Wednesday, 3 August 2016

19. A DIVISION, RING THE BELLS!

What a few days of writing and rewriting this post.
First the idea was to chart the GWS rise to its first finals appearance. 
Then some whispers of board challenges at Tigerland have prompted some charts on the Hardwick era. 

And today, it's the daftest idea in footy by 'BunkerBoy' Connolly. Two divisions with promotion and relegation. 
"Its a division that's required" he shouts.


From the FMI conference proposal posted a long time back,
"... conferencing of teams into tiered divisions should be avoided. Perceptions of premier conferences, either via a promotion/relegation system, or via pooling the powerhouse clubs together.
Those type of structures will only reinforce and entrench imbalance."
Who will follow a team in the second division? What media will devote time and resource to perceived lower tier teams? Take a look at your local paper and see the column inches set aside for your state league.
It will be toxic for football to entrench any form of elite/non-elite differentiation.

OK, so now the rest.

Firstly,
The results from tipping week 19.
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Geelongby19ptsGeelongby21ptsGeelong+2W Bulldogs/FFC-9
GWSby42ptsGWSby88ptsGWS+23Richmond-29
Hawthornby60ptsHawthornby19ptsHawthorn-12Carlton+20
West Coastby18ptsCollingwoodby19ptsCollingwood+16West Coast-25
Port Adelaideby38ptsPort Adelaideby94ptsBrisbane Lions-20Port Adelaide+21
North Melbourneby28ptsNorth Melbourneby23ptsNorth Melbourne-5St Kilda+14
Melbourneby30ptsMelbourneby2ptsMelbourne-9Gold Coast+19
Sydney/SMFCby21ptsSydney/SMFCby90ptsFremantle-30Sydney/SMFC+21
Adelaideby82ptsAdelaideby82ptsAdelaide0Essendon-11

Eight from nine when there really should have been a nine... Josh Pinn is right - West Coast are done like a dinner.

The rank table changes are interesting too.
RANKINGSPre:R 20
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Adelaide13780
2Hawthorn1362-12
3Sydney/SMFC134722
4GWS133623+1
5West Coast1315-4-1
6Geelong12912
7North Melbourne1235-5
8Port Adelaide121522+1
9W Bulldogs/FFC1212-8-1
10Collingwood106016
11Melbourne1005-8+1
12Richmond986-28-1
13St Kilda98415+1
14Fremantle969-30-1
15Carlton92020
16Gold Coast85919
17Brisbane Lions678-20
18Essendon675-11

Richmond again slip a point, while the GWS also gain one. Port are the best team outside the top 8 as they sneak in to the rankings best 8. Go figure Saints fans (but at least you are on the rise too).


Now to the promised charts.

GWS have secured a finals berth and are on track for home final as well. Its been a great year for them, and a result of the past investment in 'playing the kids'. The charts below highlight their ascent.

Ladder Position by Season.


Win Percentages by Season


FMI Rankings Points at Season End


This is some impressive work by the Giants.

Last post, the same charts were posted for Collingwood showing the opposite effect. A long steady decline by the Magpies under Buckley.
Along with the above rise, the below charts are also presented to show the Tigers under Hardwick. In this set, there was a steady increase and plateau prior to this seasons decline.
Is it time for Hardwick to go, on the back of this one year?
If so, the questions need to be asked at Collingwood as well.



Ladder Position by Season.

  Win Percentages by Season

  FMI Rankings Points at Season End


All the above have 2016 as current to end round 19, and 2017 is a projection from the end of season 2016.
Projections on ladder position and win percentage taken from accumulated data from this blog, and via Matter of Stats, Footy Forecaster, GRAFT Ratings and the Max Barry Squiggle.

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