Thursday, 20 April 2017

5. THINKING SHORT TERM

Over on the SWARMS page, the FMI predictor looks weekly at where each team is now, how they are performing, and what opponents each team has for the remainder of the year.
Then using that data, match simulations are run, and expectations on ladder finish and season wins are predicted for the year.

Of course, the key element of those tables are that it is looking well into the future, and with currently 18 games to play, the distribution of outcomes his large.

Looking instead at the shorter term view, the below table looks at predicting where your team will finish after round 9. That's only the next 5 games being considered.

The below shows expectations that Adelaide will win their next 5 games. And with those games scheduled as Suns, Tigers, Roos, Demons and Lions, its a reasonable call, with the Crows on fire early doors.

Collingwood also look solid to win three of the next 5 (vs. Dons, Cats, Blues, Giants and Hawks)... possibly every second week.
The Hawks, Roos and Swans all should get off the mark in the next 5 rounds with about 2 or 3 wins each... and you would hope so too.

Hawks - vs Eagles, Saints, Demons, Lions, Pies.
Swans - vs Giants, Blues, Lions, Roos, Saints
Roos - vs Dockers, Suns, Crows, Swans, Demons



Position after the next 5 rounds
% EXPECTED WINS0123456789
1Adelaide>199
2Geelong>32968
3GWS>63261
4Richmond>1557271
5West Coast>2175229
6Port Adelaide>4060
7W Bulldogs/FFC>17452981
8Melbourne32245265
9Collingwood>5868
10Fremantle1206712
11St Kilda14243131
12Sydney/SMFC>15383810
13North Melbourne>3234727
14Essendon73242
15Hawthorn>21462571
16Gold Coast991
17Carlton91900
18Brisbane Lions100
> or bold = current number of wins


Something for tipsters and predictors alike to contemplate.

And once the remainder of the tables are compiled they will be published on a new page.


The Wash-up:

Another 6 correct round as you guessed it Melbourne Melbourne-d a winnable one at home, and the 'big clubs' Carlton and Collingwood but coughed up losses that will see them laying in front of 25,000 for the rest of the year.
Winnable games. Dropped.

PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
West Coastby9pts57West Coastby26West Coast+6Sydney/SMFC-24
W Bulldogs/FFCby17pts37W Bulldogs/FFCby3North Melbourne+4W Bulldogs/FFC-5
Melbourneby29pts72Fremantleby2Melbourne-13Fremantle+11
GWSby15pts62GWSby31GWS+13Port Adelaide-7
Carltonby13pts60Gold Coastby26Carlton-22Gold Coast+19
Adelaideby79pts94Adelaideby65Adelaide-5Essendon+18
Collingwoodby11pts58St Kildaby14Collingwood-10St Kilda+9
Richmondby26pts30Richmondby52Brisbane Lions-10Richmond+21
Geelongby13pts40Geelongby86Hawthorn-53Geelong+24


With Geelong inflicting pain on Hawthorn, they score a nice rise up the rankings table to third. Displaced are Sydney and West Coast.
Hawthorn subsequently also drop a position, swapping with the unspectacular North Melbourne.

Richmond and Melbourne, and Gold Coast and Carlton all change spots.


RANKINGSPre:R 5
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Adelaide1397-4
2GWS137413
3Geelong130425+2
4Sydney/SMFC1291-24-1
5West Coast12867-1
6W Bulldogs/FFC1260-4
7Port Adelaide1215-6
8North Melbourne11144+1
9Hawthorn1107-52-1
10Collingwood1079-9
11Richmond101321+1
12Melbourne1001-12-1
13St Kilda100010
14Fremantle87312
15Gold Coast86119+1
16Carlton823-21-1
17Essendon79018
18Brisbane Lions615-10


Also good to see Essendon drawing themselves back up the table, slowly but surely.
The test this weekend is the Anzac Day game against Collingwood, both needing a win.


The Round Ahead:

Friday, Saturday. Footy days.
Sunday, Monday, Footy days.
Anzac Day! What a day...

ahem. Enough with the TV themes.

HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
R 5
Port Adelaide34v-26CarltonAdelPort Adelaideby54pts86
W Bulldogs/FFC14v1Brisbane LionsDockW Bulldogs/FFCby81pts95
Gold Coast2v13AdelaideCarrAdelaideby44pts19
Sydney/SMFC-47v11GWSSCGGWSby9pts43
Fremantle-5v-19North MelbourneSubiNorth Melbourneby13pts40
St Kilda-1v15GeelongDockGeelongby32pts26
Hawthorn-83v-11West CoastMCGWest Coastby7pts45
Richmond34v2MelbourneMCGRichmondby2pts51
Essendon41v4CollingwoodMCGCollingwoodby31pts27


Oh look, not only tips but also the return of the Form Indicator.

A slightly modified scale this season on the back of changes to the tip boldness coefficient. Nonetheless, it still highlights your Hawthorn slide nicely.
As well as Essendon driving well now, with Richmond and Port Adelaide.

Looking for outsiders...?
Essendon for one, with a big form differential to Collingwood.
And a very minor case for Fremantle too... shorter term form line of both splits them further.

Good tipping to you all.