Friday, 22 May 2015

08. AND LATE

The GWS juggernaut rolls on as they continue to elevate their season and the rankings reflect that.
A season long (to date!) increase of 28% has them as 2015's clearly most improved team.

Also up in ratings of enough significance are West Coast (+11%).

GWS are yet to get a win nomination from the tipping calculations, but a close margin is expected when they meet Adelaide. With a near parity rating of 981 points, it is their best position since entering the competition.

The form indicator also suggests the Adelaide tip is a potential error, with GWS bringing red hot form (+68) into the game. The Crows on the other hand are off the boil ans sit at -23.

This weeks full expectations.
HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
RND 8
Geelong-19v-63CarltonDockGeelongby21pts
St Kilda13v46West CoastDockWest Coastby45pts
GWS68v-23AdelaideShowAdelaideby14pts
Gold Coast-21v22CollingwoodCarrCollingwoodby6pts
Hawthorn8v-22Sydney/SMFCMCGHawthornby24pts
Fremantle16v-1North MelbourneSubiFremantleby26pts
Essendon-7v-25Brisbane LionsDockEssendonby45pts
Melbourne5v29W Bulldogs/FFCMCGW Bulldogs/FFCby19pts
Port Adelaide-8v-18RichmondAdelPort Adelaideby31pts


Tuesday, 19 May 2015

07. FITTING FINISH

Once again Season 2015 rounds out with yet another surprise.

There will be no one in any regulation tipping comps that would have had Brisbane winning.
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
North Melbourneby7ptsNorth Melbourneby11ptsEssendon-5North Melbourne+1
Adelaideby63ptsAdelaideby46ptsAdelaide-8St Kilda+15
Hawthornby64ptsHawthornby105ptsHawthorn+14Melbourne-16
Carltonby17ptsGWSby78ptsCarlton-46GWS+45
Sydney/SMFCby32ptsSydney/SMFCby43ptsSydney/SMFC+3Geelong-6
West Coastby49ptsWest Coastby92ptsWest Coast+31Gold Coast-25
Fremantleby25ptsFremantleby13ptsW Bulldogs/FFC+12Fremantle-4
Richmondby6ptsRichmondby5ptsRichmond-10Collingwood+3
Port Adelaideby42ptsBrisbane Lionsby37ptsBrisbane Lions+23Port Adelaide-24

As expected in the round preview, tipping Carlton was a waste of a tip.
But to say GWS were simply too good doesn't allow for anyone to remember just how bad Carlton were. How bad...? Well then:
"The Blues were taken apart by the up-and-coming Giants, conceding eight goals in the third quarter. But for inaccuracy, the Giants could have won by more than 100 points, their dominance reflected in 40 scoring shots to 12, GWS racking up an astonishing 80 inside-50s to 32 for Carlton."
Tipping 4 points of North, and 1 off the Richmond margins was welcome, as was getting 7 from 9. Somewhat back to form, but still under quoting GWS and the Bulldogs is expected continue to deliver weekly pain.

Interesting table changes here this week - with West Coast moving up to 4th. Not too many pundits had the Eagles in the better half of the draw at the start of the year, but our estimations did, determining a 98% chance of finishing top 8. It is too early to fully call that result done and dusted, but it certainly is an encouraging start.
RANKINGSPre:R 8
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Hawthorn146914-
2Sydney/SMFC13554-
3Fremantle1344-3-
4West Coast130832+1
5Port Adelaide1294-23-1
6Adelaide1231-7-
7North Melbourne12082-
8Geelong1145-6-
9Essendon1134-5-
10Richmond1105-10-
11Collingwood10634-
12W Bulldogs/FFC99213+1
13GWS98145+1
14Carlton939-45-2
15Gold Coast885-24-
16Brisbane Lions80623+1
17Melbourne803-15-1
18St Kilda74515-

As can be expected, Carlton continue to dip and now sit in 14th with GWS ams the Bullies both moving ahead. They will need to do well against Geelong and beyond to arrest the slide (part of the great 'oh you dont say!' in depth analysis you have come to loath here at the FMI).