Wednesday, 27 April 2016

5. PROVEN

Always good to go into a round worried about your tips and find yourself proven right... for formula tipsters, the failings of Richmond, Fremantle and Port Adelaide are harder to account for in the short term.

Which all makes for a 6 correct return from the weekends 9.
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Hawthornby30ptsHawthornby3ptsHawthorn-20Adelaide+21
Sydney/SMFCby3ptsSydney/SMFCby39ptsSydney/SMFC+18West Coast-15
North Melbourneby21ptsNorth Melbourneby38ptsGold Coast-7North Melbourne+6
W Bulldogs/FFCby56ptsW Bulldogs/FFCby53ptsW Bulldogs/FFC-1Brisbane Lions+4
Port Adelaideby12ptsGeelongby48ptsPort Adelaide-35Geelong+24
GWSby5ptsGWSby47ptsSt Kilda-16GWS+34
Fremantleby42ptsCarltonby4ptsFremantle-33Carlton+18
Richmondby32ptsMelbourneby33ptsMelbourne+35Richmond-37
Collingwoodby17ptsCollingwoodby69ptsCollingwood+19Essendon-27

The margins were the real killer though, with only the tip for Bulldogs getting anywhere near close. The worst MAE for the season to date this week.

Season-wise, the tip return is still tracking ahead of target, as too is the Monash Uni score per game average.

RANKINGSPre:R 6
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Hawthorn1448-20
2West Coast1399-14
3Sydney/SMFC133619
4Adelaide131321
5North Melbourne12536
6W Bulldogs/FFC1229-1
7Geelong120225+1
8Richmond1160-37-1
9Port Adelaide1142-34
10GWS109034+1
11Fremantle1062-33-1
12Collingwood104019
13Melbourne92136+2
14Gold Coast913-7-1
15St Kilda873-16-1
16Essendon831-26
17Carlton81918
18Brisbane Lions7964
Dees in 13th, breaking clear of the Saints, but still away off Collingwood in 12th. Richmond about to slip out of the 8, and Fremantle decline further again.

And didn't the FMI pre-season predictions that "the Dockers wouldn't be a top 8 team" cop a belting at the time. Hmmm.

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