08- Ohhh, Join up with Me...

Looks like we tripped up a touch in suggesting Round 8 was the best chance to score 9 correct tips... and the Whopper Burgers that footytips.com.au would lay on, if you tip with that webpage.

Bombers bomb out, Hungry Jacks breathe a huge sigh of relief #noburgerweekend
— FootyMaths Institute (@AFLFootyMaths) May 18, 2013

The Lions, in a classic jumper from their past, turned on the heat against the Bombers and won, against most tipsters expectations.

Courtesy Brisbane Lions website

They ran out with the same type of play that won them a famous treble of premierships in the early part of this century, that put that Lions team into the elite in the VFL/AFL history (read the linked article from Rohan Connolly on his assessments of the best of the best).

If the social media feedback from the Saturday afternoon game is anything to go by, the old Lions jumper will be back in 2014... much loved by most of the football world.

And if that win didn't trip-up your tipping, the Collingwood's win over Geelong by a goal, and the 'historic'* draw* between Sydney and Fremantle would have too.

* If a draw can be 'historic'... though it was the first ever draw for Fremantle.
* We don't count draws as a winning tip. Footytips.com.au does, Monash Uni doesn't. 


THE RESULTS:
The first draw for the season means we miss a tip, under our counting rules. This sets us at 52 from 72 (correct rate of 72.2%). Under Footytips.com.au rules its 53 from 72 (73.6%).

The draw cost Sydney not only a certain 4 points in the AFL table, but also a loss of 12 rankings points under our system.

This allowed Geelong, who also lost, to leapfrog them into 2nd position on our table. This again is another of those anomalies where you can lose and climb the rankings*. The Sydney penalty for not winning by about 23 points was far greater than the penalty applied to Geelong, who were expected to win a close game.

A raft of other changes this week too, the most in fact this year.
Collingwood and Fremantle both rise up over West Coast after Saturday nights performances. We expected West Coast to win by a lot more than a kick after the siren.
It is also worth noting that our rankings are not influenced by umpiring, so that whole Shuey/Selwood debate is not welcome here.
And if anybody comments on the Selwood family propensity to drop the knees to earn a free kick, have a look at that Krakouer goal in the last quarter... clearly collapsed in the tackle.

Happens. Every. Game.
Get over it.

Adelaide's big win over St Kilda sees the Crows up and the Saints down a spot (each of two - Thanks Peter Landy*)

Also down on the table, and down on rankings after not meeting expectations are Richmond and Carlton, while North Melbourne jump 2 spots after that near win / noble defeat... if such a thing exists.

Positions 4 to 11 only separated by 104 points... more changes next week, for sure.


* For more information on rankings, read "Comparison of AFL Power Rankings Systems" by Troy Wheatley, who delves a deeper on rankings theory. Our blog last week was Rankings 101. This is Advanced Rankings.

* Peter Landy well remembered here (courtesy of Dylan Leach)

Footy website of the week: The Peter Landy Tribute website! geocities.ws/kartanoman/foo…
— Dylan Leach (@leachitup) May 19, 2013

08- Back To Jacks

Post 201... the first post of the rest of this blogs life.

This week, the numbers around the rankings disparity between teams, combined with average margin, make this round the second most uneven of the year. This after last week, which was the most even, and the week before, the most un-even. The quirks of the AFL draw are sending us on a quality roller coaster.

Before we got to write this post (and note the above imbalance), the mysterious 'Monty Carlo' from another tipping blog "WayBeyondRedemption" emailed us (YES... actual email) asking "(I) Wonder who you are going to pick in "Burger Feast Round"?"

It took us a while to work out what that meant, but yep, sure enough, it looks on paper to be another easy to tip round. If you don't get a burger this week, you never will.

...until the next easy round.


And, just imagine if the success-starved Tiger fans don't see Richmond get the win versus Melbourne this weekend.
... oh wait, you don't have to imagine... here's a tweet that helps visualise it neatly.

