Sunday, 8 February 2015

Plans and Goals - Season 2015

As the AFL season draws closer, its important as always to set goals and make plans.

PLANS FOR 2015

PRESENTATION:
Already complete is the update to the web page to refresh the look (completed late 2014), and there are new tables and graphics on the way.
Also amended is the tipping scoreboard in the right hand column, though currently without data.

For the older reader out there, if it looks somewhat like how the scores on the old MCG scoreboard looked, then great... that is what was the aim.
Scores at the end of each quarter of the 1970 Grand Final
Image via scoreboardpressure.com, who sourced it from blueseum.org


STREAMLINING:
Over the summer the data has been migrated over to a google docs platform. This is to make the access to data easy from anywhere, as well as a 'data preservation' reason (i.e. its all stored remotely and saves every α seconds). A way of idiot proofing, if you like.

It also has made the whole process more streamlined. Instead of creating images and posting them for the tables and tips etc, its now all about your old pal... 'Cut-n-Paste'.


COMMENTARY:
There will be a conscious effort to reduce the commentary this year.
Pressures of work and family are making it harder to write, research and provide opinion and commentary of any depth week-in week-out, often twice a week. That writing schedule can't continue at the expense of a proper paying job and family time.

Instead the aim is to keep the posts short and simple, and if there is something worthy of comment or depth, it will be a separate post.

Yes, your cheers are being heard right now.


FLEXIBILITY:
Sometime in April and May, this blog will need to be done from Tokyo for a week or three, while both the AFL season is in full swing (and the various soccer seasons are winding up FMICL'ers). So this factors into the google-ification of the data, as well as the effort to write less.

So expect textural junk and late posts then.


NEW PROJECTS:
There are other projects that are extracting time from the Institute, such as the FMICL and FMITL competitions. These continue, but are more involved than before and require more time and resource.

Further, there are other collaborations that are forming now and in preparation for season 2015. More drain on resource, but they all are fun and interesting, and hopefully you find them valuable too.

Will let you, dear reader, know more as they bob up during 2015.


THE 2015 GOALS

TIPPING RETURN:
As per last season, another correct tipping return over 145 (70%) should be expected, and if 150 (72%) is breached, even better.


MONASH UNI:
With last season being our best ever in that competition (with a total that would have won), the expectation is to do the same again.
Another score over 1850 is the KPI, and nudging past 1900 will be a great return.


PERFECT ROUNDS:
The always elusive 9 from 9 correct tips is another target. In 2015, the target is to achieve 2 perfect rounds. A target missed in 2014.


MEAN ABSOLUTE POINTS ERROR:
The MAPE is a measure of accuracy of predicted margin to actual margin. As was described to me by a regular reader and twitter correspondent (@SgtButane), a value under 30 would be a very good return.
It is hoped to repeat last years return (30.2) and be around or under the 30 point mark.


YOUR TIPPING:
Not something controllable here, but if these numbers feed your tips, and that help you win your local competition, then thats another goal to strive for.
Send feedback during the year, always glad to hear how you are going.

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