Round 9: Content, Content, CONTENT!

Also known as: ...who is the team that slots into the papers 'must talk about' window this week?

This big weekend of footy is now closed, and all of a sudden the papers are full of Richmond. Yeah, that's right, all of a sudden its Tigers, Tigers, Tigers! (and this, and this, all in one paper).
With a little perspective, they currently sit 12th on the AFL ladder, and 13th in our rankings. The world has not suddenly chosen Richmond as flag favourite... yet.

We would like to say the papers should be full of Collingwood stories after winning against Adelaide and regaining the FootyMaths table leadership (as below).
But that would be a redundant statement... as we can see here, here, here, here, here (!?!), here, here and here. The little paper (as in 'little of thought') has that angle covered!

There is your flag favourite, right there! Collingwood, plain and simple (insert obvious joke here).
You would also add in Adelaide and West Coast (as home finals will be important) and Essendon... surely!

And on the subject of the Bombers... how daft was this as a pre-game narrative? Surely any other angle was also worth a run?
Apologies to The Age for using you in the above links... you are by no means the worst offender!

Back to the results... and again the FootyMaths Institute's algorithms have gone very close to the correct tip, with 4 close ones here;
 - the Geelong tip...         off by 11pts,
 - the St. Kilda tip...       off by  9pts,
 - the North Melbourne tip... off by  8pts, and
 - the Collingwood tip...     off by  2pts

Our return this week: A big 8 from 9, boosting the return rate to 73% correct.


Ninth round results:

Two more games in the Blow-out Bin this week, with a not unexpected Essendon crunching of the Giants by 66pts, and a completely unexpected Tigers triumph of the Hawks by 62pts.

Strongest Gains:
The biggest gain of the week comes from Richmond who have claimed their biggest scalp for a while. A 19pt pick-up after the 62 point win over the Hawks.

Essendon also gained 12pts after beating up on the new kids ...typical!

The last gain of nearly any significance was a 7pt increase by Port Adelaide, who are now eyeing off Melbourne in 15th.

Biggest Drop:
The Hawks, blown out of the air by Richmond, dropped 11pts to be this weeks biggest loser.

Geelong again lost 11 points (and the ladder leadership) after an unconvincing win against the Bulldogs.

Gold Coast, Melbourne and GWS all continue their free-fall in 2012, as they dropped 13pts, 10pts and 11pts respectively.


Table Changes:
While we can't call out "all change" as railways staff had in the past, we can say there has been plenty of movement this week... including a new ladder leader.

Collingwood re-take ownership of the table, with a 7pt margin over Geelong. Close margins may mean the top position may still change as the season progresses.

Essendon also climb 2 spots from 11th to 9th after this weeks win, and shuffle Adelaide and North Melbourne down the table.

The log-jam battling for 8th now consists of the Bulldogs down to Richmond in 13th, all separated by less than 100pts... Plenty of changes to come!

There is also only 108pts splitting Carlton in 4th from Sydney in 7th. Melbourne and Port Adelaide are also only 19pts apart at the foot of the table too.

Round 9: Don't Panic!

Welcome back, dear reader, to the Guide... the FootyMaths Institiute's own version of how to measure and tip AFL teams, broadcast via the Sub-Etha.

This week, the AFL does indeed dish up a few great games...
::Adelaide v Collingwood.
   From the depths of a horror 2011 season, the Crows have emerged to be flag favourites* and real contenders. The quality of the Pies game is also improving as the season progresses.

::Richmond v Hawthorn.
   There is no denying that Hawthorn are a finely engineered outfit, and equally there is no denying the heart and spirit at Tigerland. They are now no longer 'mostly harmless'.

::St. Kilda v Sydney.
   (Once known as the Lakeside Derby... that's Daarby) Both teams have a record for dour hard football, but this season with two new coaches... the shackles are off!

::The Western Derby.
   (This one is the Durrby, over there). Do we need to say more about the intensity of the contest?


In Round 9, Essendon are hosted by the Giants as the AFL introduces us to the 'Venue at the End of the Universe', the Sydney Showgrounds... the latest venue for football in Australia.

