Friday, 29 June 2012

Round 14: Cheer Up Broadcasters!

"We return to our regular scheduled football program, with 9 games a week from now until September."
And what a big week it is, kicking off with the Friday Night blockbuster pitting two giants of the 80's together again... Carlton v Hawthorn. Free entry to the MCG for anyone who can prove they have Avco Finance or are carrying some Wynvale Wines, like these guys here

Later in the round, there is also the dream fixture, the return of the NSW derby, the 'Sydney Shitfight' as GWS prepare to be pounded by the Swans again.

...and after those two 'huge games'... well that's about it, really!


So to the Round 14 predictions...
With another tipping challenge accepted by two (YES, TWO!!!) twitter folk of some celebrity, we have had to crank up the most modern and up-to-date FootyMaths Supercomputer we have, using all the latest software and mathematical algorithms at our disposal.
FootyMaths Institute staff inspecting this weeks tips. 

And what a set of figures this week! Of the nine games, four are looking like train wrecks in the making, and we also have 'the close one' listed as...
The Western Bulldogs to defeat Essendon by the slimmest or margins - 1pt!
Hmmm... old Bessie might need a bit of valve clean out after that! (actual margin tipped was 0.4pts, which is the second closest margin tipped all year).

And as always, we reserve the right to shout "I tipped this!" if the Bulldogs get up by that 1 point, OR if the result is a draw. Because a 0.4pt margin is almost a draw, right?
It's our traditional 'bet each way'! 

To the tips...

Its a big week for  Blow-Out Bin candidates, with three games looking prime candidates, and all around the 11 goal margin mark...
 - Sydney to defeat the GWS by 11 goals,
 - West Coast to defeat the Gold Coast by a similar margin, and
 - Geelong to defeat Port Adelaide, also near the 11 goal margin.

With those sort of lopsided games, we must tag this week "The Broadcasters Delight!"

A new addition:
And to further highlight how teams are going this season, blog commenter 'Mezzoculo' suggested a graphical way to represent teams past performances and future expectations... which we think is a great idea!
Currently, the past form is quite simple, and displayed below. Working up an automated index for predicting how teams will go in the next 3 matches is a little more complex, so it is left off the chart until it is perfected.

The chart above is determined from the results of each teams past 5 games, taking a cumulative movement of the rankings points over that period (Red indicates the team is 'on fire', Green is not performing so well) .

...and call us slightly suspicious, be we think Mezzoculo, is NOT A REAL NAME...!! [Insert dramatic musical sting here]

4 comments:

  1. Love your work again...great touch with the Avco/Winvale angle! Poor Besse....she must have missed that the Dogs got done last week....did being 2 points off a 'blowout' last week get them the chocolates in this one? But hey....we all laughed as she tipped the Roos last week. Also, I think us Richmondites should lobby the AFL to replace the current ladder with the Past Form Heat chart!

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Your Holiness!
      Always glad to have you drop by. Might have to retire Bessie. Throwing up a few odd ones recently.
      Have we been dunking the punch cards in Sherry recently?

      (Does anyone know these days know how 'punch cards' were linked to 'computers' in days of old?)

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    2. Punch cards were what you wrote the code on. Each was 80 characters long, with each character being an 8-10 bit character. You'd feed a stack into the machine, it would "load" and compile the program, and then run it (or you'd feed another set of cards as input).

      Sounds a bit tedious to be honest.

      Going to go out on a limb, the "updated" results were a better tip on the Bombers front?

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    3. Thanks Russ...
      There is at least one of us here that programmed their first computer using punch cards in high school. (mental note to self, try not to do ironic humour again).

      And yes, with the updated data, the tip changed from Bulldogs by 1pt to Bombers by 15pts.

      Looks like boosting the game weight from 15 to 30 is a must for 2013.

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