Thursday, 18 September 2014

26. Finalising the Finals

2 more games this week before we know the final two to fight for the ultimate prize.
And while the fairy tale runs of Port Adelaide and North Melbourne have continues through to Preliminary final weekend, can you go one further?

Our tips are...

THE TIPS:

The above indicates the absolute favoritism that the top two teams bring to the last two weeks of football... predicted 4 to 5 goal wins.

The recent past form indications from our calculations have the teams as;

      Sydney (+9)  vs  North Melbourne (-5)
Both teams just doing OK by our calculations, and there should be no serious challenge to the prediction above.

      Hawthorn (+6)  vs  Port Adelaide (+73)
Port are bringing in a serious head of steam into this game. It is the one most likely for an upset. Are they able to maintain the Monty Burns-esque  finals campaign 'momentum of a runaway freight train'?

Wednesday, 17 September 2014

25. Straight Sets

Yep, no doubt you have heard the details now, but here is where I firt saw it, prior to be listed on the Seven coverage post game.

Which means we only have four teams left, to be sorted out next week.

As to tipping, we got one right (and very close), but missed the rolling thunder that is PortMentum.

RESULTS:
North galloped away nicely , but were eventually dragged back to be a lot closer to our tipped margin.


With only 6 active teams in the finals, there was little movement in the board, other than Geelong dropping 5 points and a position on the table.

Adelaide the beneficiary. We know rank them 6th, the highest they have been all season.

At 1229 points, it is also the highest rankings points score for Adelaide in the Sanderson coaching tenure since the end of 2012, when the club had finished as beaten Prelim finalists and had Tippett playing, and before that whole issue blew-up.

Friday, 12 September 2014

25. 4 to 2 to Meet 2

Earlier this week we posted about two more instances of the 30 point rule. One where it applied, and one where is was breached.

After asking for a refresher of the data, the Champion Data twitter account sent this update for 2014.

This also prompted 'The Black Cat' to investigate a little further, with these two tweets highlighting when you can 'put down your glasses' at the footy.

Thanks guys - great stats!

Psst - for everyone else ... try not to think too hard about it... its only footy!

AND SPEAKING of nice graphics, go have a look at Goalsneaker... some interesting visual representations of football.


THE TIPS

Somehow we agree with David King, in that we are tipping North Melbourne.
... just.
By 0.8 points ( so rounded to 1). Second closest predicted margin of the season.

As to Fremantle, we expect a three goal win


As to any sense of past form, we rate the match-ups as:

Geelong (-13) vs North Melbourne (+1) ... making us consider this a strong chance of North winning.
Fremantle (+11) vs Port Adelaide (+28) ... setting this game up to be closer than predicted.

Finals football - not easy to tip.