Tuesday, 10 May 2016

7. HEAD ON

This weeks tips results brought to you by the California State Fair...



PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Hawthornby30ptsHawthornby46ptsRichmond-33Hawthorn+5
Collingwoodby20ptsCarltonby15ptsCollingwood-21Carlton+18
West Coastby5ptsGeelongby44ptsGeelong+39West Coast-19
Sydney/SMFCby52ptsSydney/SMFCby81ptsSydney/SMFC+12Essendon-26
Gold Coastby11ptsMelbourneby73ptsGold Coast-32Melbourne+30
W Bulldogs/FFCby4ptsW Bulldogs/FFCby15ptsW Bulldogs/FFC+7Adelaide-5
Fremantleby5ptsGWSby18ptsFremantle-23GWS+38
North Melbourneby37ptsNorth Melbourneby7ptsSt Kilda+19North Melbourne-9
Port Adelaideby47ptsPort Adelaideby77ptsPort Adelaide+10Brisbane Lions-12


So that's 5 from 9 for the lowest haul this year. The MAE was better at 34.1, but still above target (which in this case is a bad thing).
All indicies are now outside the targets set for the first time this season.

Looking at the four missed tips above and the differential in 'form indicator':
Collingwood tipped - Carlton were +26pts better on form.
West Coast tipped - Geelong were +33pts better on form (yes Josh, you were right ...in this instance).
Gold Coast tipped - Melbourne were +13pts better on form.
Fremantle tipped - GWS were +128pts better on form.
Which all means more time needs to be invested in looking at a 'recent form' addition factor to the tips, over and above the adjustments made week-on-week.


The current table:
RANKINGSPre:R 8
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Hawthorn14166
2West Coast1386-18
3Sydney/SMFC133712
4Adelaide1307-4
5Geelong127739+1
6North Melbourne1251-9-1
7W Bulldogs/FFC12317
8GWS117738+1
9Port Adelaide117011-1
10Richmond1087-32
11Fremantle1041-22
12Collingwood1007-20
13Melbourne93531
14St Kilda91019
15Gold Coast858-31
16Carlton84718
17Brisbane Lions800-11
18Essendon785-25


The best ranked eight above actually align (not perfectly) with the current AFL top eight.

Not that there is any judgement on the 'top 8 being locked in' just yet. Still much water to pass under the bridge on that.
And as Troy Wheatley suggests under his system, some teams are appearing as highly ranked, but in essence are mid-strength, suggesting this season could go anywhere.

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