Monday, 11 July 2016

16. MISSED CHANCES

Two teams missed their chances to cement themselves for deep September action. And the door was duly opened for two others to claim the lead for the title.


Geelong failed against Sydney on its own dung-heap and allows the Swans to claim some leadership in flag favoritism.
GWS did itself (and the football world) a dis-service* by rolling over to Collingwood, and now could wind up missing the top 4 and the double chance.

* If it keeps the Pies in boring lower-table obscurity, then that is not necessarily a bad thing.


Otherwise - seven tips from 9 and a healthy MAE.
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Hawthornby4ptsHawthornby22ptsPort Adelaide-7Hawthorn+6
Geelongby9ptsSydney/SMFCby38ptsGeelong-18Sydney/SMFC+16
GWSby42ptsCollingwoodby32ptsGWS-23Collingwood+21
Gold Coastby10ptsGold Coastby26ptsGold Coast+16Brisbane Lions-15
W Bulldogs/FFCby20ptsW Bulldogs/FFCby10ptsW Bulldogs/FFC-3Richmond+2
Melbourneby10ptsMelbourneby32ptsMelbourne+16Fremantle-9
Adelaideby38ptsAdelaideby60ptsCarlton-9Adelaide+17
West Coastby24ptsWest Coastby32ptsWest Coast+3North Melbourne-5
St Kildaby24ptsSt Kildaby11ptsEssendon+3St Kilda-4


And while the chat is about decent tips, here is the FMI results and how they track to targets set pre-season.


The red and blue lines are the tip % and Monash Uni scores, and both are trending up over the last 7 or so rounds.
The green line is the MAE, and it is trending down over the same period - and for this measure, trending down is a good thing.

For the first time since round 3, all indicators have crossed the Rubicon and are bettering goals.


The rankings tables change only a little, and Adelaide move further ahead.

RANKINGSPre:R 17
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Adelaide139418
2West Coast13703
3Hawthorn13536
4Sydney/SMFC134316
5GWS1290-22
6Geelong1277-17
7North Melbourne1251-4
8W Bulldogs/FFC1233-3
9Port Adelaide1183-7
10Richmond10463
11Collingwood103621+1
12Fremantle1019-8-1
13Melbourne101717
14St Kilda929-4
15Carlton876-8
16Gold Coast82417
17Essendon7014+1
18Brisbane Lions700-15-1

Oh and look! Brisbane are now the worst. Its like some sort of political contest of who can be the crappyest on policy, but for footy.

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