Stadium Sponsors Product

Known for sponsorship purposes as "Crazy Vlaclav's Place of Automobiles Stadium".

This will become the 42nd venue to have hosted VFL / AFL football, and joins the illustrious footballing pantheon that also includes such memorable venues as Euroa, Bruce Stadium, Yallourn and Yarraville Oval).

It also proves that, at least from a venues perspective, that the AFL has finally arrived at the answer to Life, the Universe and Everything.

Don't Panic!  Here are the Round 9 predictions...
The close one of the round tipped by the FootyMaths Supercomputer is...

A 3 point victory to the Magpies Power over the Gold Coast Suns.

To the tips...

Only 2 big losses calculated for this week, but they may not end up in the Blow-Out Bin...
 - The Blues to defeat Melbourne, and
 - Essendon to defeat the GWS
both by 42 points (each of two... thanks Peter).


And for those of you playing along at home, the post title and content has the odd Douglas Adams references sprinkled through it, as today is Towel Day.
Bonus points if you can spot them all, answers on an envelope addressed to Andy and Young Gil, c/o AFL House in your capital city... as per usual.

* Crows are always flag favoutites... in Adelaide.

Gorillas in our midst?

There was plenty of disenfranchised Melbourne supporters over the weekend after another 100+ point loss this week (on top of an earlier one in round 2). This season has lurched from one disaster to another from since before the season even began.

 (For a deeper look inside the life of a Melbourne fan, please read "Every Day Is Like Sunday", by @Demonblog ... tragedy, comedy, descriptions of football life on the edge) 

Of the tweets about the Sydney v Melbourne game that came through our tweet-stream, these below were  interesting, via 'Mr. FootyMaths', Tony Tea:

@AfterGrogBlog: Excluding GWS & GC (just) this Melbourne side is the worst AFL side since Fitzroy in 1996. #aflswansdees

and

@AfterGrogBlog: 1996 Fitzroy won 1 game - Freo in its second year. 2012 Melbourne will win 1 game - GC in its second year. #Spoon

So with those comments in mind, lets run a few numbers on 1996 Fitzroy and 2012 Melbourne.
      Note: Language warning... it will get a tad fruity later

To start, lets look at the final 2 seasons from Fitzroy (full data at the foot of the post) and compare that to the last 44 games from Melbourne (in the table at left) and then also zoom in and focus on the last 22 games as well (table at right). 

Looking at the both sets of game data, you our assessment is that Melbourne are not headed into the same abyss as Fitzroy.

What is interesting though (and worrying for Dees fans) is that the last 22 games data has some similarities and differences to the Roy-boys last season.

Differences: Melbourne have clearly won more games, scored more and conceded less. According to our rankings as well, they have a higher base, and have maintained that... no basket case for the red and blue as yet!

Similarities: Starting with our ranking points, while Melbourne are ranked higher, the drop off in points is very close to the same drop off that Fitzroy went through in 1996 (FL: -148, MD:-131). Melbourne are also on an ongoing 9 game losing streak, and may equal or surpass Fitzroy's last 14 losses of 1996.

And Also: Further, examining 'blow-out' margins provides insight into Melbourne's playing stocks, and perhaps mental toughness. All of the truly large blowouts (+100 and +120 point results) have come in the last 22 games.

Also the last 22 games have also had three quarters of the +60 and +80 point blow-outs results for the past 44 games. The concentration of these poor performances must have the coaches and fans worried.


Looking at the ranking points system we apply here at the FootyMaths Institute to both teams for the last 44 games, we can chart performance as here (with annotations).

This chart also highlights that when Melbourne are working well, they can be a competitive unit... but the drop off in rank since the last weeks of the Bailey era is alarming.

But, again, our position is that Melbourne are not a 2012 version of Fitzroy.


Final Points
1- Fitzroy fans, do not despair... we will look back into the archives and one day note some happier days in the lives of the Brunswick Street faithful... keep watching this space!