If Richmond somehow lose to Melbourne this weekend: twitter.com/mjdabb/status/…
— Mitch Dabb (@mjdabb) May 15, 2013

THE TIPS:
Unprecedented for us as we break all records in margin tipping, and toss Hawthorn a 122 point expected win this weekend. A massive number, never before posted.

Monte Carlo also backed up his thoughts on just how easy this week is by providing his tips, the Swinburne Uni tips, the Bookies selections, the Footy Forecaster tips, and the MAFL tips.
To no one's surprise here on the FootyMaths Institute campus grounds... they are all the same, and the same as ours.
It looks a very bad week ahead for Hungry Jacks.

Close games this week can only muster 9 point margins... not the worst round for close games, but not the best either.

THE MEZZOCULO INDEX:

Looking at the chart, of the teams looking to break in to the best half dozen or so, Carlton seem to have hit good form recently, and the size of their spot shows we expect them to win more in the coming weeks.
The Saints too have a bigger spot so should win a game or two, but their form is way down... no guarantees for the Seaford-siders.
Camp Cuddles*, pardon... Essendon have dropped in the form index and also expected wins rating as well. And with games against Brisbane, Richmond, Sydney and Carlton coming, you cant say they will get much more than 50% of those, with any confidence.

* Thanks to Liam Mulcahy [(at)MulcahyLiam] for that wonderful description of the new 'lets involve the parents after jabbing their sons' era Bombers.

Gotta get back...

◄200► Integrity: The Legacy of Fitzroy

Foreword: Thank you to our loyal readers, and those that stumble across us from time to time. This is our 200th post in less than 18 months. We also have a humble 25,000 page views in that time, as well as almost 800 twitter followers. This blog would have died after 6 months without readership. Thanks for sticking 'round.
And we couldn't have a better 200th post - a story about the AFL and founder club Fitzroy. Also included at the foot, and recommended listening is an ABC Radio documentary on Fitzroy and its ultimate death/merger.
Thanks again ,and we will 'keep crunching'! 
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Once again we dip our blog into the the waters surrounding the corporate governance and integrity issues. As we have highlighted before, the AFL seem intent on installing 'integrity' into its member clubs, but reflective analysis of itself (at least publicly announced) is missing.
The AFL need to reform its own practices as well as the clubs, and integrity issues are key. Refer to these previously issued blog posts posts: Reform: The Fixture, Peter Gordon Sunday, Equalisation Day and Editorial: Trust and Integrity.

The AFL currently are dealing with issues in club land right now. Big issues, the like they have never seen before.
Following the release of the Switkowski Report, there is a genuine need for all clubs to be tight and controlled in their governance. We expect the ASADA report to be even more explosive, and result in penalties the like Australian sport has never seen before... but that is for a different post.


A fight (perhaps a small skirmish, but certainly an indication of the decay of integrity nonetheless) comes from a club who are with the AFL in spirit. A foundation club of the VFL, now cast aside from Australia's premier footballing league, but renewed and re-invigorated as a truly local community club.
A club that exists as the remnants of a proud 100+ year old tradition of football, that has been up-rooted and forced to merge.

The Fitzroy spirit and its fans are fighting for the AFL to honour an agreement made between itself and the then newly merged Brisbane Lions Football Club.
Key to the agreement is the provision for Brisbane to play 6 games per season in Melbourne, as per the documents at the foot of the The Lions Roar website, below.

AFL BREAKS PROMISE TO CLUBS AND FANS

March 15, 2013
The Lion’s Roar, has'uncovered a secret agreement signed by the AFL under which the Brisbane Lions were guaranteed 6 Home and Away games in Melbourne every year. 

This previously unknown agreement was signed at the time of the Fitzroy/Brisbane merger by then AFL commissioner Graeme Samuel and CEO Ross Oakley. It committed the league to fixturing the Lions for a minimum of 6 regular season games in Melbourne each year. 

