Monday, 19 December 2016

2016: THE WASH-UP

With the year winding down, its time to review what was. And give time restraints, it follows last years method - short and sharp.
The pressures of employment and family have made the toughest of foes in the fight for time and attention to analysis and blogging.

In terms of the FMI targets, the new system was employed and is used as the key measure (as it should be) but also the old system results will also be listed to show progress or regress.

Further below are charts of each clubs' change in rank week to week, as well as measures on wins and ladder finishes against the FMI preseason prediction.


But first, a look at a few other season goals set earlier this year.



TIPPING RETURN:

"...another correct tipping return over 145 (70%) should be expected, and if 150 (72%) is breached, even better."

Outcome:
Season 2016 fell two short of target, with 143 the final result, and 69.1 in percentage terms.
This remains a decent outcome given the the horror tipping run through rounds 6 to 8. Over those rounds, the tipping average fell from 74% down to 66%.

But the ship was righted with rounds 9 and 10 delivering good returns.

After that recovery all the remaining rounds were tracking above 70%, and the eventual sub-70% result can be sheeted home to the eventual Premiers. The FMI system did not tip them at all in the finals, and those misses weighed heavily.

Old System - 143. (no change)


MONASH UNI:

"Another score over 1850 is the KPI, and nudging past 1900 will be a great return."

Outcome:
Season score of 1796 is well under the KPI, but still strong enough to garner a 10th place finish vs published data.

Also encouraging was the increase again in competition, with other data-based tipsters scoring well.
Well played @TJMillar1, @MatterOfStats, @DownIsTheNewUp, @RankingSW and @FiguringFooty for all finishing in the top 10.


"Target 2016 is to again be top 10 minimum and top 5 would be ideal."

Outcome:
Tenth, so achieved... in the second last week of the season.

Old System:
1772 points (-24 pts vs new) and a 15th place finish (-5).


PERFECT ROUNDS AND MARGIN WINDOWS:

"...target is to achieve 2 perfect rounds."

Outcome:
Missed again. This year there were four rounds with 8 correct. SO close, but not close enough.

Old System:
No perfect rounds (no change).


There was no goal set for exact margins tipped, but 3 games were correctly tipped to the exact margin. The broader goal of being in the 0-12 point range was set this year though, as below.
"...a target of 29% or more of games tipped in the 0-12 point should be achievable."

Outcome:
This is the first time to have set this target, and it may be positioned a little too high. The season result is 24.6%, which is significantly under. To be reviewed.

Old System:
Only one exact was achieved (-2) and the 0-12 margin/game range was 21.2% (-3.4%).


MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR:

"The MAE is a measure of accuracy of predicted margin to actual margin. As was described to me by a regular reader and twitter correspondent (@SgtButane), a value under 30 would be a very good return."

Below, as inspired by the plusSixOne blog, the predicted margin vs actual margin for each game has been plotted. Its encouraging to see the green points (tipped correctly), and also the closeness of the grey dots to the zero axes intersect (implying that even though the system tipped incorrectly, it wasn't wildy out of whack) .

Outcome:
As before, when there are a run of bad weeks, maintaining a tight MAE is never easy. This season though, a respectable MAE of 30.5 was achieved. Better than last year and an improvement over the old system.

Old System:
31.4, so a significant improvement (+0.9)


SOME FINAL NOTES:

Thank you again readers and followers. This blog thing is literally hanging out there in cyberspace and to have hits, comments, interactions and replies make it worthwhile.
Another increase in annual readership is also something to be happy about, even if there is less content and less quality.

Thanks again to contributors to the FMI series if blogs and twitter accounts. Both those with new ideas and proposals to improve, and those along for a bit of a laugh. All these things make the workaday week just a bit better. The @FMI_CL and @FMI_TL are well received (so you say), and I cant believe how the @FridayNotFooty following has developed.

A final note of thanks to those I have met IRL this year - some before and some new folk as well. Looking forward to doing it all again next year, smarter, and even more accurate.