2- After much of the weeks news has revolved around some sort of confected 'Melbourne Crisis' (you know, the media beast needs to be fed), I am loath to add more fuel to the fire. This post was inspired on match day by the a fore-mentioned tweet, and is intended purely for comparative purposes.

And while writing this, I stumbled across another tweet from Mr FootyMaths (plus replies) that I thought best sums up the collective Demons frustrations.

So please consider this post as just one more assessment that adds "precisely fuck all to the debate".

Reference Material:
Fitzroy games from 1995-1996

Click To Enlarge

Melbourne games from 2010- round 8 2012

Click To Enlarge

Tweets from Tony Tea

Round 8: A Double and Triple

Also known as: ...two blockbusters and three blowouts, please.

A couple of big games over the weekend, with Grand Final Rematch (... not replay!) and the Dreamtime game were overshadowed by staggering losses. Both in the blow-outs suffered by Melbourne and the GWS, as well as the failure by Carlton to turn up, and in the wilting of North Melbourne.

Our return was another 6 from 9, keeping us set at 71% correct.

Eighth round results:

Three more games in the Blow-out Bin this week, with wins to Sydney (into the +100pt bracket), Brisbane (into the +90pts bracket) and Adelaide (into the +60pts bracket).

If you go to that page you can see all the games listed, and the 2011 benchmark.
As of round 8 (35% of the season), there have been a total of 17 games with a margin of +60pts (36% compared to 2011).
The lower blow-out scores are slightly higher than 2011, and the higher brackets are behind. Plenty of season to come.



Strongest Gains:
Adelaide winning strongly against a higher ranked Carlton booted them a big 19pts to be the best of the week.

As we mentioned earlier, the Essendon -v-Richmond Dreamtime game did result in one team dropping points (Richmond), and the other continuing their great run  this season... Essendon's win gave them another 14pt boost, and brings them close to the top 8.

The only other notable gain was to Sydney, with 9pts added after belting Melbourne.

Biggest Drop:
Carlton's early season stumble continues at-pace,with a loss of 14pts at the hands of the Crows.

Geelong are still not playing to expectations, and drop another 11pts.

Melbourne and GWS, after both copping big losses, also drop 13pts and 12pts respectively.


Table Changes:
Adelaide climb to 9th on the back of the 19pt boost from defeating Carlton. There are now 5 teams in a 66pt grouping from 8th to 12th.

We could have the return of Collingwood as the best ranked team soon. Now there is only 4pts between them and the Cats.

Carlton, St, Kilda and West Coast are also separated by 39pts in the group of 4th to 6th place.

Also Port Adelaide and Melbourne are 40pts apart at the lower end of the table.

Round 8: A Big Week?

The AFL, driven by His Andrew-ness, decided many a moon ago that the early rounds of the season be locked away for special events. Yet there is one key special event that is waited-on with baited breath by the footballing public.
So finally, here it is... the most anticipated game of the season!
        Port Adelaide v North Melbourne

.....Errmmm, no.
The real game of the year to date is here in Round 8... the game that should have been played in Round 1...
or even on Anzac Day...

Yes, the Grand Final Re-match -     Collingwood -v- Geelong.

Both teams have had an up and down season so far, possibly more down than up though. Using the FootyMaths ranking points system, they are still the top two teams in the competition, but are playing below their potential this season, by about 13%.

And for you blog readers playing along at home... a bonus 5 points to any of you who can let us know why we wait until round 8 for the Grand Final rematch.
[Answers in an envelope addressed to Vlad, AA and Young Gil, c/o AFL HQ in your capital city, please.]


Round 8 also gives us another special event, the very noble exercise of the 'Dreamtime at the G', where both great improvers (as we had shown just this week) for 2012 will finally go head to head.

So to the Round 8 predictions...
The close one of the round tipped by the FootyMaths Supercomputer is...

