Wednesday, 7 September 2016

24. FINALS COUNTED DOWN

UPDATED


A few tables need adding in to refresh data normally posted, as well as to respond to a reader question.

To the reader question first - the below table was suggested o show how great the margins of victory of the teams when playing each other,
TOP 8 - WINNING MARGIN BRACKETS
Adelaide112-
Geelong1142
GWS-113
Hawthorn4--2
North Melbourne11--
Sydney/SMFC1122
W Bulldogs/FFC22--
West Coast1-3-
1-1213-2425-3637+

Brackets have been employed for simplicity, and the key read of the table is the ability of Hawthorn to win the close ones, and the power of GWS in this clutch of teams.


The other table run last year that needs included is the one below that predicts the depth teams will go into the September weeks.
TOP 8 - % CHANCE TO PLAY IN FINALS
Adelaide100864325
Geelong100348734
GWS100547450
Hawthorn100667421
North Melbourne1001421
Sydney/SMFC100468158
W Bulldogs/FFC1002471
West Coast10076329
Q/E FSFPFGF

So, yes, for week 1 of the finals, everyone is at 100%. Then the next rounds are diminished values as teams chances drop off.

And yes - 1) there can be scenarions such as Geelong where the chance of making the Prelim week is higher than the Semis, and 2) this was run BEFORE the first final.




Normally at season's end the blog gets to do its usual blog post about who the final 8 players have really beaten. To get a line on where the best teams sit amongst themselves. This is usually a post of its own with other information, but this year it exists in the tips post for the first week of the finals.


So here it is, short and sweet for 2016.
TOP 8 TEAMS vs EACH OTHER
Geelong82126.080.0
Sydney/SMFC64112.060.0
Hawthorn6495.760.0
GWS54117.855.6
West Coast4590.244.4
W Bulldogs/FFC4589.344.4
Adelaide4698.040.0
North Melbourne2979.118.2
W'sL's%ageMR

The Cats have the best record, and North may well be best forgotten about.
And some other measures...? 

    - Try GWS who have a nett positive return and are the only team to score a 10 goal or more win among this bracket.
    - Swans the best defenders, Cats the heaviest scorers.
    - Hawks most wins under 10 points.
    - And the Eagles have 3 of their 4 wins against this bracket in their last 3 games.


Its a very even finals 7. Sorry North fans.

And, going out on a limb, the week break before the finals sets this years series up for something that hasn't happened for a long time. With the ability to refresh players after a long campaign combined with the even-ness of the teams, this year is the best chance for a Premier that finished outside the top 4.

And if that happens - expect:
- a whole mess of people to be super happy that the value of finishing outside the top 4 can be realised with ultimate success and begin calls for the retention of the 1 week break before finals to open up the Premiership race, AND
- the teams that did finish top 4 will bleat about how they have lost the advantage gained by being so good through the season, and begin lobbying for the immediate abolishment of the week break before the finals.


This little football-blogging black duck...?
... Is all for the week off.

Give us all the chance to follow the state leagues as well as local metro and country league finals too.
Give the teams in 5th-8th a chance to refresh and reset for a final push at the summit.
Give everyone a fair go.





Its Finals Week 1, so lets cook these tips.

HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
QFSydney/SMFC49v24GWSStadSydney/SMFCby7pts
QFGeelong12v-21HawthornMCGHawthornby2pts
EFAdelaide11v-22North MelbourneAdelAdelaideby33pts
EFWest Coast4v-17W Bulldogs/FFCSubiWest Coastby29pts


The form indicator suggest Sydney might go further than 7 points, and Geelong are a decent chance to tip Hawthorn on their ear.

Both Qualifiers look to be great games, and the ticket sales suggest that as well.
The two Elimination finals are less interesting, but then again its finals footy where anything can happen. Its a different game to home & away footy.

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