Tuesday, 4 September 2012

Home... And Broken Hearted (2)


So, apparently this data got a run on Footy Classified last night. No one from the FootyMaths  Institute watched, but we did see this tweet come through.

Thanks Mark!
Just remember of course where you saw this analysis first... Right here, of course! (last week, and in a slightly different form, the week before).
To the folk at Channel 9 and Footy Classified, we will send the invoice through this week.

And lets not forget that we do more than just look at the top 8, but also the teams that missed.


Numbers Fall
So, once again, lets look at how the numbers fall for teams in the 8 in matches against each other. (The number of matches played is uneven, match ratio is employed to sort into an order).

With this table, clearly there are a few teams with the best chance to win this years flag. We would say Hawthorn and Collingwood have the best chance as head-to-head, with a win ratio over 0.60 each.

You would also take Adelaide, West Coast, and Sydney into the mix as well.
Why?
Well, winning records of 0.56, 0.55 ans 0.50 against other top 8 teams is a good basis, plus they have home finals (or the opportunity for home finals).
You could also say that for Adelaide and Sydney, they have strong enough percentages to suggest they can win well against quality opposition when needed.

The bottom three in the above are less likely to take the flag, but we would put reservations on saying 'never to win' as;
   1) Geelong have a tough, finals hardened unit that would love one more flag before more retire,
   2) North Melbourne can pull great wins out when needed (refer to a round 21 defeat of Collingwood), and they have a Scott brother as coach!, and
   3) Fremantle can also play well if in the right mind frame, and they have the experience and guile of Ross Lyon at the helm.

All that said... it is a big uphill battle for the Cats, Roos and Dockers


Standing On The Outside
Outside the 8, we think that there are 3 teams who should feel unlucky that they are not part of September action (down from 3 last week).

Carlton: After a great start, the wheels fell off mid season. A well battled final few weeks couldn't get them back to contention.
Against the top 8 teams, they have the same win ratio as Fremantle, but a lower percentage. Unlucky.

Essendon: Another team with a great season, but after the loss to Melbourne they headed south without relent.
Against top 8 teams, a reasonable record, but not much quality to be seen.

Richmond: Have had a great, improving year, and if they won a few more close games (as we blogged about earlier this year: 'A Tale of Two Seasons'), they would have a finals berth.
The Tigers' percentage of 99.1% against the finalists shows they have been very competitive in 2012.

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