Wednesday, 1 April 2015

01. 4TH AND OH ...DEAR

Welcome to the 2015 edition of your FootyMaths tips and team rankings.
Back for its 4th season, and by most measures it follows on from the best of them all.

And hasn't the AFL season started well?

Not even a ball bounced or kick punted, and we have
- 2 players to be bounced for (alleged) Clenbuterol presence, and
- another 2 players hit in the hip pocket for punting infractions.


But anyway... after a summer of minor fine tuning, it is time to start all over again for another hip, hi and hooray year, where, as posted before, you should expect less content, as the focus shifts back to tips and rankings.







To kick-off, lets look at where the teams are placed now as the season heads to Round 1.
RANKINGS
TEAMPTS
1Hawthorn1441
2Sydney/SMFC1393
3Port Adelaide1315
4Fremantle1304
5Adelaide1229
6Geelong1228
7North Melbourne1226
8West Coast1203
9Richmond1147
10Essendon1121
11Carlton1098
12Collingwood1039
13Gold Coast989
14W Bulldogs/FFC909
15Brisbane Lions874
16Melbourne796
17GWS787
18St Kilda703

The observant of you have already noted West Coast is ranked 8th, yet in the end of season prediction blog, it is expected that they could finish as high as 2nd.
This remains a concern, and is being re-assessed as you read this now.


The tips to start-up Round 1 are here... and isn't it great that Round 1 isn't a split round this year?
HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
RND 1
Carlton5v7RichmondMCGRichmondby5pts
Melbourne-13v-23Gold CoastMCGGold Coastby8pts
Sydney/SMFC-1v-2EssendonStadSydney/SMFCby40pts
Brisbane Lions-6v-71CollingwoodGabbCollingwoodby5pts
W Bulldogs/FFC-18v43West CoastDockWest Coastby18pts
St Kilda4v39GWSDockSt Kildaby4pts
Adelaide14v-13North MelbourneAdelAdelaideby13pts
Fremantle-6v35Port AdelaideSubiFremantleby11pts
Hawthorn13v-6GeelongMCGHawthornby22pts

In the above table, a few modification have been made from the 2014 format.

First the existing ranking numbers for each have been dropped to reduce the clutter of the old charts.
Instead, the 'Form Indicator' has been added, with colour coding to highlight recent form.

The form indicator also replaces the Mezzoculo Index.
This has been removed as it is a complicated process to create. Also, while the numbers and bubble charts were interesting, it could not provide consistent or reproducible insight of any value.


Of note: The AFL appear to have set up Round 1 with teams of similar levels playing each other.
Looking at this fixture, it is 8 v 13, 17 v 12, 1 v 7, 15 v 11, 14 v 9, 18 v 16, 10 v 6, 4 v 5, and 2 v 3 from the end of the 2014 home and away season.

This is reflected in the margin predictions above, with most expected to be 2 goal margins or less, with only one standout big margin expected.
But after recent events, who can tell what Essendon will turn up?

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