Friday, 6 July 2012

Round 15: Rivals Return

Its the week of hard headed clashes and rivalries... so much so that it might even have been called 'Rivalry Round' in seasons past.

All kicked off on Friday night with a big rivalry
 - Collingwood v Carlton, possibly the biggest VFL/AFL rivalry (but not the oldest, thank you very much Collingwood FC*).

The weekend continues with
 - the 'sponsored' Showdown Hoedown in Snowtown (sorry) Adelaide,
 - the 'battle of to co-tenants', Melbourne v Richmond (thanks Peter Landy),
 - the post-NRL Origin super-classico, Sydney v Brisbane (yeah, we made that one up), and
 - the "Black, red and white is all right for a fight" Saints v Bombers match** (Yes Essendon, you have white numbers, no denying it).

Finally the weekend wraps up with the Sunday triple header that features all the teams that start within three letters of each other...
 - Hawthorn v Greater Western Sydney,
 - Gold Coast v Geelong, and 
 - Fremantle v Western Bulldogs (...still Footscray at heart, and should be by name according to the wonderful Footscray not Western Bulldogs website).

Oh yes, and North Melbourne play West Coast.
... in Hobart.
...because they need to.

(Is it for the Ross Glenndenning Cup?... we have no idea.)



So to the Round 15 predictions...
Another tipping challenge accepted this week, and this time its with three (YES, THREE. The monster keeps on growing!!!) twitter folk of some celebrity.

And after our ignominious defeat last week, we have retired ol' Bessie and wheeled in the best technology money can buy - complete with a glowing endorsement from some bloke in an beige sweater!
How more 'science' can you get!

And what a set of figures this week! Of the nine games, six are close ones (well, expected under four goal margins (yeah, OK one is 25pts) which we think deems it to be 'close'), but it is dove-tailed with two more potential disasters.
And the 'close one' is...
The Western Bulldogs to be defeated by Fremantle by 7 points at Subiaco.
Given the form (see below) we expect Fremantle to do better than this too.


To the tips...

Its a big week for  Blow-Out Bin candidates, with two games looking prime candidates, 
 - Geelong to defeat the Gold Coast by about 10 goals, and
 - Hawthorn to have a fun old day and knock the GWS into next month with a 96 point win (second greatest tipped margin all season)


The last 5:
As we introduced last week, the last 5 game heat chart is here again to add colour to the tips above.
Looking at the close one it seems as though the 7point margin may be an under-rating of the game, with the Bulldogs sitting in the 'out of form' zone.
Equally, we have tipped the Saints, but Essendon are flying, so this could easily go the other way.
The chart above is determined from the results of each teams past 5 games, taking a cumulative movement of the rankings points over that period (Red indicates the team is 'on fire', Green is not performing so well) .
We are still working on adding in a 'next 3 games expected performance' data point on the chart too.



* The official Collingwood twitter account tweeted this.


We beg to differ, suggesting either;
- Melbourne v Geelong, as they are the two oldest VFA/VFL/AFL teams (both formed in 1859),
- or even the famous match between Melbourne Grammar School and Scotch College, played on 7 August 1858.
as the legitimate 'oldest rivalries in football'.
In fact, Collingwood were the youngest of the original eight VFL teams.
Bastard Wobblers, rewriting history again!
(references via wiki, here and here


** Promise that is the last Elton John reference

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