Friday, 17 July 2015

RE-PREDICTING: 8 TO GO

*EDIT* Below has been edited since original posting after an error was noted in the calculations.

The season has progressed two more weeks and teams have won and lost games as normal, as well as two teams having a game called off in the most tragic of circumstances. And the Adelaide and Geelong 'draw' has impacted both teams season expectations.

LADDER POSITION

In the earlier post around predicting the season table, Geelong and Adelaide were to play 10 more games and they were predicted to have some chance of making the finals

Adelaide have since had the 'draw' and a loss to West Coast, and have seen their finals chances now slim, having 'won' enough games in 18% of the scenarios to make a top 8 position. Geelong also had a loss to add to the 'draw' and also have an 18% scenario win return that sees them claim a top 8 place.

This has opened the door for Port Adelaide to make a serious finals tilt. Current expectations have them with a 56% of the results returing them in the top 8. Port will need to win a 6 of their upcoming games 8 games though, which may be a tall order!


There are still 4 other teams with chances of making the finals.
Joining the aforementioned Geelong and Adelaide are the Bulldogs (9% return) and the GWS (5%)

The predictions now also place Hawthorn as minor premier, pushing Fremantle to 3rd with the Eagles in second. Thise three hold the best positions for the minor premiership, and in all scenarios were never out of a top 4 spot. Sydney registered 0.1% scenario returns outside positions 1 to 4.
Richmond move into 5th. North Melbourne were 5th but slip to 6th. Both those teams and Collingwood are also showing possible scenarios where they run 9th, as per the below table.

LADDER POSITION123456789101112131415161718
1Hawthorn30322513% chance
2West Coast30312514
3Fremantle35212915
4Sydney/SMFC5152258
5Richmond45242542
6North Melbourne25403051
7Collingwood30342394
8Port Adelaide1946218106
9W Bulldogs/FFC2727282411
10Geelong17119192330
11Adelaide141412181734
12GWS523272619
13Essendon88111
14St Kilda548443
15Melbourne7404211
16Carlton113806
17Gold Coast47422
18Brisbane Lions22078

As before, the season is over for teams from Essendon down.
St Kilda's recent good form has given them hope to finish somewhere between 13th and 16th, and Essendon could yet finish bottom 4, but after the win last week they may not. They will need to beat the GWS or Suns to avoid that.






The other approach to looking at season end data is to look at the number of wins per team (the below is based on wins only, and does not factor in draws nor for/against percentage).

EXPECTED WINS

From the same data set that generated the above, the number of wins can be estimated as per the chart below.

As per the previous data set, the same 4 teams fill the top 4 places, only West Coast and Fremantle move up ahead of Hawthorn. Fremantle can win all remaining games to finish with 20 wins, but there were only 2% of scenarios where that was likely.
Hawthorn have a brilliant percentage now, and with that removed they do slip down the table.

Under the 'games won' scenario, the GWS bob-up in 8th, but there are two other teams that also have a high 40% return of 12 wins from scenarios simulated. Eighth this year is a real lottery, and the below table with its changes from the full ladder scenarios above highlights that a draw and percentage will be vital this season.

EXPECTED WINS012345678910111213141516171819202122
1West Coast1114840
2Fremantle172539272
3Hawthorn1125137
4Sydney/SMFC2133341121
5Richmond42435317
6North Melbourne3344419
7Collingwood113403610
8GWS111443491
9Port Adelaide19304219
10W Bulldogs/FFC741457
11Geelong162743195
12Adelaide104633102
13Essendon104633111
14Melbourne114383881
15St Kilda64351
16Carlton146026wins now
17Gold Coast216712Boldwins now
18Brisbane Lions64305% chance

Above also shows the Bulldogs (now with 9 wins) most likely to win 2 or thee matches. Their 8 remaining opponents are Geel, Coll, Ess, PA (in Melb), Melb, WCE (at Subi), NM, and Bris (at Gabba).
If you 'bank' the Melbourne and Brisbane games, then to get a top 8 finish you would want them to beat Essendon, Collingwood, Port or Geelong. Can 1 of those three be picked-off? Can they also nick one from North?

Again there is an expectation that 6 teams may not win another game of the remaining eight. Unlikely, but possible.

This data will be reviewed and refreshed in the coming weeks, and re-blogged.

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