Sunday, 12 April 2015

02. WELL, THAT WENT BADLY

The first 2 rounds have yielded just over 50% return rate on tips. In terms of tip accuracy, it was also a poor return.
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
West Coastby23ptsWest Coastby69ptsWest Coast+24Carlton-23
Richmondby24ptsW Bulldogs/FFCby19ptsRichmond-16W Bulldogs/FFC+15
GWSby1ptsGWSby45ptsGWS+33Melbourne-16
Adelaideby10ptsAdelaideby27ptsCollingwood-22Adelaide+21
Port Adelaideby7ptsSydney/SMFCby48ptsPort Adelaide-19Sydney/SMFC+18
Gold Coastby39ptsSt Kildaby28ptsGold Coast-37St Kilda+20
Geelongby4ptsFremantleby44ptsGeelong-27Fremantle+17
Hawthornby34ptsEssendonby2ptsEssendon+17Hawthorn-13
North Melbourneby45ptsNorth Melbourneby82ptsNorth Melbourne+13Brisbane Lions-16
Even when the tip was right, the average difference between tipped margin and actual margin was 36. This is well over the target.
It becomes worse when the incorrect tips are factored in... up to 43.6.

So its a weekend of 4 from 9, and a poor start to the season.

For the standings, many a-change this week. The Bulldogs, Essendon, West Coast and Fremantle all the big movers.
RANKINGSPre:R 3
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Hawthorn1454-12-
2Sydney/SMFC139919-
3Fremantle131217+1
4Port Adelaide1311-19-1
5Adelaide127721-
6West Coast121724+2
7North Melbourne121013-
8Geelong1183-27-2
9Essendon114818+1
10Richmond1141-16-1
11Carlton1065-23-
12Collingwood1019-22-
13W Bulldogs/FFC93415+1
14Gold Coast927-37-1
15Brisbane Lions855-16-
16GWS84434-
17Melbourne792-15-
18St Kilda71920-
  
Geelong now sit on the precipice of slipping out of the best 8, with Essendon  moving up to challenge.
Collingwood slip further again this week and now sit just over a parity score. The Gold Coast also the biggest negative move this week, down 37.

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