This year the Lions play a record low 4 games in Melbourne. The AFL are sending them to Tasmania to play a Hawks home game and to Darwin for a Demons home game. GWS, meanwhile, have been fixtured to play 6 games in Melbourne.  The Eagles, Crows and Dockers all have more games in Melbourne than the Lions this year.

For the AFL to have failed to honour an agreement, documented, signed, and recorded, is a failing of integrity at the highest level.
It may be a small issue, concerning only a few thousand people, but the principles of integrity and fairness know no boundaries or limits.
As Richard Ings Richard Ings, former Chairman of ASADA said on SEN:

"Sport is all about integrity. Not just the actual integrity, but the perception of integrity"

It is encumbent on the leaders of organisations, society or companies, to carry out duties with integrity (not exclusively, of course, other qualities are also valued). If there is no clear direction from the top, those that follow will stray.
The AFL power brokers at HQ, the self-styled 'guardians of the code' need to recognize and address failings internally, while applying stricter codes to its member clubs, lest those clubs follow the lead and fall into lax governace practices. On small issues like this, and also on the game changing issues such as drugs and organised crime in sport. The codes keepers MUST lead the way... clearly and cleanly.

From Confucius:
"If your desire is for good, the people will be good. The moral character of the ruler is the wind; the moral character of those beneath him is the grass. When the wind blows, the grass bends." 

Because football is not only about the now, or taking it week by week.

It is about all that went before, and all that will come after.

Its about the legacy we have been given, and the legacy we will leave to the game, and to generations yet to come.

Recommended Listening!

And while we are covering Fitzroy... we ask all our blog readers to follow the link, and listen to ABC Radio National's 'Hindsight' programs' documentary: In Defeat We'll Always Try: The Death Of The Fitzroy Lions

The documentary has been run at least twice on Radio National, and is an interesting study of the era, as well as the emotions of people involved in the game.

This issue in itself would also be a worthy study in AFL integrity... maybe for another day.

07- Da Funk?

A refresher on rankings and how they work.

1. Every team has a rank, and every game gets an expected result based on those ranks.
2. If a team wins and betters the expectation, they get an increase in ranking (and the other gets a reduction).
3. If a team wins but does not reach the expectation, they receive a 'non-performance to expectation' penalty  (and the other team gets a ranking increase as they performed better than expected).
4. If a team is expected to win, but doesn't, the same principle applies in 3, but to a greater extent.

Using this method, you can, with a reasonable degree of accuracy, rank teams over any period regardless of competition, as each team has a ranking and they are expected to meet performance level versus (NOT VERSE) that team.

So for example (using our rankings, or the Forecasters', or Troy Wheatley's):

CASE A   If Collingwood were to meet Hawthorn , there is a fair expectation that they would lose. We would pin that at about a 4 goal loss now. If Collingwood get to say, 4 points, then they get a rise. An 5 goal loss is a rankings drop.

CASE B   If the Bulldogs were playing the Melbourne, we pin that as a 3 goal win to the Dogs. Again, if the Dogs win by more, then they get a boost in rankings points. A win less than that, or a loss, means a deduction.

So by using rankings you can determine improvements (or otherwise) in teams without needing to play either the full home-and-away schedule, or even playing each team once.
There is an 'independence' away from the draw. It doesn't matter if teams play weaker sides or not, as the expectation against a weaker side is factored in. If we mix Case A and Case B, Collingwood now should be looking to defeat Melbourne by about 10 goals to preserve their rank.

So, that is how we (and I assume Troy Wheatley and the Footy Forecasters) benchmark teams, week in, week out.

Why this refresher in Rankings 101?
Well Mark 'Stevo' Stevens tweeted this, which we think is an unfair comparison.

