Wednesday, 12 August 2015

19. SEASON(ALLY) ADJUSTED

As expected, a few rough tips did not come home, and as a result, it was another 6 from 9 weekend.
The three closest tips (Port by 2, West coast by 3 and Sydney by 1) were the culprits, and expected so.

Other than that, a decent effort overall with a well-sub 30 MAE score, and two games under the 1 goal variance.
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Adelaideby6ptsAdelaideby36ptsAdelaide+10Richmond-12
Collingwoodby30ptsCollingwoodby18ptsCollingwood-16Carlton+3
Port Adelaideby2ptsW Bulldogs/FFCby64ptsW Bulldogs/FFC+40Port Adelaide-21
Gold Coastby11ptsGold Coastby14ptsBrisbane Lions-8Gold Coast+8
West Coastby3ptsHawthornby14ptsWest Coast-7Hawthorn+14
Sydney/SMFCby1ptsGeelongby32ptsGeelong+11Sydney/SMFC-22
North Melbourneby37ptsNorth Melbourneby35ptsMelbourne+9North Melbourne-1
GWSby18ptsGWSby32ptsGWS+8Essendon-26
Fremantleby26ptsFremantleby37ptsSt Kilda-5Fremantle+4

A few minor changes to the ranking table as below, with the most noteworth being the very clustered group of teams around the 870 point mark.
RANKINGSPre:R 20
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Hawthorn152914-
2West Coast1414-6-
3Sydney/SMFC1262-21-
4Fremantle12574-
5North Melbourne12310-
6Richmond1189-11-
7Port Adelaide1176-20-
8Geelong116912-
9Adelaide114411+1
10Collingwood1119-16-1
11W Bulldogs/FFC110641-
12GWS10088-
13Essendon916-26-
14Melbourne87810+1
15Gold Coast8758+1
16St Kilda873-4-2
17Carlton8443-
18Brisbane Lions758-7-


And now for some sense of team movements from the start of the season.

The solid blue box represents positive progress (additional ranking points) and the outlined box represents regression. The thinner blue lines are the current extremities of progress.

Of interest and worth highlighting are
the obvious big movements
- positive from West Coast, GWS, St Kilda and the Bulldogs
- negative from Carlton and Essendon.

and the 'disturbing' ongoing improvement from Hawthorn and the continued decline at Brisbane.

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