Tuesday, 23 August 2016

22. ALIGNMENT OF SORTS

As the home and away season winds down, the 5 predictive models that have been tracked on the SWARMS tab are now in effective alignment.
Not too many variables does that to predictive data.
CURRENT AS OF CONCLUSION OF ROUND 22Grey = not updated to current round
F M I MATTER OF STATSGRAFT RATINGSFOOTYFORECASTERSQUIGGLE
1Sydney/SMFC17.01Sydney/SMFC16.91Sydney/SMFC16.91Sydney/SMFC171Sydney/SMFC17
2Adelaide17.02Adelaide16.92Adelaide16.82Adelaide172Adelaide17
3Geelong16.93Geelong16.83Geelong16.73Geelong173Geelong17
4Hawthorn16.94Hawthorn16.64Hawthorn16.74Hawthorn174Hawthorn17
5W Bulldogs/FFC16.05W Bulldogs/FFC15.85W Bulldogs/FFC15.85GWS165GWS16
6GWS15.96GWS15.56GWS15.66W Bulldogs/FFC166W Bulldogs/FFC16
7West Coast15.07West Coast15.17West Coast15.27West Coast157West Coast15
8N Melbourne12.18N Melbourne12.58N Melbourne12.48N Melbourne128N Melbourne12
9St Kilda12.09St Kilda11.99St Kilda11.99St Kilda129St Kilda12
10Melbourne10.110Melbourne10.210Melbourne10.310Port Adelaide1010Port Adelaide10
11Port Adelaide10.011Port Adelaide9.611Port Adelaide9.711Melbourne1011Melbourne10
12Collingwood9.112Collingwood9.412Collingwood9.312Collingwood912Collingwood9
13Richmond8.013Richmond8.113Richmond8.113Richmond813Richmond8
14Carlton8.014Carlton7.614Carlton7.814Carlton814Carlton8
15Gold Coast6.015Gold Coast6.415Gold Coast6.315Gold Coast615Gold Coast6
16Fremantle3.016Fremantle3.216Fremantle3.216Fremantle316Fremantle3
17Brisbane Lions3.017Brisbane Lions3.017Brisbane Lions3.117Brisbane Lions317Brisbane Lions3
18Essendon2.018Essendon2.418Essendon2.218Essendon218Essendon2


But back to the tips you know and deride.
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
West Coastby10ptsWest Coastby25ptsWest Coast+5Hawthorn-9
Sydney/SMFCby19ptsSydney/SMFCby9ptsNorth Melbourne+2Sydney/SMFC-3
Richmondby1ptsSt Kildaby9ptsRichmond-7St Kilda+8
GWSby53ptsGWSby92ptsGWS+16Fremantle-32
Collingwoodby31ptsCollingwoodby71ptsCollingwood+18Gold Coast-15
Adelaideby25ptsAdelaideby15ptsPort Adelaide+2Adelaide-3
Melbourneby17ptsCarltonby20ptsCarlton+13Melbourne-14
Geelongby52ptsGeelongby60ptsBrisbane Lions-13Geelong+3
W Bulldogs/FFCby55ptsW Bulldogs/FFCby40ptsEssendon+4W Bulldogs/FFC-8

Another middle of the road 7 from the available 9. Accurate on the margins though, with 4 games close by under 2 goals, and another 2 by around 3 goals.

Season expectations are basically right on the money.


(and yes the green line is  meant to be under the zero line, with the red and blue aiming to be above ground zero)


So the tables stand as:
RANKINGSPre:R 23
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Adelaide1417-3
2Sydney/SMFC1393-3
3Hawthorn1344-8
4GWS133917+1
5West Coast13296-1
6Geelong12903
7North Melbourne12133+1
8W Bulldogs/FFC1205-7-1
9Port Adelaide11813
10Collingwood107819+1
11Melbourne1046-13-1
12St Kilda10089+1
13Richmond996-6-1
14Carlton90313+1
15Fremantle888-32-1
16Gold Coast859-15
17Essendon6764
18Brisbane Lions642-13