Collingwood has won 11 quarters this season .. Gold Coast has won 13 ...
— Mark Stevens (@Stevo7AFL) May 13, 2013

This is unfair, because it doesn't take into account the strength of the opposition.
Our assessment is that in season 2013 to date, Collingwood has lost 28 ranking points, while the Suns are one of the big improvers, up 116 points.
And, of course, the two teams are still very much separated on the rankings charts.

OK... enough of the mechanics of rankings!


THE RESULTS:

BLIMEY!
What on Earth happened here...?

FT: @goldcoastsuns 16.18 (114) defeat @melbournefc 7.12 (54). Brown, Smith kicked three each. Suns register their first win at the @mcg.
— AFL (@AFL) May 12, 2013

As we were sailing away into another perfect tipping weekend, the Suns bobbed up and knocked that chance (and the Dees) into the dumpmaster.

And then to add insult to injury, Carlton were a complete rabble for 3 quarters and couldn't defeat St Kilda.
Which means in the last two games of the week, which we admittedly thought as the toughest two of the week to tip, cost us another big 9.

But tipping is tipping, and thems the breaks.

Nice to get a solid run of results under the belt now, and even better to be still getting them in and around the mark. This week West Coast off by 1, and Hawthorn off by 10.

The biggest disappointment came in the last two, where Melbourne were expected to win, but failed miserably. Another massive loss of 29 rankings points this week, bringing their total season change to be -157pts.
This also entrenches Melbourne below the Gold Coast.

From the Suns side, a first win in Melbourne is a wonderful spur for their confidence, and they also are now 150 rankings points above Melbourne and about to strike against the Bulldogs in 15th.

Both Melbourne and the Gold Coast are our biggest winner and loser of the week, and also lead the season nominations with 4 apiece.

Melbourne also picked up their 5th +60 blow-out loss for the season. Unfortunate for such a proud foundation club to become the whipping boys of the AFL.

Other changes... the Magpies and the Eagles change in 4th/5th yet again, and the Saints drop out of the top 8, with Adelaide moving up.

Again worth noting, as per last week, that even though the Saints won against the tip, their reward was not as great as for Adelaide completely dismantling the Giants, or Richmond's bigger than expected win over the Power. Those wins provided bigger dividends and allowed them to jump over St Kilda.


Looking ahead, it is all smooth sailing for the Hawks. Three games coming up against GWS, Gold Coast and Melbourne. Expect blow-outs aplenty.

We also see Melbourne playing the next three games against Richmond, Fremantle (there) and Hawthorn. Dees supporters must be having one of these years. (You might need to play this via YouTube).
 

07- Are You Goin' My Wayback Machine

So, the biggest talking point about his weeks games is...

Not the grand finalists rematch - ...Hawthorn v Sydney
Not the clash of two emerging teams of the season - ...Port Adelaide v Richmond
Not the must win battle to cement a top eight spot - ... Fremantle v Collingwood

But a re-living and retelling of a game from 20 years ago. One of football's most incredible games, sure. But nonetheless, a moment in time from a generation ago.

So its come to this. A trip in the wayback machine to a remarkable game from 20 years ago, between two bigger Victorian teams.
This overshadows the Grand Finalists first meeting of the new season.
The same two teams that put on one of the great Grand Finals of the past 50 years. A classic.

 So what does that say about the Grand Finalists rematch games?
    - Not good enough as a season opener.
    - Not good enough for Anzac Day.
    - Pushed to round 7 - Mothers Day weekend, where people have other things to do.
...and then finally, the ultimate insult, as it is lost in the press and media consciousness that celebrates a game from 20yrs ago.

No Hawks / Swans articles here (The Age)

Yep, Geelong and Essendon are both 6-0, which makes this match important. But in the context of the whole season, who could argue that the biggest game of the year is still not the one between the two best teams of last year? After all, Sydney and Hawthorn are...

The two best teams by our rankings,
Two of the three best teams by Troy Wheatley's rankings,
Two of the top three teams at the Footy Forecaster page,
and (awww shucks...) even Roby has them as 2 of the best three teams.