ADELAIDE 

5th, 16 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 8th        (Range: 4 - 10)
Wins:         Expected: 12 - 17
Summary:  Played to the top range of their expected level, good season given resources lost. Set for 2017.




PORT ADELAIDE 

10th, 10 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 7th        (Range: 3 - 9)
Wins:         Expected: 12 - 17
Summary:  Disappointing start set the tone for the season. A wasted effort and little progress.




FREMANTLE

16th, 4 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 9th        (Range: 5 - 10)
Wins:         Expected: 11 - 16
Summary:  Expected not to make the 8, but went down in a flaming heap, bordering on tanking. Terrible.




WEST COAST 

6th, 16 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 2nd        (Range: 1 - 3)
Wins:         Expected: 16 - 20
Summary:  6th place decent given the closeness of the top 7, but overall a nett negative year.




BRISBANE LIONS 

17th, 3 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 14th        (Range: 13 - 16)
Wins:         Expected: 3 - 7
Summary:  Wasted season for the northern-most club. Ship is being righted with new staff and expectatons.




GOLD COAST 

15th, 6 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 15th        (Range: 13 - 17)
Wins:         Expected: 2 - 6
Summary:  Ebbing and flowing and not really going anywhere. Finished as expected and should be better.




GWS 

4th, 16 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 12th        (Range: 11 - 13)
Wins:         Expected: 7 - 11
Summary:  Early season set the tone and lined them up for a 1st finals tilt. Top season and look out 2017.




SYDNEY/SMFC 

1st, 17 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 3rd        (Range: 2 - 7)
Wins:         Expected: 14 - 18
Summary:  Finished around expectations and faltered in the big one. Expecting similar next season.




W BULLDOGS/FFC 

7th, 15 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 5th        (Range: 3 - 8)
Wins:         Expected: 13 - 17
Summary:  Finished the H&A bang on to expectation, but look at those last 4 weeks - turned it ON.




ST KILDA 

9th, 12 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 13th        (Range: 12 - 16)
Wins:         Expected: 4 - 8
Summary:  Great effort, the top 8 was lock, so 9th is brilliant. Under the radar all year, but not any more.




RICHMOND 

13th, 8 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 4th        (Range: 3 - 8)
Wins:         Expected: 13 - 17
Summary:  Huge disappointment, second only to Fremantle, and only just. Time for a re-build.




NORTH MELBOURNE 

8th, 12 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 6th        (Range: 3 - 8)
Wins:         Expected: 12 - 17
Summary:  Season went to predictions - won early against the minnows, & struggled later when it got hard.




MELBOURNE 

11th, 10 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 16th        (Range: 13 - 17)
Wins:         Expected: 3 - 6
Summary:  Last of the P.Roos era and their best so far. Should be set for a better 2017 with lots of talent.




HAWTHORN 

3rd, 17 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 1st        (Range: 1 - 2)
Wins:         Expected: 18 - 21
Summary:  The best has now come back to the field. 3rd worst season losing 200pts, ranked 6th. Era ends?




GEELONG 

2nd, 17 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 10th        (Range: 8 - 11)
Wins:         Expected: 10 - 14
Summary:  That early season drive (from Dangerfield) pushed them back into contention before plateauing.




ESSENDON 

18th, 3 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 18th        (Range: 16 - 18)
Wins:         Expected: 1 - 4
Summary:  A year of going backwards in the rankings, but games into kids will send them back up in 2017.




COLLINGWOOD 

12th, 9 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 11th        (Range: 9 - 12)
Wins:         Expected: 9 - 13
Summary:  Another year of treading water at Olympic Park. One day they will rise, but not without change.




CARLTON 

14th, 7 wins.

Ladder:      Expected: 17th        (Range: 15 - 18)
Wins:         Expected: 2 - 5
Summary:  The new coach and direction has worked wonders. Getting further than bottom 6 will be harder.



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