Wednesday, 23 December 2015

2015: REVIEW & REFLECT

In previous years there has always been a few posts reviewing the season that was, such as this from last year.

But as season 2015 fades to a memory, the drive to look back and write a season review also wanes. In fact, writing anything has recently been a difficult task. The pressures of employment and family have made the toughest of foes in the fight for time and attention to analysis and blogging.
At least one season prediction has come true - a year of less commentary.

So this post is a cursory look back at 2015. Noting some achievements and performances.
Further below are charts of each clubs' change in rank, as well as measures on wins and ladder finishes against the FMI preseason prediction.


But first, a look at a few other season goals set earlier this year.

TIPPING RETURN:
"...another correct tipping return over 145 (70%) should be expected, and if 150 (72%) is breached, even better."

Outcome:
145 was achieved, which was a relief in what was a very rocky start to the year, and also has been described as a very tough season to tip accurately.


MONASH UNI:
"Another score over 1850 is the KPI, and nudging past 1900 will be a great return."

Outcome:
Season score of 1815 is under the KPI, but enough for 9th in the Monash competition, which in hindsight says a positional finish target should also be considered for next year.
Worth also noting a few FMITL players joined the Monash competition in 2015, and have proven to be excellent competition. Kudos to @SgtButane, who finished 3rd in his debut season, and
@MatterOfStats and @RankingSW who finished 7th and 8th in their first up effort.


PERFECT ROUNDS:
"...target is to achieve 2 perfect rounds."

Outcome:
Missed again, with only one week where a perfect 9 from 9 was achieved (along with three other 8's).


MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR:
"The MAE is a measure of accuracy of predicted margin to actual margin. As was described to me by a regular reader and twitter correspondent (@SgtButane), a value under 30 would be a very good return."

Outcome:
Again, with inaccuracy of tips at the start of the year, it becomes hard to rein in the MAE. A season MAE of 30.8 is a fair outcome, around the target set.
Worth noting also is that the FMI tips also collected four exactly tipped results and margins. This does help drive down the MAE, and should also be considered as an option to measure against in 2016.





As always, thanks to readers and followers, as these tips mean nothing without people to consider them. A year of less writing means less blog hits in total, but the stats actually say readership went up marginally anyway. Happy about that.

Thanks also to contributors to the FMI blogs. Those that offer advice for improvement (such as @MatterOfStats, and others), as well as those playing the current second season of FMICL, and the completed 3rd season of FMITL.

Another unexpected and unbudgeted result this year was in winning the Andrew Gigacz 'Ladder Ladder' competition. Possibly solely on tipping West Coast to finish second. A nice surprise to round out the year. Thanks to Andrew for running this unique competition.

Thanks also to the fellow tweeters I caught up with face to face. A few too many to mention, but those meets were well worth it. You are good folk, one and all.

Looking forward to doing it all again next year, smarter, and more accurate. And more social IRL (because somehow I now have an 11 game club membership).





ADELAIDE - 7th, 13 wins, 1 DNP
Ladder:      Expected: 5th        (Range: 3 - 7)
Wins:         Expected: 14 - 18
Summary: Season of not much progress, tinged with tragedy. Regrouped to finish of well.



PORT ADELAIDE - 9th, 12 wins
Ladder:      Expected: 3rd        (Range: 1 - 5)
Wins:         Expected: 15 - 19
Summary:  Disappointing results from a team most had in line for a top 4 finish. Underformed most weeks.


BRISBANE LIONS - 17th, 4 wins
Ladder:      Expected: 17th        (Range: 17 - 18)
Wins:         Expected: 1 - 3
Summary:  Continuing re-build hampered by a poor start. Look to have bottomed out.


GOLD COAST - 16th, 4 wins, 1 draw
Ladder:      Expected: 13th        (Range: 12 - 14)
Wins:         Expected: 5 - 7
Summary:  Another season lost. Poor start was rectified, but no signs of healthy improvement. 


CARLTON - 18th, 4 wins
Ladder:      Expected: 11th        (Range: 10 - 11)
Wins:         Expected: 9 - 12
Summary:  Massively disappointing 2015 with almost no positives. Not expecting much more in 2016.


COLLINGWOOD - 12th, 10 wins
Ladder:      Expected: 12th        (Range: 12 - 13)
Wins:         Expected: 6 - 8
Summary:  Mid season positives were mostly on the back of playing lower ranked teams. Playing as ranked.


ESSENDON - 15th, 6 wins
Ladder:      Expected: 10th        (Range: 9 - 11)
Wins:         Expected: 9 - 12
Summary:  Middling start that decayed to crumbling and chaotic season end. Much work to be done. 


GEELONG - 10th, 11 wins, 1 draw, 1 DNP
Ladder:      Expected: 8th        (Range: 5 - 9)
Wins:         Expected: 12 - 16
Summary:  A mostly negative season as the old guard got older. Not much hope in the chart back half.


HAWTHORN - 3rd, 16 wins
Ladder:      Expected: 1st        (Range: 1 - 3)
Wins:         Expected: 17 - 21
Summary:  Another season of doing what was needed to be done when needed. Solid, dependable.


MELBOURNE - 13th, 7 wins
Ladder:      Expected: 15th        (Range: 14 - 16)
Wins:         Expected: 4 - 7
Summary:  Improvement ladder position-wise. Ship steadied with decent results. Platform is ready for 2016.


NORTH MELBOURNE - 8th, 13 wins
Ladder:      Expected: 7th        (Range: 3 - 8)
Wins:         Expected: 13 - 17
Summary:  Minimal ranking points changes says they play as ranked. No surprises this year.


RICHMOND - 5th, 15 wins
Ladder:      Expected: 9th        (Range: 7 - 10)
Wins:         Expected: 11 - 15
Summary:  Positives outweighed the negatives in another improved season. Still a step away from top 4.


ST KILDA - 14th, 6 wins, 1 draw
Ladder:      Expected: 18th        (Range: 17 - 18)
Wins:         Expected: 0 - 2
Summary:  Losts of positives through the year. Good outcome the them and look to improve more in 2016.


WESTERN BULLDOGS - 6th, 14 wins
Ladder:      Expected: 16th        (Range: 14 - 16)
Wins:         Expected: 3 - 5
Summary:  Surprise package of 2015 that started well and got better as the the season progressed. 


FREMANTLE - 1st, 17 wins
Ladder:      Expected: 6th        (Range: 3 - 8)
Wins:         Expected: 14 - 18
Summary:  An enigma. Table topping most of the year, but FMI rankings say they were not 2015's best.


WEST COAST - 2nd, 16 wins, 1 draw
Ladder:      Expected: 2nd        (Range: 1 - 5)
Wins:         Expected: 15 - 19
Summary:  Predicted a great season, and they delivered. Hugely positive season that surprised most.


G W S - 11th, 11 wins
Ladder:      Expected: 14th        (Range: 13 - 16)
Wins:         Expected: 3 - 7
Summary:  Early great performances were not repeated as the GWS moved into solid mid-table team mode.


SYDNEY - 4th, 16 wins
Ladder:      Expected: 4th        (Range: 2 - 7)
Wins:         Expected: 14 - 18
Summary:  A moderate opening that ended with a negative season overall. A top 4 finish masking flaws.

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