Monday, 27 April 2015

04. WHAT HAPPENED?

As soon as a return to form is achieved, along comes the depths of despair.
Three from the weekend is poor.

All targets and goals are now under achieving, and likely to not be met. Season over.
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Richmondby36ptsMelbourneby32ptsRichmond-22Melbourne+21
Carltonby35ptsCarltonby40ptsSt Kilda-4Carlton+2
Essendonby13ptsCollingwoodby20ptsEssendon-12Collingwood+11
Gold Coastby6ptsGWSby66ptsGWS+43Gold Coast-34
Hawthornby3ptsPort Adelaideby8ptsPort Adelaide+4Hawthorn-4
Fremantleby6ptsFremantleby14ptsFremantle+9Sydney/SMFC-5
West Coastby27ptsWest Coastby53ptsBrisbane Lions-26West Coast+16
Geelongby8ptsNorth Melbourneby16ptsGeelong-25North Melbourne+8
Adelaideby22ptsW Bulldogs/FFCby57ptsW Bulldogs/FFC+25Adelaide-23

GWS continue to climb in our ranks, as the Suns (and Cats) sink (or slink) slowly away.

The question remains on why the tipping return is poor, and estimations predicting wins on those developing teams such as the Dogs and Dees. Is it simply, the model may not be reactive enough to cope with these sudden spurts and performance shifts?

Again referencing the Wheatley Power Rankings, note that GWS are 11th. Much more an aggressive assessment than that in the table below.
 

All the real movement this week is at the bottom of the table
RANKINGSPre:R 5
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Hawthorn1457-4-
2Sydney/SMFC1385-5-
3Fremantle133210-
4Port Adelaide13205-
5Adelaide1244-22-
6West Coast122616-
7North Melbourne12099-
8Essendon1150-12-
9Richmond1140-21-
10Geelong1135-24-
11Carlton10492-
12Collingwood104712-
13W Bulldogs/FFC95826+1
14GWS92044+1
15Gold Coast903-33-1
16Melbourne82522+1
17Brisbane Lions801-26-1
18St Kilda700-3-

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