Tuesday, 6 August 2013

Checking Course -Round 19

Another two rounds done and dusted, and its another chance to continue our “Checking Course” series.
Previous editions after rounds 13, 15 and 17 are all available… click on those numbers to access each one.

In this edition, the numbers are again significantly more defined after
- 2 losses to Adelaide, Essendon, Gold Coast, Melbourne, St Kilda, and
- 1 loss / 1 win to Brisbane, Carlton, Geelong, GWS, Hawthorn, Richmond, Western Bulldogs, West Coast, and
- 2 wins to Collingwood, Fremantle, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Sydney.


Ladder Position:
The chart below is our latest iterations of where teams will finish, using results up to round 19 and predicting (based on our rankings data) the remaining 4 matches.

Looking at this chart, we can see a few obvious things.
- There are now only four teams with chances of finishing top.
- Richmond have a chance to finish 4th, but are more likely to finish 5th.
- Port Adelaide has move to our preferred 8th place holder.
- There is still some chance for North Melbourne and West Coast to finish 8th (!).
- There is a minor plateau around positions 11 to 13, not that they are very important.
- The bottom four teams are most likely not to change.
There is still an indication on the chart that positions 1 to 4 are hotly disputed, but most other positions are settling into position.


Looking a the data set that created this chart highlights the comments above about positions.
(NOTE:  In this edition, we have used bold text to highlight the current ladder position, so you can get some idea of possible changes)
- Confirmation around the instability of the top four teams positioning, as all of them have reasonable strong chances of finishing anywhere inside those positions.
- We have Richmond as a 60% chance of finishing 5th (up 2 places), and it is not unrealistic looking at their remaining matches (v Bris, Carl, GWS, Ess) .
- Essendon and Collingwood are more likely to come off a position or two, and again their next 4 matches suggest this is possible (Ess: WCE, Carl, NM, Rich / Coll: Syd, Haw, WCE, NM).
- Port Adelaide are an almost even chance to finish 8th.
- The positions 11 to 13 are in dispute amongst Adelaide, Brisbane and West Coast.
- There is only minor % chances of any of the bottom five teams finishing in any other order other than the current order.




Antony-Green style position ‘calls’:
We call the bottom 5 to remain as is:
        14. Gold Coast   15. Bulldogs   16. St Kilda   17. Melbourne   18. GWS.
We maintain that Hawthorn will be the minor premiers, despite predicted outcome to have dropped from 65% to 45%.
Port Adelaide make a strong case for 8th with a 46% chance of finishing there, but this is still too close to call.
And the big call… We call 5th place for Richmond.


Season Wins:
With only 4 more games to go, the variability of data is narrowing down greatly, as the chart shows.
NOTE ALSO that any drawn games have been counted as a ‘win’ for ease of collating and sorting the data. This inflates the Fremantle and Sydney data and positioning. A more realistic number would be Freo: 16.5 - 17.5 wins, and Syd: 17.5 - 19.5 wins.

The data to make the above is here (below), and again we have added the bold text to indicate the number of wins now. The ‘zero’ marks below are added to show teams current number of wins and we expect them to win another game at minimum.

The Fremantle data suggest a few more wins (at least 3) in the last weeks, and their run home (GWS, Melb, Port, St K) suggests this is very likely.

Sydney, Geelong and Richmond are also expected to win at least one more game. Each team has one winnable game in the next four.
   (Syd: Coll, St K, Geel, Haw / Geel: Port, WCE, Syd, Bris / Rich: Bris, Carl, GWS, Ess)

Of the other top 8 contenders, Port Adelaide and Essendon both are a 10% chance of not winning any of the next four games, while Collingwood are an 8% chance of going the rest of the season winless.

We also expect the Gold Coast and Adelaide to win 2 more games.
  (Suns: Melb, Port, St K, GWS / Adel: NM, WB, Melb, WCE)

The GWS will be lucky to score another win but have at least avoided the Fitzroy Fate, while Melbourne are still likely to get 1 more win.


A Final review of this type of data and predictive charting will be completed after round 21. 

2 comments:

  1. And then there is the effect of the saga that seemingly never ends. As a Richmond supporter, if what could happen does happen (i.e. loss of premiership points for a certain team) I think I'd prefer to finish 7th and then move up to 6th and probably play a travelling Port the first week then either finish 5th or move up from 6th to 5th, and play North or Carlton. If that all makes sense.

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    1. For you and the Tigers out there, this is the year where the Ninthmond jokes die. Guaranteed a finals spot, and potentially a home Elim.final too.

      No matter which scenario you describe, Tigers should be better than them all... but yes, North would be the one I would hate to face... coming home with a wet sail these last few weeks.

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