Thursday, 24 March 2016

RE-UNPREDICTIONS

A few additional pre-season predictions posts and propositions to follow on from the previous post.
One on the likely make-up if a lower club improves beyond most expectations, and the second part is for a more shorter-term view.



In the annual season predictions post, the regular calculations were made over the season and fixture, including its biases. But every season does not follow the previous years example, and while there are factors in the predictions mechanism used in that post, there are always exceptions.

The 2015 predictions were able to predict West Coast to finish second, but it did miss other moves, such as Essendon's dramatic fall, and the rise of the Bulldogs.
By expecting the West Coast to rise, but missing the Western Bulldogs rise, it could be safe to assume that a 'bolter' is harder to foresee for mathematic-based tipsters.

So in an effort to redress that, a few 'bolter' scenarios are as below.

The premise of the table is that if one of the lowest seven* ranked teams performed to a significantly higher standard than their ranking over the season, and to simulate the effect on the season and chances for top 8 finishes.
The column labels 'normal' is without any modifications, while the club-labeled columns have those particular clubs performing above expectations.

BOLTER SCENARIOS
NORMALCOLLGWSST KMELBSUNSCARLBRIS
TOP 8TOP 8TOP 8TOP 8TOP 8TOP 8TOP 8TOP 8
1Hawthorn99.7100.099.699.599.599.399.799.6
2West Coast97.797.298.097.998.698.598.197.9
3Sydney/SMFC88.187.585.185.287.390.184.889.4
4Richmond85.983.483.280.386.586.788.283.7
5W Bulldogs/FFC80.575.879.373.980.775.480.682.7
6North Melbourne78.578.477.872.880.977.080.280.7
7Port Adelaide77.276.473.677.371.573.778.959.2
8Adelaide73.471.971.970.772.377.270.171.2
9Fremantle63.261.957.963.361.258.963.061.4
10Geelong29.329.726.131.928.133.030.421.7
11Collingwood22.033.116.920.718.717.513.718.7
12GWS4.44.530.63.53.72.85.12.9
13St Kilda0.10.123.0
14Brisbane Lions0.00.130.9
15Melbourne0.011.0
16Gold Coast0.09.9
17Carlton0.07.2
18Essendon0.0

* No simulation for Essendon because... well, you know why.

So as the table surmises, if Collingwood the GWS or Brisbane performed well above expectations, their chances of a top 8 finish rise to 30% or more. Brisbane's result is interesting and unusual given they were the lowest ranked and have only a moderately easy draw.

The chances of a 'bolter' result diminish for St Kilda (23%) and are very limited for Melbourne, Gold Coast and Carlton.

That is not to say each of these teams won't improve over the year, but that if they do, the ability to nudge into the top 8 would make for an extraordinary season.
It is also a very experimental assessment that will need review and testing further, but as a guide to 'likely candidates', it is a stake in the ground for 2016.

Further, the impetus for creating the table above was to try to replicate how the Bulldogs achieved a top 8 finish in 2015, as the 'bolter' of that season.
The factors used to modify each clubs' values and therefore expected outcomes for the season are not as high as what were needed to boost the Bulldogs into the 8 if retro-applied to the 2015 season. This is because any rise up the table is also accompanied by another team's fall.

Which is an another layer of difficult on top of the above.




Looking again back to the standard FMI predictive method, the first six rounds can be examined and an expectation of how many games teams can be won can also determined, as below.
EXPECTED WINS0123456
1Hawthorn43660
2West Coast6244823
3North Melbourne7274124
4Sydney/SMFC6364712
5Port Adelaide116383511
6Richmond31937356
7Geelong116227
8W Bulldogs/FFC334621
9Fremantle193633111
10Collingwood171262
11Adelaide41729281751
12GWS11564182
13Essendon15323913
14Gold Coast12363913
15Melbourne2745253
16Carlton314822
17St Kilda41518
18Brisbane Lions4456

A team's start to the season is vital as it sets in place a degree of confidence and strength for the remainder of the year. The above chart follows the same predictive expectations of the whole year but applying it to the first six games highlights where a few teams are affected by tough draws.

According to the FMI assessment of the fixture separated into chunks, the West Coast and Adelaide have tougher draws early on, which might explain why the Eagles are not strongly tipped for going 6-0, and why Adelaide could be anywhere from 0-6 and 6-0!
   (WCE - Bris, Haw, Frem, Rich, Syd, Coll)
   (Adel - N.M, Port, Rich, Syd, Haw, GWS)

North Melbourne's easier schedule also sees them as likely to win between 4 to all of the first six games.
The same case could be made for Port Adelaide as well.
   (N.M - Adel, Bris, Melb, Frem Suns Dogs)
   (Port - St K, Adel, Ess, GWS, Geel, Rich)

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