Wednesday, 30 March 2016

1. FIRST RETURNS

Dumb luck or the simplest 'I'm a tipping all home games all year' would have got you 9 this week.
So too astute tipping.

Melbourne's win was always possible with such closely ranked teams and the effect of HGA.
Is Geelong really a new deal with Dangerfield etc? It's not easy to quantify that input given the personnel losses too.

And it's only been one week... but hands up if you are done with the Dangerfield deifying yet?
*raises hand*

PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Richmondby45ptsRichmondby9ptsRichmond-13Carlton+12
GWSby5ptsMelbourneby2ptsMelbourne+2GWS-6
Gold Coastby7ptsGold Coastby61ptsGold Coast+22Essendon-26
Sydney/SMFCby30ptsSydney/SMFCby80ptsSydney/SMFC+20Collingwood-29
North Melbourneby16ptsNorth Melbourneby10ptsNorth Melbourne-2Adelaide+2
W Bulldogs/FFCby7ptsW Bulldogs/FFCby65ptsW Bulldogs/FFC+25Fremantle-31
Port Adelaideby50ptsPort Adelaideby33ptsPort Adelaide-6St Kilda+5
West Coastby76ptsWest Coastby64ptsWest Coast-9Brisbane Lions+12
Hawthornby36ptsGeelongby30ptsGeelong+24Hawthorn-24

Three games tipped inside 3 goal margins a reasonable start. Round 1 footy is usually wobbly, with some pre-season footy hangover still in play as teams fully institute new playing styles.

RANKINGSPre:R 2
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Hawthorn1487-23
2West Coast1412-9
3Sydney/SMFC130220
4North Melbourne1253-2+1
5Richmond1247-12-1
6Adelaide12262+1
7Port Adelaide1219-6-1
8Fremantle1186-31
9W Bulldogs/FFC118526
10Geelong118025
11Collingwood1079-28
12GWS1004-6
13Essendon866-26
14Gold Coast86022+2
15St Kilda8576-1
16Melbourne8513-1
17Carlton83012
18Brisbane Lions79312

Melbourne proving the not-impossible in rankings.. winning and dropping a spot overall. Their gains offset by the Suns' bigger win than expected* and St Kilda doing better than expected.

* by these calculations at least as Essendon will 'correct' itself over the next few weeks).


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