond	972	0
14	Fremantle	902	0
15	Carlton	886	0
16	Gold Coast	856	0
17	Essendon	693	0
18	Brisbane Lions	629	0

And to look at the next week and run some predictive scenarios...

TOP 8 - % CHANCE TO PLAY IN WEEK...
Adelaide	100	100
Geelong	100	0	100	41	19
GWS	100	0	100	77	42
Hawthorn	100	100
North Melbourne	100
Sydney/SMFC	100	100	100	59	33
W Bulldogs/FFC	100	100	100	23	7
West Coast	100
	WK 1	WK 2	WK 3	WK 4	GF Win

The four teams are predicted to appear in the Grand Final as above, with the GWS / Bulldogs split as 77 / 23 and the Cats / Swans split as 41 / 59.

After that, the win% for the Grand Final has also been calculated as above, with GWS getting the highest chance, and most likely from a Sydney Derby Grand Final.

Which would be brilliant, because...

Just imagine the arglebargle and fooforall if the first Derby Grand Final was GWS vs Sydney

and not Crows/Power or Eagles/Dockers #hoooo

— F　M　l (@Footy_Maths) September 17, 2016