Tuesday, 19 July 2016

17. BIG IMPROVER

The odd thing with tipping via machine is that of trying to pick the bolter, the roughie, the confident teams from those sadly lacking confidence.
Making some semblance of an attempt on these pages, the form guide numbers are published and sometimes commented on.

Last week, under time restrictions and on the side of the Hume Highway, the numbers went out to all and no mention was made of form. And looking back with the hindsight goggles on, Port Adelaide and Hawthorn were all positive form vs their opponents negative form.
Yeah and Melbourne had better form that St Kilda. So its not always right, a bit like 'Smooth' Jimmy Apollo.

SIX from the 9 available, but still a very good MAE of 24.0.

PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Sydney/SMFCby11ptsHawthornby5ptsSydney/SMFC-6Hawthorn+5
Geelongby14ptsGeelongby17ptsFremantle-6Geelong+1
Richmondby35ptsRichmondby19ptsRichmond-11Essendon+4
North Melbourneby19ptsPort Adelaideby28ptsNorth Melbourne-19Port Adelaide+17
W Bulldogs/FFCby41ptsW Bulldogs/FFCby48ptsW Bulldogs/FFC+2Gold Coast-3
Adelaideby48ptsAdelaideby28ptsAdelaide-6Collingwood+15
West Coastby38ptsWest Coastby7ptsCarlton+9West Coast-12
Melbourneby9ptsSt Kildaby36ptsSt Kilda+16Melbourne-17
GWSby48ptsGWSby79ptsBrisbane Lions-21GWS+11


Hawks go against the tip, and with the Eagles letting Carlton off the hook, those two teams change places. Hawthorn now clearly ready to pounce, sorry swoop.

RANKINGSPre:R 18
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Adelaide1388-6
2Hawthorn13596+1
3West Coast1358-12-1
4Sydney/SMFC1337-6
5GWS130212
6Geelong12781
7W Bulldogs/FFC12362+1
8North Melbourne1232-19-1
9Port Adelaide120017
10Collingwood105215+1
11Richmond1035-11-1
12Fremantle1013-5
13Melbourne1001-16
14St Kilda94516
15Carlton8869
16Gold Coast821-3
17Essendon7065
18Brisbane Lions679-21

Also changing are North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs, while Collingwood move to 10th over Richmond, but still a very long way from 9th.


The table above has had significant movement over the past season, so why not lest view each clubs nett change graphically.

Below shows the huge gain by GWS, with secondary smaller but till significant gains by Adelaide and Melbourne.
Conversely, and not unexpectedly, one of the the biggest losses this season is by Essendon. But nudging them out are Richmond and Fremantle.



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