Thursday, 26 May 2016

WEEKLY UNPREDICTIONS

At the start of the season, the annual FMI pre-season predictions for end of year blog post was issued, along with a supplementary post of 'what if / bolter' scenarios.

And after round 7, these were revisited on this post, with dramatic changes noted, including the obvious drops in expectations of Fremantle and Richmond, as well as the rising Cats and Giants.
And also a general agreement that the final 8 could well be set.

But it was the large shift in expectations over 7 rounds that prompted the thought of how these changes tracked through the season to date.


Which brings us to the new page added to the top of the blog, just under the header - the swarms.

These present the percentage finishing expectations per team, week by week. Starting a the top left with 'P' as the preseason prediction, then across the page as the season plays out... post round 1 changes listed next, then post-round 2, and so on.

Down the table, obviously is the ladder finishing position. The numbers inside the grid are calculated percentage expected finishing positions based on the coming draw, opponents and the simulations for winning coming matches per team, run over multiple season iterations.

This presentation is club-by-club so you can easily see where any club is likely to finish as the weeks roll on.
Each chart set is in a group of three, with the option to scroll down to find more. You should also see the tabs at the bottom with the three next clubs abbreviated. Click on that and the data changes.

A classic example would Geelong.
This is a team not rated all that well by the FMI calculations before the season start, but with some sharp recruiting they have lead off to a great start, and the upward trend in the chart (abbreviated below) shows that.
Geelong
Pr1r2r3r4r5r6r7r8r9r10
11117487218
2411214281930
32912251511625
43132638147213
561371210111436
6815132021201224
7101523213125812
811162018212462
91710171384
10173963
1115
411
1283
1331
141
15
16
17
18

What it also shows is that after round 8, they were looking good things to be minor premiers. But the unexpected round 9 loss to Collingwood (which, lets face it Pies fans, was a huge upset) has knocked Geelong back a peg.
As before, these are full season emulations, so Geelong's loss must be coupled with wins to Sydney, GWS, North Melbourne and West Coast. The knock on effect of a loss is significant.

Similarly, you can see the lift the Cats received after a round one win against Hawthorn. From that they moved from a 61% chance of missing the finals to only 13.


So head on over to the SWARMS page and poke around.
Interesting ones to round 9 are
 - Melbourne and Port Adelaide, both hitting a ceiling at 9th-ish,
 - North Melbourne who hit the tough end of their draw now so a mid 8 finish is expected, and also,
 -  the precipitous decline of Fremantle - but not so far to be expected to finish 18th.

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