Wednesday, 9 September 2015

23. (NOT) END DAYS

The end of the regular season is here and the final tips outcome is as below.
That's another six from nine this week, with a pair of upsets joining the Dees in stripping the tips of a genuine 100% return.

PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Hawthornby71ptsHawthornby57ptsHawthorn-11Carlton+4
Geelongby3ptsGeelongby39ptsGeelong+12Adelaide-14
Richmondby1ptsRichmondby41ptsRichmond+26North Melbourne-17
Port Adelaideby7ptsPort Adelaideby69ptsPort Adelaide+25Fremantle-23
Collingwoodby24ptsEssendonby3ptsCollingwood-12Essendon+9
Sydney/SMFCby57ptsSydney/SMFCby63ptsSydney/SMFC+13Gold Coast-9
GWSby7ptsMelbourneby26ptsMelbourne+11GWS-12
West Coastby67ptsWest Coastby95ptsWest Coast+10St Kilda-16
W Bulldogs/FFCby28ptsBrisbane Lionsby8ptsBrisbane Lions+13W Bulldogs/FFC-13

Somehow out of all that, the teams playing dead, the players rested and the players retiring, the FMI tipping MAE for the week was a reasonable 31.3, laving the (regular) season MAE as 31.1. Just outside the target.
Also a season total of 139 correct from 198 games. Just over 70%, just over target.

And the table finishes as below for all 18 teams.
RANKINGSPre:R 24
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Hawthorn1496-10-
2West Coast142110-
3Sydney/SMFC130013-
4Richmond126127+1
5Fremantle1227-23-1
6Port Adelaide122126+2
7Adelaide1219-13-1
8North Melbourne1213-16-1
9W Bulldogs/FFC1154-13-
10Geelong115313-
11Collingwood1102-12-
12GWS1001-12-
13Essendon88810-
14St Kilda847-16-
15Melbourne84311+1
16Gold Coast837-8-1
17Carlton8044-
18Brisbane Lions78314-

Richmond moves up to 5th leaping over Fremantle, and in a bigger move Port Adelaide went up to 6th as well. This is an odd outcome given where Port Adelaide are on the AFL ladder, but the tight grouping of teams in 5th to 8th (all separated by 14 points) highlights a sense of evenness to those teams.

Overall the season moves of teams is as below, with the big improvers from 2015 as West Coast, GWS and Western Bulldogs.
The solid blue bar indicates a positive improvement over the season, so yes Hawthorn are better now than in 2014... which is a worry.
Other nett positive seasons were Richmond, Collingwood, St Kilda and Melbourne.

And of course, the white bars represent regressive seasons (and that includes very marginal ones at Adelaide and North Melbourne). The biggest of these is of course Carlton and Essendon.


But of course the rankings will continue over the next four weeks, so expect to see more predictions later this week for Qualifying and Elimination finals.

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