Friday, 3 August 2012

Round 19: We've Got The Close One

After last week full of major blowouts and predictable results, round 19 brings us the closest round of the year to date. Quite the contrast to last week, which was the most lopsided of the year.

All nine games could go either way...
  :: The GWS vs. Port Adelaide at the Showgrounds - a big chance for the Giants?
  :: Gold Coast against Melbourne - Suns might be able to pinch this one?
  :: Sydney away to Carlton - can the Swans keep going?
  :: Brisbane at home against Richmond - an each way bet?
  :: Hawthorn and Geelong - will the hoodoo be broken?
  :: Saints vs the Pies - one more close battle between these two?
  :: The Darby-Derby - can it go either way?
  :: Bulldogs v Kangaroos - will the Roos let one slip that they should win?
  :: Adelaide host Essendon - can the Bombers return to a finals flight path?

And in a week highlighted by tanking talk, tweeter Kristian Pisano (@Kristian Pisano) posed an interesting scenario for the Melbourne -v- Gold Coast game in a series of tweets that we have extracted here:
@Kristian Pisano:  Interesting ramifications in the Melbourne vs Gold Coast game this week which I'll explain in the next few tweets..... 
@Kristian Pisano: Currently Melbourne are a game up on Gold Coast with a slight percentage break. If Gold Coast win this week they'd be on even points....
@Kristian Pisano: At the end of the season, if Melbourne finish 17th, the only team left to bid for Jack Viney would be GWS.
@Kristian Pisano: With Lachie Whitfield the clear #1 pick it seems, would GWS still bid for Jack Viney at the expense of Lachie Whitfield? Unlikely.
@Kristian Pisano: If they don't bid, Melbourne would get Jack Viney with a second round draft pick and if they do bid, Melbourne have a very tough choice!
@Kristian Pisano: Melbourne could very well say, "you can have Jack Viney, we'll take Lachie Whitfield, and we'll also see Jack Viney in two years". Payback.

So, without tanking per say, Melbourne could find themselves in an interesting position if the Gold Coast get up for the points on Sunday... well thought through Mr Pisano!


But enough waffling on...

Here are the Round 18 predictions...
Quite a difficult week to tip this one, with;
Four games predicted to have under 2 goal margins, two more for under 3 goal margins and another just over a 3 goal margin.
In fact, using our predicted margins, this week is tipped to be the closest round of the season (average margin of 15.1 points).

And the game deemed to be the 'close one' in this round deemed to be the 'close one' is a three pointer between Brisbane and Richmond at the Gabba.

To the tips...

NO clear Blow-Out Bin candidate this week!
That's right... even the GWS and Suns should
get close enough to their opponents to avoid being embarrassed.


TIPPING CHALLENGE:
Another tipping challenge this week, and with all the close games above, its a real chance for David Pope and his assembled tipsters to defeat the FootyMaths supercomputer by a big enough margin that it collapses in on itself.
FootyMaths Institute technicians
working on this weeks tips.

At this moment we have another big week with five confirmed challengers. Still pending a few more tipsters to join in.

And, contrary to speculation, we are not part of some elaborate computer network that sends out cybernetic organisms intent on destroying humanity.We just want to destroy tipping competitions (and bookies) by making every ones selections easier.

A better life through mathematics!


MEZZOCULO INDEX - The last 5, and the next 3:
As we introduced recently, the last 5 game heat chart is here again, but this time we have added a guide to the next three games as well.
Here is how the Mezzoculo Index works (as named after the blog commenter who requested it):
A teams position in the red-yellow-green coloured sections indicates how they have gone in the last 5 weeks... if a team is in the red, its been on fire. If a team is in the green, they are in the wilderness and struggling for form.
The size of the team marker indicates how we think they will run for the next 3 games... the bigger the marker, the more likely to win.

Backing up the above by Kristian, our Mezzuculo Index has the Suns in better form than Melbourne, but less likely to win any of the next three.This weeks match might be an upset, and could earn itself a 'name' 

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