Thursday, 13 March 2014

2014 Rate Expectations - The Vic Ten

The third post in the series of running our rankings through the season and working out where your team will finish. (previous posts here and here)
In this post,we look at all the Victorian teams (in no particular order) in the one post, and start off with the ladder positions.


LADDER POSITION:
People have been predicting the end of the Geelong era for a while now, but we still rank them highly and expect another top 8 finish.
Our Tip:   3rd and 4th tie for most likely, or 2nd.

The Western Bulldogs seem to be on the right path, and we also see improvement with a very slim chance of a top 8 finish.
Our Tip:   10th, 12th or 11th.

Sorry Bombers fans, but your teams early season brilliance and late season fades keeps you rated 12th by our calculations. And the season ahead suggests trouble.
Our Tip:   17th, 15th or 16th.

Carlton will again be there or thereabouts of 8th spot, with a fair chance of earning it themselves this year.
Our Tip:   9th, 8th or 10th.

Collingwood look to hold a top 8 spot, but more in the 'making up numbers' end of the pool.
Our Tip:   5th, 6th or 7th.

Melbourne, adrift with the GWS at the foot of our rankings, look to have a chance of climbing in 2014... must be the fixture?
Our Tip:   14th, 12th or 13th.

Richmond should consolidate their 2013 season with another finals appearance and a good chance (1 in 3) of making the top 4.
Our Tip:   6th, 5th or 3rd.

St Kilda will be in rebuild mode this season, and we cant see any strong case for them to knock on the finals door.
Our Tip:   17th, 16th or 15th.

Hawthorn carry the 2013 premiership cup, and the 2014 premiership favouite tag. And our numbers support that wit a 51% chance of finishing top.
Our Tip:   1st or 2nd (maybe 4th).

North Melbourne raised eyebrows among our readers as they missed the finals yet climbed to be the 5th best rated team. This sees them poised for a finals tilt in 2014, with a 1 in 3 chance at top 4.
Our Tip:   6th, 3rd or 7th.

NUMBER OF WINS:

Geelong are looking good for another finals tilt, with a 15 to 19 win season predicted. Theycould miss the finals if they win 11 or 12 (4% chance).
The Western Bulldogs have a wide spread of possibilities this season, with 7 to 11 wins tipped. Not enough to secure a finals spot/

As before, our ratings put Essendon 11th now, and in predicting season 2014, we see the best outcomes as 4 to 7 wins.
Carlton will fare better, with a likely 10 to 13 win season, which will have then on the edge, or just inside, the final eight.

Collingwood could miss the finals (13% chance), but our computer suggests there is a more realistic 13 to 17 win season ahead.
Melbourne look to improve strongly in 2014, with 5 to 9 wins predicted. A far cry from the 2 wins of 2013.

As before, Richmond should consolidate, with a computer determined 13- 18 win season in prospect. Our near-perfect bell-curve team.
St Kilda look likely to not win many at all... with a slim 6% chance of 7 to 10 wins. Calculations suggest 2 to 6 wins.

Ladder leaders Hawthorn will still be hard to beat, and this year we predict an 18 to 21 win return. They also have an 8% chance of a perfect year.
We also expect North Melbourne to be back in finals contention, and the predictor pitches them for a 14 to 16 win year.


Tomorrow, we tie all these three posts together and produce the FootyMaths final ladder prediction for 2014.

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