Friday, 28 August 2015

22. A JOURNEY SHARED

The Footy Almanac is a great resource for people to write about sports they love and cherish, and more. Its provides fans an outlet to have published a different view of games, clubs, culture and life. It is significantly more accessible and open than any of the mainstream press, and as an open platform it attracts contributions on so many levels.

A recent article published is most interesting, charting a very personal journey that the author elected to go public with, and that was ultimately tackled and confronted head on through sport. It was about Cricket more than Footy, but you can easily imagine your own scenarios and apply any mutually admired sport and sportsperson to same.

On Clarke, Sport and Family.
"Tonight Clarke will walk out onto the field with the Australian Test team for the final time. His legacy as a cricketer, a captain and a statesman is a matter for debate. For me, though, Clarke’s place in history is rather more personal. For me he symbolises a moment when I felt I couldn’t communicate, so I talked about sport."

What follows are personal struggles to understand a persona problem, and also how to begin the road to recovery. Sometimes life offers up others in your life a challenge that at first seems confronting and difficult. They can be hard to sort, and often cant be tackled alone. Find your way to navigate yourself and your loved ones through them. Sometimes, like in Josh's case, sport can be the conduit.


Have a read, and have a think about those around you and the struggles they may face. Family and Friends, big troubles and small problems. A little help and thoughtfulness goes a long way.
Its Mental Health Week soon, and services like BeyondBlue are also good references too.

Thanks for sharing Josh.





Not so many close games expected here, with Geelong / Collingwood two other games only predicted to be under 2 goal margins
The Bulldogs and Essendon but remain your form leaders, at either end of the scale.
HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
RND 22
Geelong5v-37CollingwoodMCGGeelongby7pts
GWS-3v-30CarltonShowGWSby29pts
Hawthorn11v-13Brisbane LionsYorkHawthornby88pts
North Melbourne24v63W Bulldogs/FFCDockNorth Melbourneby11pts
Essendon-59v26RichmondMCGRichmondby37pts
Gold Coast1v-1Port AdelaideCarrPort Adelaideby22pts
Adelaide24v10West CoastAdelWest Coastby12pts
St Kilda14v-19Sydney/SMFCDockSydney/SMFCby26pts
Fremantle-8v-10MelbourneSubiFremantleby53pts

And hunting upsets,... Adelaide at home could get up over the Eagles as the Crows are also in good form, That said, so to the Eagles, so... may not happen.
The Bulldogs and North looks the hardest tip to be confident about.

Tuesday, 25 August 2015

21. RECOVERY

A bad week again for the AFL with another four blow-outs of 60+ points. A blog post here on Thursday highlighted the situation where the previous record for blow out games in 2013 was under threat this year and certain to be over taken.

And this week, with 4 more, the tally clicks over to 41 games with margins of 60 or more points to equal the 2013 record.
The imbalance in footy continues to grow.


These blow-outs also make it hard to tip and keep your MAE in check. A weekly MAE of 40.1 will probably be the end to meeting the season goal of 30.0 or less.
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Hawthornby50ptsPort Adelaideby22ptsHawthorn-22Port Adelaide+21
Richmondby9ptsRichmondby91ptsCollingwood-29Richmond+31
Sydney/SMFCby23ptsSydney/SMFCby89ptsGWS-22Sydney/SMFC+19
Gold Coastby11ptsGold Coastby2ptsGold Coast-6Essendon+2
Geelongby30ptsDrawSt Kilda+12Geelong-9
Adelaideby52ptsAdelaideby87ptsAdelaide+25Brisbane Lions-13
North Melbourneby12ptsNorth Melbourneby11ptsNorth Melbourne-1Fremantle0
Melbourneby5ptsCarltonby23ptsCarlton+9Melbourne-16
West Coastby39ptsWest Coastby77ptsWest Coast+14W Bulldogs/FFC-14

Tipping wise, it was a return of 7, under the usual tipping competition rules of calling a draw a 'correct tip'. It was also a surprising 71 points under the Monash system which lifts these calculated tips into 10th place.

Now tenth may not seem a great outcome, but this is certainly better than 45th of round 5. And the current score of 1520 is tracking around the goal set at season start.


In the table, three pairs of teams swap places.
Sydney return to 3rd with a win and Fremantle performing almost perfectly as expected.
RANKINGSPre:R 22
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Hawthorn1517-22-
2West Coast143215-
3Sydney/SMFC126419+1
4Fremantle12490-1
5North Melbourne12410-
6Richmond123632-
7Adelaide119525-
8Port Adelaide118522+1
9Geelong1160-9-1
10W Bulldogs/FFC1139-14-
11Collingwood1095-29-
12GWS994-22-
13St Kilda88512+1
14Essendon8753-1
15Gold Coast855-6-
16Melbourne841-15-
17Carlton82510-
18Brisbane Lions765-13-

Port Adelaide sit in 8th after upsetting the Hawks, and Geelong should have done better than drawing with St Kilda. Saints though to their credit played well and deserve their rise to 13th.