Tuesday, 25 August 2015

21. RECOVERY

A bad week again for the AFL with another four blow-outs of 60+ points. A blog post here on Thursday highlighted the situation where the previous record for blow out games in 2013 was under threat this year and certain to be over taken.

And this week, with 4 more, the tally clicks over to 41 games with margins of 60 or more points to equal the 2013 record.
The imbalance in footy continues to grow.


These blow-outs also make it hard to tip and keep your MAE in check. A weekly MAE of 40.1 will probably be the end to meeting the season goal of 30.0 or less.
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Hawthornby50ptsPort Adelaideby22ptsHawthorn-22Port Adelaide+21
Richmondby9ptsRichmondby91ptsCollingwood-29Richmond+31
Sydney/SMFCby23ptsSydney/SMFCby89ptsGWS-22Sydney/SMFC+19
Gold Coastby11ptsGold Coastby2ptsGold Coast-6Essendon+2
Geelongby30ptsDrawSt Kilda+12Geelong-9
Adelaideby52ptsAdelaideby87ptsAdelaide+25Brisbane Lions-13
North Melbourneby12ptsNorth Melbourneby11ptsNorth Melbourne-1Fremantle0
Melbourneby5ptsCarltonby23ptsCarlton+9Melbourne-16
West Coastby39ptsWest Coastby77ptsWest Coast+14W Bulldogs/FFC-14

Tipping wise, it was a return of 7, under the usual tipping competition rules of calling a draw a 'correct tip'. It was also a surprising 71 points under the Monash system which lifts these calculated tips into 10th place.

Now tenth may not seem a great outcome, but this is certainly better than 45th of round 5. And the current score of 1520 is tracking around the goal set at season start.


In the table, three pairs of teams swap places.
Sydney return to 3rd with a win and Fremantle performing almost perfectly as expected.
RANKINGSPre:R 22
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Hawthorn1517-22-
2West Coast143215-
3Sydney/SMFC126419+1
4Fremantle12490-1
5North Melbourne12410-
6Richmond123632-
7Adelaide119525-
8Port Adelaide118522+1
9Geelong1160-9-1
10W Bulldogs/FFC1139-14-
11Collingwood1095-29-
12GWS994-22-
13St Kilda88512+1
14Essendon8753-1
15Gold Coast855-6-
16Melbourne841-15-
17Carlton82510-
18Brisbane Lions765-13-

Port Adelaide sit in 8th after upsetting the Hawks, and Geelong should have done better than drawing with St Kilda. Saints though to their credit played well and deserve their rise to 13th.

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