Monday, 15 December 2014

2014 REVIEW: Four Adrift

To wind up Season 2014, the FootyMaths blog will look at how teams performed over the season and chart changes in their rankings as well as consider their performance against how we expected them to perform.

This will be a four part series, examining teams that we have clustered together around their current rankings points.


We begin with those teams still under-performing, but compared to last season, the picture is in some cases rosier than 2013.



St Kilda
FMI Rank Pts:FMI Rank Pos:AFL Ladder:No of Wins:
2014703201418th201418th20144
Our Pre-season Prediction:17th3 to 5
2013960201314th201316th20135
2012128220126th20129th201212

Another tough year for the Saints sees them win less than a handful of games, collect another wooden spoon and round out our rankings as the the worst team of 2014.
Following on from 2013's decline from 6th to 14th and losing 322 points along the way, this year they dropped another 265 points to fall to 18th in our rankings.

As above, 4 wins was about what we expected St Kilda to win this year, but 18th was one place lower that predicted.

The chart below clearly shows that there were very few occasions that St Kilda met the expectations our rankings suggested they should meet.





GWS
FMI Rank Pts:FMI Rank Pos:AFL Ladder:No of Wins:
2014787201417th201416th20146
Our Pre-season Prediction:18th0 to 3
2013420201318th201318th20131
2012397201218th201218th20122

Adrift at the foot of the table after 2013, the Giants were so far off the mark that our rankings considered their value as less than half the standard required (i.e. the 420 points at end of 2013 is well under any teams starting value of 1000).

But they have improved over 2014, and improved well enough to become worthy opponents... but not yet formidable, or serious challengers. But really, coming off a low base they really only could improve.

And their improvement was more than we thought, with 6 wins doubling our expectation, and 16th a much more respectable finish.

Looking at their week to week chart, it is almost all improvement, meaning that through the year they were consistently better performed than we expected. And we didn't expect very much at all.




Melbourne
FMI Rank Pts:FMI Rank Pos:AFL Ladder:No of Wins:
2014796201416th201417th20144
Our Pre-season Prediction:12th6 to 8
2013590201317th201317th20132
2012767201216th201216th20124

Another team that had a shocking 2013, and another team with a ranking significantly below the others at seasons start.
The Demons went for a new direction, and a new coach. With the defence tightened up during the year, a much better performed Melbourne compared to the 2013 version was the result.

That said, we over estimated them at the start of the year, with our estimation of a 14th place finish with 6 wins.
Which means they either underperformed, or much much more realistically, we over-valued their improvement factors under Roos.

Apart from the tailing off at year end, it was all positive for Melbourne.

The key indicator of this was the 12 losses in 2013 by 60 or more points, which was reduced to only 2 (Geelong in round 17 and West Coast in round 22, both by 66pts) this year. A great improvement.



Brisbane Lions
FMI Rank Pts:FMI Rank Pos:AFL Ladder:No of Wins:
2014874201415th201415th20147
Our Pre-season Prediction:15th5 to 6
20131018201313th201312th201310
2012978201213th201213th201210

Brisbane rounded out 2014 down compared to 2013, losing over 100 ranking points and a few other things too. Ladder position, etc.

In finishing 15th, they ended as we expected, and we also predicted the most likely number of wins to be between 5 and 6, so there was  a slightly better result there. A fair performance.
They also finished below their Queensland opponents, which would grate for them too.

They did regress in 2014, particularly in the early rounds. Later in the year there was some degree of improvement, but by then the season was lost.


Leppitch might well have got the Lions working as he wanted toward the end of the season.



Next post: Four more teams that just were not up to standard.

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