Thursday, 9 August 2012

Rough Watters, Hard Lyon

Earlier in the year, we had a quick look at Fremantle under coach Ross Lyon.

On the weekend, your FootyMaths correspondent was preparing a blog post about how stiff Richmond had been this year in losing close matches (as highlighted by Rohan Connolly), when on Sunday morning while listening to SEN, Robert Shaw said, roughly, the below:
Robert was kind enough to respond as here, which became the start point for this, another blog post about losing close matches and one team under different coaches.

So, lets look at the data, first a summary of games won and lost under both the coaches:

Which does indeed show that;
 - to date, the Watters-era Saints have missed out on getting the close games over to the 'winning' side of the ledger, and
 - historically, the Lyon-era Saints were better at clinching the close games.

Looking at a 'rate of return' on winning the close ones
 - Scott Watters' St Kilda is now 1 from 6 (16.7%)
 - while Ross Lyon's team went at 16 from 26 (61.5%).

Which confirms what Robert Shaw tweeted.
Now as to the reasons for that... its best we leave analysts and football experts to prognosticate.
(pre-emptive topics: discipline, defensive mind-set, mental toughness ...*insert your theory here*)

PS... for completeness, here are all the games listed, noting that it does include home and away and finals matches, but does not include these drawn matches listed at the bottom.

Also, the 13 point mark was chosen as a cut-off point purely because of the 2012 losses fitting into that bracket. In looking through the data from 2007 to now there were more matches with results just outside that window, but practicality means we need to define a cut-off point, so 13 points & under is it!

Not included in the above:
2007: R18 drawn match v Western Bulldogs 
2010: R17 drawn match v Hawthorn
2010: Grand Final drawn match v Collingwood
2011: R02 drawn match v Richmond
If these were included, then Ross Lyon's close-match win-rate changes to 16 games from 30 (53.3%)

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