Wednesday, 14 September 2016

25. FOR THE LAST FOUR

Week 25 of the season brings us the two Semi Finals as we whittle 6 teams down to 4.

The teams remaining are listed in the table below and their rankings points are bolded and colour-coded to highlight the match-ups.
TEAMPTS
1Adelaide1410
2Sydney/SMFC1409
3GWS1391
4Geelong1326
5West Coast1325
6Hawthorn1323
7W Bulldogs/FFC1208


Apart from how close together Adelaide and Sydney are (and they are!), the important point to note from the above is that one of the two teams ranked in bold red will play Geelong, while the two in blue will play GWS.
From that, Geelong have the harder road ahead, and as blogged last post, the finals path is a little more wide open for GWS.

To re-inforce the above, the two below charts are from Max Barrys 'Squiggle' page and show how Geelong are in the thick of it, and being pincered by the Crows and Swans...


...while GWS are streeting ahead of the Dogs and Hawks.


Wait... you need more data that GWS have the open side of the finals? OK
Check the ratings at Troy Wheatleys blog, where GWS double or more their opponents.
And those over at Matter Of Stats, where GWS are four rankings places ahead of their rivals.
And the same pattern emerges at FootyForecaster. GWS 2nd, Hawks half their rating, Dogs are one third.

So this table, listed last week that had the GWS as about 77% likely to play in the Grand Final has a basis beyond this blog.
TOP 8 - % CHANCE TO PLAY IN WEEK...
Adelaide1001004629
Geelong10010039
GWS10010077
Hawthorn1001006916
North Melbourne100
Sydney/SMFC1001005431
W Bulldogs/FFC100100317
West Coast100
WK 1WK 2WK 3WK 4


So anyway, the Semi Final tips, with the benefits of data and application of HGA and other associated sundries is...
HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
SFSydney/SMFC31v16AdelaideSCGSydney/SMFCby12pts
SFHawthorn-20v-2W Bulldogs/FFCMCGHawthornby12pts


Form indicator does lean to the Dogs in the second game (scheduled first).

Whatever - should be a great footy weekend.
As always, remember Dave Letterman's words - No wagering.

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