Thursday, 19 May 2016

8. TRENDING...

Up... maybe as last weeks 5 correct tips becomes 6 this week.
But 6 is still too low to arrest the decline in the season tip return/
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Adelaideby15ptsGeelongby26ptsAdelaide-15Geelong+39
North Melbourneby47ptsNorth Melbourneby14ptsEssendon+10North Melbourne-11
Hawthornby50ptsHawthornby41ptsHawthorn-16Fremantle+2
GWSby44ptsGWSby91ptsGWS+43Gold Coast-35
Collingwoodby9ptsCollingwoodby78ptsBrisbane Lions-22Collingwood+21
Sydney/SMFCby13ptsRichmondby1ptsRichmond+5Sydney/SMFC-5
Port Adelaideby21ptsCarltonby2ptsCarlton+18Port Adelaide-8
W Bulldogs/FFCby30ptsW Bulldogs/FFCby32ptsMelbourne-1W Bulldogs/FFC+5
West Coastby60ptsWest Coastby103ptsWest Coast+15St Kilda-16

There is a school of though that the West Coast are 'flat tack bullies' who can't win away from home.
And the available evidence from 2016 confirms that, with the Eagles 5-0 at home and 0-3 away, and the 'bullies' part also confirmed by the average scoring shots differential of 33.8-17.8 at home and 30-17 away.
HOME
West Coast2610166Brisbane Lions1512102
West Coast122092Fremantle81159
West Coast1817125Richmond9357
West Coast1816124Collingwood9862
West Coast2012132St Kilda31129
AWAY
Hawthorn141599West Coast71153
Sydney/SMFC121688West Coast7749
Geelong1815123West Coast12779

With the benefit of hindsight, it is hard to call any of the above visitors to Subiaco as a 'top tier opponent'. Fremantle should be a top tier opponent, but their 2016 performance suggests otherwise.
When travelling the Eagles have met top tier opponents and struggled - to put it mildly.
The evidence sets them out as flat track bullies.

Yet here we are, with the West Coast as the new FMI rankings leader, albeit by 0.6 points.
Like most Elo ratings, the FMI ratings measure and assess teams on who they play, and how they perform against expectations. 
And here is where we learn how West Coast have become the top ranked team. Their performance vs expectation has been patchy at best and to date have a nett -20 change in rankings. But the previous best, Hawthorn, have dropped 109 points.

So the Eagles are rankings leader by default.
RANKINGSPre:R 9
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1West Coast140115+1
2Hawthorn1401-16-1
3Sydney/SMFC1332-5
4Geelong131740+1
5Adelaide1293-14-1
6North Melbourne1240-11
7W Bulldogs/FFC12365
8GWS122144
9Port Adelaide1162-8
10Richmond10936
11Fremantle10432
12Collingwood102821
13Melbourne934-1
14St Kilda894-16
15Carlton86619+1
16Gold Coast824-34-1
17Brisbane Lions779-21
18Essendon745-40

The ascent of Carton with 4 wins on the trot has them move up to 15th, in combination with the yo-yo season of the Gold Coast.
As too the run of wins for Geelong has them powering up the table to 4th.

A quick look at the big improvers so far this year.
+ 21%   GWS
+ 14%   Geelong
+ 10%   Melbourne
+   7%   W Bulldogs/FFC
+   6%   Adelaide, Carlton

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