Wednesday, 21 September 2016

25. TWO GOALS OR TWO

Predicting winners, let alone margins, when finals roll around is a tricky proposition for maths based models and normal tipsters alike.
The carnage seen this week on the Monash Uni scoreboard is testament enough of that. Of the top 20 tipsters, only one selected both winners, and three didn't get a winner at all (not including the two who failed to tip).

So with no qualms, here is the 50% return from this week.
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Sydney/SMFCby12ptsSydney/SMFCby36ptsSydney/SMFC+14Adelaide-9
Hawthornby12ptsW Bulldogs/FFCby23ptsHawthorn-19W Bulldogs/FFC+15

Margin predictions, each of two, both set for two goal margins, ended up as out by two goals, or the opposite result by about two goals..

And all the above highlights (in combination with your regular AFL top eight as listed in the standard ladder PLUS the rankings table below) just how even the finals have been this year.
And how hard it is to get a feel for who will be the eventual premier.
RANKINGSPre:R 26
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Sydney/SMFC142415+1
2Adelaide1401-9-1
3GWS13910
4Geelong13260
5West Coast13250
6Hawthorn1304-18
7W Bulldogs/FFC122416
8Port Adelaide11820
9North Melbourne11750
10Collingwood10960
11Melbourne10220
12St Kilda10170
13Richmond9720
14Fremantle9020
15Carlton8860
16Gold Coast8560
17Essendon6930
18Brisbane Lions6290


And to look at the next week and run some predictive scenarios...
TOP 8 - % CHANCE TO PLAY IN WEEK...
Adelaide100100
Geelong10001004119
GWS10001007742
Hawthorn100100
North Melbourne100
Sydney/SMFC1001001005933
W Bulldogs/FFC100100100237
West Coast100
WK 1WK 2WK 3WK 4GF Win


The four teams are predicted to appear in the Grand Final as above, with the GWS / Bulldogs split as 77 / 23 and the Cats / Swans split as 41 / 59.

After that, the win% for the Grand Final has also been calculated as above, with GWS getting the highest chance, and most likely from a Sydney Derby Grand Final.

Which would be brilliant, because...

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