Friday, 13 July 2012

Round 16: Grand Re-runs

Yes, its the a round highlighted by...
   - The second '2011 Grand Final Rematch' of the season: Collingwood vs Geelong, and
   - The not-to-be-outdone, last-game-of-the-weekend, top-of-the-table-clash: West Coast Eagles vs Sydney.
The re-match of (in our opinion) the best two grand finals of the 2000's (the Grand Finals of 2005 and 2006).  

Since 2005, these teams have met 14 times with an average winning margin of 16 points, and 8 of the 14 games were decided by less than 5 points. At Subiaco, Sydney has also won 3 of the last 4 games too.
Expect this game to be a jim dandy!

And for most of the other weeks games... we might instead watch re-runs of Batman, F-Troop and Get Smart.


So to the Round 15 predictions...
Another tipping challenge accepted this week with (at least) David Pope daring to try again.

And this week brings on another good weekend of football.
Of the nine games, we have another six close ones (expected under four goal margins which we think deems it to be 'close'), and no potential disasters tipped. 
And this weeks 'close one' is...
Collingwood to win by 3 points over Geelong at the MCG
And if they do, it is the first time Collingwood would defeat the Cats twice in a season since...
   a) 2010, when Collingwood won in round 19 and in the Preliminary Final (after losing in round 9), or
   b) 2003, with wins in round 3 and round 18

And if they do lose (and lose big), who will call it 'The end of an era' for Geelong?

To the tips...

No clear Blow-Out Bin candidates, but you could expect Adelaide to tip the GWS in... again.



The last 5:
As we introduced recently, the last 5 game heat chart is here again to add colour to the tips above.
Looking at our Collingwood - Geelong tip, we think its about right..
The chart above is determined from the results of each teams past 5 games, taking a cumulative movement of the rankings points over that period (Red indicates the team is 'on fire', Green is not performing so well) .
Equally, we have tipped the West Coast at home v Sydney, and with the Swans flying as the best team of the last 5 weeks, they still could get up. That said, the Swans will also have to overcome Tony Tea's "Patersons Curse", as per the notes in this previous post.

We are still working on adding in a 'next 3 games expected performance' data point on the chart too.

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