Monday, 18 June 2012

Round 12: Thursday is the new Friday

Also known as: ... Lets kick off this Bye-Week 2 early and surprise everyone.

And so the round that just had to start on a Thursday night at 5:40pm (local time) has finally ground to a halt, early Sunday evening (after the final game kicked off at 4:40pm, local time).
Which once again proves that the scheduling of the game is more for the television audience and not those that actually pay, front and attend live.

On the game on Thursday, here is our thinking as to the AFL's logic...
The Australian Football team played a World Cup qualifier in Brisbane on Tuesday against Japan, their toughest group opponent.
The NRL State of Origin game II was played on Wednesday night in Sydney
...so lets get AFL back on the TV, radio and into the papers as soon as possible by playing a game, at a time inconvenient to Perth fans, without a public holiday in Perth the next day.

And as to scheduling in general this season, a tweeter called "Fat Bloke On A Couch" summarised it well in a response to Robbo from the Herald Sun *...
@FatBlokeOnCouch:   @Robbo_heraldsun TV rights deal establishes pay TV subscribers as Kings. Free to air only viewers poor cousins. Live attendees now peasants.

But now back to the weekends results.

And we have gone close again, this time tipping...
 - West Coast by 8pts, with an actual margin of 10pts (out by 2).
 - Western Bulldogs by 36pts, with an actual margin of 38pts (out by 2).

...and we might even throw this one into the mix too... tipping
 - Hawthorn by 54pts, with an actual margin of 65pts (out by 11).

Not a bad record again!

Our tip return this week... 5 from 6, missing Fremantle's win at the MCG. Strike rate boosted right back up to 72% (or 73/102)

Twelfth round results:

One game in the Blow-out Bin this week, as the Hawks drew away from the Lions to win by 65 points.



Strongest Gains:
Another moderate week sees the Crows gain 12pts this week, after knocking off the Saints at home. Maybe their home ground advantage is more than we have factored into our calculations.

A nice 6pt gain to the GWS too, as they managed to stifle a belting in the rain at Homebush (stadium version II).

Otherwise...no other meaningful gains.


Biggest Drop:
North Melbourne win against the Gold Coast, but were under the expected mark and so lose another 10 rankings points. Unfortunate that even in victory, the bad Kangaroos season continues in our estimations.

Otherwise...no other meaningful losses.


Table Changes:
Only 12 teams in action, and we have 4 changes in the table...

Adelaide have become the first team all season to break into the 8, as their win against the tip over the Saints scores them enough points,
The Bulldogs win was not enough to generate a rank point boost to hold 8th..

The other change is St Kilda re-taking 4th from Carlton. The Saints and Blues now revert to 4th and 5th as per the start of the year.

Of note... Hawthorn again nudge closer to the top 2 and North drift further away from the 8.


FINALLY...
In some off-blog discussions, it has been noted that these rankings are changing but the rate of change may not be reflective of the season proper, so we are now undertaking a review.
It is looking likely that this blog and system (in it first full season) may indeed be not weighting each game sufficiently enough to highlight changes in form accurately.
Keep watching these pages for additional posts on this.



* Original tweet here


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