And while we are playing catch-up, it looks like the Herald-Sun has caught up with the news that AOD-9604 is banned under WADA code S0.
But has Essendon already announced its 'out-clause'?

"Despite the Herald Sun yesterday revealing details of Essendon's consent forms - which listed weekly injections of AOD-9604 - the club said it did not prove any player used the substance."

A bit like experimenting with drugs but not inhaling.


THE TIPS:
Following last weeks Triple Sunday of Blowouts, this week its a double header of close games.

We are tipping Melbourne v Gold Coast and St Kilda v Carton as the closest of the weekend.

But in reality, you could argue as many as 6 of the games this round could go either way. 

Such a different round to last week. Good luck tipping 9 this week.

THE MEZZOCULO INDEX:

Great past form highlighted by the position of the bubble on the chart, and expectation on future success are better with bigger bubbles.

The good thing about reaching back 20 years ago to that Essendon v Geelong game was that this monster track was number one in Australia at the time.

06- Sunday (Not) Too Far Away

As mentioned in this rounds preview...

"your Sunday plans should involve getting out of the house...
Do some work in the garden? A trip to the Zoo? Winery tour? Golf round?"

As expected, three games tipped to be near blow-outs, three games that went beyond our expectations and nudged into the blow-out bin.

The only positive for us out of that set of games is that our average margin tipped was out by just over 1 goal on average.
Not too far away.


The surprising change to the rankings this week was, as we tweeted about Troy Wheatley's rankings...

IS @troywheatley channelling Roby?troywheatley.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/afl-po…Hint... Check Essendon!
— FootyMaths Institute (@AFLFootyMaths) May 5, 2013

The internets may break as you read this, but Roby is right!!!
You can win a game (and win 6 in a row) and still drop in the rankings.
Troy Wheatley's blog has them down, and we have them down.


Why? Well I'm glad you asked*.
Essendon, who were expected to win by 88 points by our calculations ... didn't! Even the historically conservative 3LO / ABC Grandstand Football team were talking up that the Bombers should be looking to win by +100 points!
The 39 point margin, less than half of expected, penalises the Bombers 11 rankings points. Simple rule... if you dont cover the expected margin, penalties apply.
The contrary view is that the GWS did so well (in not getting belted), that they gain 18pts.

And in the week where Andrew Demetriou suggeted that 'scurrilous innuendo' should cease, Essendon turn up and allow the GWS to lead for two of the four quarters. (Feel free to contact us with your outrage bookies... I could do with the laughs).

Makes you wonder... *insert Mike-Moore style 'Hmmmm' closing comment here*



THE RESULTS:
No point talking up out tipping prowess this week... many, many tipsters would have picked the nine. We called it on Friday... easiest tipping week of the season to date.

Where we can talk up our tipping skills is in the margins.
Of the nine games tipped, we got 

 - close to the Carlton correct margin (out by 6 points),
 - closer to the Fremantle correct margin (out by 5 points),
 - closer again on the Sydney margin (out by 1 point).

Our table seems to have a tiered structure now, with the Hawks clearly dominant at the top, with Sydney and Geelong in the second tier.
A third runs from 4th place to 12th, where just over 100pts separates the 9 team.
Three final tiers exist, with 13th to 15th in one bracket, Gold Goast and Melbourne in another, and the GWS clearly at the foot in another.

This week, with so many games being close to 'as predicted', our rankings points have changed only by small increments.

Only one team (Port Adelaide) moved more than 20pts.The table though still exhibits changes. Collingwood and West Coast again swap places and remain 3 ranking points apart.

Carlton and St Kilda change places as well, after Carltons better than expected win, and St Kilda's worse than expected loss.

As before, the Bombers and Adelaide change as well.



* Bonus Footballing Thermos educational clip, from the team that brought you the term "...well, I'm glad you asked!".