Friday, 17 June 2016

FURTHER FIXTURE ANALYSIS - REDUX

At the end of 2015, the AFL released its 2016 fixture, and like lots of other media and bloggers, the FMI assessment of the fixture was published.

To save you a click (and reduce my trickle of advertising revenue, damn it!), the outcome was that the AFL had scheduled the 2016 year to achieve its aims of top teams having a harder draw, and lower teams getting an easy run.
FIXTURE BALANCE - 2016
RNKTEAMLAD POSFMI RANK PTSSUM OPP'N PTSHOME / AWAY BONUSTOUGH DRAW INDEX
1West Coast2141623401-1004.37
2Adelaide612202480303.66
3Richmond71253232431003.53
4North Melbourne41245245361003.00
5Hawthorn1151324297-2002.81
6Sydney/SMFC51282243061002.42
7Fremantle31215243741002.38
8W Bulldogs/FFC81149229701001.17
9GWS111001232342001.11
10Collingwood121102241341000.24
11Geelong10115323659-300-2.19
12Port Adelaide9122122380-200-2.38
13Melbourne1384323296-100-2.48
14Brisbane Lions1778323378-100-2.66
15Essendon1588823778200-3.19
16Carlton18804229810-3.27
17St Kilda1484723854100-3.50
18Gold Coast16837236640-4.53

Penalised slightly was Richmond, and helped along somewhat were Geelong and Port Adelaide.

Two weeks after that post, another post was released splitting the season into sectors and analysing the teams who had better season starts than others... and yes Lions fans - you did get the spiky end of the pineapple, with your harder games in the first 10 rounds.

The last half of the season was also examined, and the pre-season determinations of the last twelve games are tabled here. 
WHO HAS THE TOUGH FIXTURE?ROUNDS 11-23
RNKTEAMLAD POSFMI RANK PTSSUM OPP'N PTSHOME / AWAY BONUSTOUGH DRAW INDEX
1North Melbourne412241471206.13
2W Bulldogs/FFC81255136553003.28
3Port Adelaide91217134891002.22
4Hawthorn11259130461002.16
5Collingwood12101013781-2001.60
6West Coast21108130441001.25
7Richmond7781130641001.19
8Melbourne138481415700.90
9Sydney/SMFC5151013143-1000.41
10GWS111155132481000.27
11Adelaide6128212989-1000.02
12Fremantle3115912941-100-0.86
13Geelong1085212936-200-1.38
14Essendon15892132420-1.61
15Gold Coast161421131400-1.64
16Brisbane Lions1783812726-100-2.83
17Carlton18818125590-3.77
18St Kilda141224123270-3.87

North Melbourne determined to have a very tough draw coming into the finals that may see their early season 10-2 bubble burst.




With 12 weeks played and the bye weeks coming, its worth revisiting the fixture and reassessing who has the hardest run home, but this time applying the ratings strength of teams as has been allowed to evolve over rounds 1 through 12.
The table below shows the outcomes and is only based on the remaining games to be played. And it is still not good news for North Melbourne!

FIXTURE BALANCE - 2016 (last 10 games, adjusted)
RNKTEAMLAD POSFMI RANK PTSSUM OPP'N PTSHOME / AWAY BONUSTOUGH DRAW INDEX
1North Melbourne112571246405.79
2Fremantle16102711867-1002.60
3Hawthorn51361111451002.22
4Port Adelaide91192104171001.48
5Collingwood14100311661-1001.47
6Melbourne109911023801.09
7Richmond13107297332001.07
8W Bulldogs/FFC4124596443000.77
9Sydney/SMFC3133611244-2000.67
10West Coast8137892451000.63
11Adelaide7135710435-100-0.43
12Carlton1188610370100-0.70
13Geelong2128610614-100-0.90
14Brisbane Lions177119953-100-1.87
15GWS6130587460-2.21
16Essendon1870310941-100-2.52
17Gold Coast15774104650-2.79
18St Kilda1292710262-100-3.55
And GWS have a relatively easy run home at the other end of the table.

These outcomes are also reflected in the SWARMS predictions, where there is an 89% chance of finishing in the top 2, and North Melbourne have a 91% chance of finishing between 5th and 9th.

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