Tuesday, 3 May 2016

6. TWO CABS

So that's two cabs off the rank in a row. Two weeks of poor tipping, as the hand remains on the handle of the computer. No manual adjustments even though the rest of the footy world knows:
 - Essendon are an un-tippable basket case of their own making.
 - Richmond are crap.
 - Freo are crapper.

PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
North Melbourneby3ptsNorth Melbourneby16ptsNorth Melbourne+6W Bulldogs/FFC-6
Melbourneby5ptsSt Kildaby39ptsMelbourne-17St Kilda+18
Adelaideby38ptsAdelaideby33ptsAdelaide-2Fremantle+1
Hawthornby24ptsGWSby75ptsGWS+49Hawthorn-38
Richmondby14ptsPort Adelaideby35ptsRichmond-41Port Adelaide+17
Geelongby41ptsGeelongby120ptsGeelong+36Gold Coast-24
Sydney/SMFCby43ptsSydney/SMFCby3ptsBrisbane Lions+15Sydney/SMFC-12
Essendonby2ptsCarltonby15ptsCarlton+9Essendon-21
West Coastby48ptsWest Coastby62ptsWest Coast+5Collingwood-13

Harder to pick was the win by GWS, who appear in sparkling form, particularly at home. That said the Form Indicator had this as GWS +40 and Hawthorn as -31. 
Should have seen it coming.

Also as a missed tip was Melbourne losing to St Kilda. But with a 5 point margin tipped, it was really a coin toss of a game.


Rankings change as below.
RANKINGSPre:R 7
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Hawthorn1411-37
2West Coast14045
3Sydney/SMFC1324-12
4Adelaide1312-1
5North Melbourne12607
6Geelong123836+1
7W Bulldogs/FFC1224-5-1
8Port Adelaide115918+1
9GWS113949+1
10Richmond1119-40-2
11Fremantle10631
12Collingwood1028-12
13Melbourne904-16
14St Kilda89118+1
15Gold Coast889-24-1
16Carlton82910+1
17Brisbane Lions81115+1
18Essendon810-21-2
Well now. West Coast are within a Trent Cotchin short dink of a kick (to a teammate under the hammer) from topping the table.
Which comes at an interesting time given 'The Armchair Expert' thinks they are not the best outfit out there.

Richmond join Fremantle outside the best 8, and both head for 'bog standard' team ratings.
And it has taken all of 6 weeks, but finally and by the barest of margins, Essendon have sunk to the bottom, where pundits have had them all year but the system needed to adjust for of itself.

Thursday, 28 April 2016

6. CLOSE, CLOSE, CLOSE

Just like the Gillette 3000, this round promises to bring some very close shaves in some key games.

Friday night has the two top teams head to head in what looks like inspired AFL scheduling (but is perhaps more dumb luck), and North just getting the nod. No HGA advantage has been applied in this game, and you could make an argument that it should be applied to the Dogs...

HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
RND 6
North Melbourne-1v35W Bulldogs/FFCDockNorth Melbourneby3pts
Melbourne36v11St KildaMCGMelbourneby5pts
Adelaide45v-78FremantleAdelAdelaideby38pts
GWS40v-31HawthornShowHawthornby24pts
Richmond-49v-41Port AdelaideMCGRichmondby14pts
Geelong24v37Gold CoastKardGeelongby41pts
Brisbane Lions7v27Sydney/SMFCGabbSydney/SMFCby43pts
Carlton1v-31EssendonMCGEssendonby2pts
West Coast-11v-34CollingwoodSubiWest Coastby48pts

Can the Demons get three in a row? The numbers give them a narrow win over the Saints, who themselves are no slouches.

Again, the HGA is boosting Richmond. But where is Port Adelaide this year. The first 15 minutes will tell in this one.

And the second tip for Essendon, with another narrow win predicted over Carlton. In tipping the Dons, the FMI system is 1 and 0.

Think before tipping, and as always - no wagering!