Wednesday, 17 June 2015

FIRST AND TEN

Last last year, the fixture was analysed and clubs were ranked for their schedule toughness. Later, after some interesting analysis by The23 blog, another analysis was published that looked at the seasons fixtures in chunks.

The chunks were also grouped into two 'halves' of the season, split at round 10 for a ten game 'first half' and a 'second half' of 12 games.

Looking at the first 10 games, the Footy Maths assessment of each teams schedule was determined and is below.
Alongside the pre-season assessment of the draw (the Tough Draw Index) is the outcome of each teams first ten games, both as a standard win-loss tally as well as a tally of wins against the top 8 teams of 2014. Also included is the ladder position of each team after round 10 and the percentage change in the FMI ranking.
MEASURING UP TO EXPECTATIONSROUNDS 1 - 10
RNKTEAMLADDER POSNWIN - LOSSWINS vs 2014 TOP 8TOUGH DRAW INDEXRANKING CHANGE
1North Melbourne125 - 53 - 34.19-4 %
2Geelong105 - 52 - 43.43-2 %
3Essendon134 - 61 - 52.21-1 %
4Fremantle19 - 15 - 12.04+3 %
5Port Adelaide95 - 52 - 32.04-6 %
6Sydney/SMFC28 - 24 - 11.66-2 %
7Richmond86 - 43 - 20.92+1 %
8Hawthorn66 - 42 - 3-0.110 %
9Melbourne153 - 71 - 4-0.14+3 %
10W Bulldogs/FFC115 - 52 - 3-0.79+8 %
11Carlton171 - 90 - 4-1.17-21 %
12West Coast37 - 32 - 2-1.44+12 %
13St Kilda143 - 70 - 2-1.57+10 %
14Adelaide76 - 41 - 3-1.59-3 %
15Collingwood47 - 32 - 2-1.81+6 %
16Gold Coast181 - 90 - 3-1.84-14 %
17GWS57 - 31 - 1-2.04+28 %
18Brisbane Lions152 - 81 - 3-2.18-10 %

Lets concentrate on some extremes of the above data first.

North Melbourne were found to have the toughest draw, with Geelong having the second hardest. Both teams have found the season starting out tough sitting with 5 wins and 5 losses. North have fared the better though, coming out neutral when measured against quality opposition.

Of the six teams with the easiest draw, the GWS and Magpies have fared the best and cashed in on the chance presented. The 7 and 3 record the pair have collected is just what they should have done given the circumstances. The GWS have had 2 less games against top 8 teams, but still came out even in this contests.

Failing to perform with a relatively easy draw is the outcome for the Gold Coast, with 1 win from 9 and no wins against the best of 2014 from three attempts. Brisbane have fares marginally better. A poor start to 2015 north of the Tweed.

Among the mid-range team, Carlton have clearly made a hash of the year, even if they were presented with a fairly easy draw. Nearby ranked teams the Bulldogs and West Coast were able to convert.

Interesting too is the performance of Richmond, who join Fremantle and Sydney as the only three teams to be on the positive side of the ledger against last seasons top 8.
Further, Richmond have won the last 4 games in a row in rounds 7 to 10. In the pre-season blog Richmond were listed to have the toughest draw from rounds 6 to 10. Banking 4 of those five (and three against last years top 8) has been a good return for the Tigers.

Of the teams that played last years top 8 six times in 10 weeks, Fremantle are the shining light with the 5 and 1 record. This is counterpointed by Essendon going 1 and 5.


In the coming second half of the season (kind of), Hawthorn get the hardest run, and North, Melbourne and The Bulldogs get simple runs.

WHO HAS THE TOUGH FIXTURE?
ROUNDS 11-23
RNK
TEAM
'14 LAD
FMI RANK PTS
SUM OPP'N PTS
HOME / AWAY BONUS
TOUGH DRAW INDEX
1
Hawthorn
2
1147
14048
0
3.36
2
Adelaide
10
1228
14015
-100
3.24
3
Port Adelaide
5
989
13240
100
2.14
4
Collingwood
11
1226
13741
100
1.83
5
Richmond
8
1121
13532
-200
0.96
6
Sydney/SMFC
1
1393
13181
-100
0.94
7
Brisbane Lions
15
796
13749
100
0.74
8
West Coast
9
1304
13299
-200
0.67
9
Carlton
13
1203
13267
100
0.45
10
Fremantle
4
703
12618
100
0.23
11
Gold Coast
12
1039
13605
-200
0.22
12
Geelong
3
787
12940
-200
-0.28
13
GWS
16
1098
13358
100
-0.66
14
Essendon
7
1229
12783
100
-0.94
15
St Kilda
18
1441
13223
100
-1.08
16
North Melbourne
6
874
12349
100
-2.00
17
W Bulldogs/FFC
14
1315
12465
100
-2.94
18
Melbourne
17
909
12195
0
-4.70

Can the Western Bulldogs win enough of those 12 games to return to the top eight?
Essendon have a relatively easy run... is their season destined to repeat previous years and just make the finals?
With Hawthorn's tough run to the finish, can they step up and get themselves top four positioning?
Port Adelaide have the 3rd hardest draw, and sit outside the top 8... what chance to get back in?

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