Tuesday, 5 May 2015

05. STILL LACKING PENETRATION

... is how an AFL coach would describe this weeks FootyMaths tips.
An overall 6 correct from 9 is both under the expected week-to-week level needed to achieve the season goals, and also a step up from the season average to date.

Also, the MAE (Mean Absolute Error of predicted margin to actual) was also not to the expected level to meet season end targets, and also worse that last week.

In simple terms, "good but not good enough" to correct the horror start to the tipping season.
The results speak for themselves:


Zero from the first three, followed by a wet sail run home getting the remaining six.

To the table and there are multiple changes from the above, making it the most dynamic week of 2015 to date.
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Carltonby1ptsCollingwoodby75ptsCarlton-31Collingwood+24
Richmondby1ptsGeelongby9ptsRichmond-9Geelong+3
Sydney/SMFCby55ptsW Bulldogs/FFCby4ptsSydney/SMFC-22W Bulldogs/FFC+33
Gold Coastby11ptsGold Coastby64ptsGold Coast+19Brisbane Lions-36
Hawthornby25ptsHawthornby60ptsNorth Melbourne-14Hawthorn+14
West Coastby43ptsWest Coastby87ptsWest Coast+24GWS-17
Fremantleby39ptsFremantleby68ptsMelbourne-11Fremantle+16
Essendonby46ptsEssendonby2ptsSt Kilda+13Essendon-13
Port Adelaideby8ptsPort Adelaideby24ptsAdelaide-14Port Adelaide+8

From a zero from three start, to coming home with a wet sail finish of six in a row. An interesting week on the tip.

Over in the Rankings Table, there were many changes this week.
RANKINGSPre:R 6
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Hawthorn147214-
2Sydney/SMFC1364-22-
3Fremantle134917-
4Port Adelaide13288-
5West Coast125125+1
6Adelaide1231-13-1
7North Melbourne1196-13-
8Geelong11393+2
9Essendon1137-13-1
10Richmond1131-9-1
11Collingwood107225+1
12Carlton1018-31-1
13W Bulldogs/FFC99234-
14Gold Coast92219+1
15GWS903-17-1
16Melbourne814-11-
17Brisbane Lions766-35-
18St Kilda71313-
West Coast are great at home, but will need to lift away from to be seriously considered a top 5 team.
There is not much between Geelong in 8th and Richmond in 10th, so week-on-week volatility in this part of the table is expected, unless one of those teams gathers some consistency (either positive or negative).
The Pies defeat over Carlton saw a 56 point swing in rankings and has both teams switching places.

The GWS went negative for the first time this season and slip to 15th. It has been a remarkable run from the Giants... up 134 points before Round 5.
At the other end of the scale, Brisbane have not gained a point all season (i.e. have not performed to expectation all year), and lost 113 points to date.

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