A 2 point margin to the reigning premiers in the Grand Final rematch

And while we tip the premiers by 2pts, the @AFLStatsGuys remind us (see tweet at right).
So if since 2006, we have premiers winning in '07 and '08 (i.e. back-to-back), then not winning until '11... then following the back-to-back pattern, our tip is correct!
(and that logic would stretch FootyMaths principles to such a distant realm that our Supercomputer would have to check itself into rehab!). 


The Dreamtime game and the other clash of the top 8 teams, West Coast v St.Kilda are also tipped as close, with expected margins of 6pts and 7pts respectively.

Interesting also that the calculations spit out a 47pt win for the Lions v GWS, but let's take that with a grain of salt too.


To the tips...

There are 3 big losses calculated for this week, but they may not end up in the Blow-Out Bin...
 - Hawthorn to defeat Fremantle by 43pts,
 - The Bulldogs to defeat the Gold Coast by 41pts, and
 - Brisbane to defeat the GWS by 47pts.

Notes: Hot Cats'n'Pies

No... not 'Hot Cats in Pies'. That's just wrong.

With the Grand Final Replay Geelong v Collingwood coming this week, its a good opportunity to review the teams... but not as a preview to the clash, but a comparison of the teams past.

This was inspired by a new reader and twitter follower John (@Magpies59Fan), who was interested in our rankings points determinations and how Collingwood had achieved the highest ranking on record (by the FootyMaths Institute system).

He considered the great Geelong run of 2007-08 and thought they would be better than the Collingwood team of 2010-11.

He also further detailed his thinking as per the below long form tweets, and using calculations around average winning margins, he determined that Geelong should have achieved a higher level of ranking points than Collingwood.

John's logic is as here:   

Cats between 2007-09 lost 2 games in 44, C'wood from 2010-11 lost 2 games in 37 with 2 draws. Surely Geelong would have a higher ranking over that period than C'wood. Thinking about it more thou, what was Geelong ave winning margin vs expected in than period (44 games) compared to C'wood ave winning margin vs expected in the 37 games. Maybe that is why C'wood have ended up with a slightly higher ranking after R23 2011.

and

C'wood R11 2010-->> R23 2011 Ave winning mar 47.11pts 1743pts from 37 games. Geelong R6 2007-->> PF 2008 Ave winning mar 48.32pts 2126pts from 44 games. While it very close to me that means Geelong should have achieved a higher ranking (just) than C'wood did.

Looking at our rankings system, it is worth noting that they don't use winning margins only as a determinant. The calculations project a winning margin (as we post each round), and the actual winning margin is used in tandem with the projection. the ranking is then adjusted on outcome vs projection... such as
 - if an actual winning margin is greater than projected:
     ranking points are added.
 - if an actual winning margin is less than projected:
     ranking points are deducted.
(see also footnote)
Therefore, it is not only winning margins that are the be all and end all under our mechanism.


Collingwood 2010-11 and Geelong 2007-08
But back to the two teams in question, Geelong 2007-08 and Collingwood 2010-11.
We have laid out the teams matches near the foot of the blog (for those interesed in studying the timeline and points changes), but to summarise...

 - Geelong started 2007 at 1098pts,
   peaked at 1449pts after the 2008 Qualifying Final win vs St.Kilda
   a net gain of 351pts

 - Collingwood started 2010 at 1175pts,
   peaked at 1454pts after the Round 24 win vs Fremantle
   a net gain of 289pts


Graphically represented, both Collingwood and Geelong's ranking points over the selected years is as below.

So with only 5 rankings points between the peak ranks of these two teams, it would be hard to call one more superior than the other. But that said, the Geelong run in 2007 of 15 consecutive weeks gaining rankings points might just tip the balance their way.

That's 15 wins either against the predicted tip, or where they won over the calculated margin for 15 consecutive gains of ranking points (during the period 6 May 2007 to 19 Aug 2007). Average winning margin: 50.1 points. Which you could pretty much call a domination over opposition by Geelong.


The Hard Data
Full list of match games, and rankings point adjustments here.

Footnote
The system also works for teams losses as well...
 - if a losing margin greater than predicted
     ranking points are deducted.
 - If a losing margin less than predicted:
     ranking points are added.