27. PENULTIMATE

Yes, the one before the last.

The Wash-Up.

Half right and half wrong.
And 20's all round.

PREDICTION

RESULT

RANKING PT CHANGES

Rich

by

15

pts

62

Coll

by

39

pts

☒

Rich

-21

Coll

21

West

by

3

pts

53

West

by

66

pts

☑

West

20

Melb

-20

Adjusted rankings for the finals period
Even after Melbourne's loss, they still hold 2nd for the year.

AFTER					SF		pts	table
1	Richmond				1365		-16	0
2	Melbourne				1326		22	1
3	Geelong				1302		-11	-1
4	West Coast				1280		20	0
5	Collingwood				1251		20	1
6	GWS				1240		27	1
7	Sydney/SMFC				1210		-25	-2
8	Essendon				1202			1
9	Hawthorn				1191		-12	-1

And so basically we have a grand final between 4th and 5th.
Excitement plus has been the hallmark of 2018.

The Week Ahead.

Its the Grand Final and both teams have shown improvement over the year. And in the above ranking table, in an even year it all came down to September.

And the chart above suggest neither team has been exceptional in September, other than the last week.

Awesome.

So the tip for the Final is:

TIP FOR FINALS

- 2018 GRAND FINAL

HOME AWAY

VENUE

PREDICTION

West Coast

v

Collingwood

MCG

West

by

3

pts

52

Eagles by 3, which is a coin toss in reality.

Simulations

The season leads to a coin toss finish. Which is nice. Basically 50/50 here as above.

SEPTEMBER RUNS
TEAM		EF / QF's	SEMI's	PRELIM's	G FINAL	PREMIER
1	Richmond	100		100.0
2	West Coast	100		100.0	100.0	45.9
3	Collingwood	100	100.0	100.0	100.0	54.1
4	Hawthorn	100	100.0
5	Melbourne	100	100.0	100.0
6	Sydney/SMFC	100
7	GWS	100	100.0
8	Geelong	100

Good luck to all involved.

26. MELBMENTUM

So the League Committee recommends  raft of proposals to the Commission. The Commission now has to choose to satisfy the broadcasters, or be the 'custodians of the game' they profess to be.
October will be the month of reckoning.

The Wash Up

Two from two and again another tip very close to the mark - basically Collingwood is playing 'as expected'. A sub 20 MAE also kicks along the season MAE to 27.3.

PREDICTION

RESULT

RANKING PT CHANGES

Melb

by

13

pts

40

Melb

by

33

pts

☑

Hawt

-7

Melb

21

Coll

by

12

pts

59

Coll

by

10

pts

☑

Coll

-1

GWS

8

Melbourne's impressive form continues... and has implications, as you will see below.

The rankings are further adjusted, and as mentioned, Melbourne have gained 43 points in the two finals games and are now ranked as close to equivalent to Richmond since round 15 (Sydney, -30).

AFTER					SF		pts	table
1	Richmond				1385		5	0
2	Melbourne				1346		43	1
3	Geelong				1302		-11	-1
4	West Coast				1260		0	0
5	GWS				1240		27	2
6	Collingwood				1231		-1	0
7	Sydney/SMFC				1210		-25	-2
8	Essendon				1202			1
9	Hawthorn				1191		-12	-1

The Week Ahead

Preliminary Finals week next week, withe the best four teams playing. Although by the FMI rankings its 1st vs 6th and 4th vs 2nd.
The tips.

HOME AWAY

VENUE

PREDICTION

Richmond

v

Collingwood

MCG

Rich

by

15

pts

62

West Coast

v

Melbourne

Pert

West

by

3

pts

53

The interesting tip above is that West Coast vs Melbourne is now effectively a coin toss. The Eagles HGA all but eaten up by the Demons

And as impressive as that is for Melbourne to now go to Perth with a 50/50 chance, looking at simulating that remainder of the finals shows the Dees form is their kicker.

The September Ahead

Using the standard FMI match simulations, the potential grand finalists are calculated to be as the table below.

With the Perth Prelim a 50/50 game on rankings, the influence of form drives the Demons higher in simulations over the iterations. So the most likely finals matchup is Tigers vs Demons.

GRAND FINAL MATCH-UPS
TEAM		MEL	WCE
1	Richmond	51.9	24.3
3	Collingwood	16.2	7.6

Listing that below, and extending the predictions to the Grand Final itself, means we have a calculated flag favourite as per the table below. The influence of form.

SEPTEMBER RUNS
TEAM		EF / QF's	SEMI's	PRELIM's	G FINAL	PREMIER
1	Richmond	100		100.0	76.2	33.8
2	West Coast	100		100.0	31.9	10.1
3	Collingwood	100	100.0	100.0	23.8	5.8
4	Hawthorn	100	100.0
5	Melbourne	100	100.0	100.0	68.1	50.3
6	Sydney/SMFC	100
7	GWS	100	100.0
8	Geelong	100

"...Should Auld Acquaintance be forgot, Keep your eye on the red and tae blue"

(R Burns, rugged Half Forward for Ayrshire, Scotland).

And it seems the FMI model foresaw this weeks ago.

I've broken my footy ELO model.

Just ran Finals sims. Most likely to win GF - Melbourne 38%#ShuttingDown
BYE!

— 𝙁𝙈𝙄 (@The_FMI) August 5, 2018