Tuesday, 7 February 2017

NWL: 2- SUMMER OF LOVE

How good was week 1 of the AFLW season?
Footy was hard and tough, though lopsided in scoring. Certainly not in effort.

Huge crowds that were mostly a surprise.
Decent numbers were expected, but the total of 50,000 looks to have surprised most.
Maintaining that interest will be the test for the League over the next few weeks - fully expecting a wash-off of some fans after what was the 'event' on Friday, and there is a return to footy fans watching the game, and not merely 'attending'.

And huge kudos to Gillon McLaughlin for fronting fans who were locked out of Friday's match. Front foot defence is the best.
And as always, the rule is... Arrive Early!

Overall, a massive weekend of positive vibes, happy fans and good problems to have.


And while Eddie was away at 'Bloke-Fest 2017' copping another cheque, another President was supporting his clubs' AFLW team in what ever way he could.



What a contrast! And what a poor choice - look at the turnout to BlokeFest.



Week 1 Wash-up.

Tipping results as per here (noting edit to Game 1 as the venue change was missed in original post).

PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Carltonby1ptsCarltonby35ptsCarlton+18Collingwood-19
Adelaideby7ptsAdelaideby36ptsAdelaide+15GWS-16
W Bulldogs/FFCby7ptsW Bulldogs/FFCby32ptsW Bulldogs/FFC+13Fremantle-13
Melbourneby7ptsBrisbane Lionsby15ptsMelbourne-12Brisbane Lions+11


(Subjectively modified rankings)

PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Collingwoodby16ptsCarltonby35ptsCarlton+26Collingwood-27
Adelaideby10ptsAdelaideby36ptsAdelaide+13GWS-14
W Bulldogs/FFCby12ptsW Bulldogs/FFCby32ptsW Bulldogs/FFC+10Fremantle-11
Melbourneby6ptsBrisbane Lionsby15ptsMelbourne-11Brisbane Lions+10

Three out of 4 tips for the no-modifications tipping model, and only 2 from 4 for the pre-weighted model, which completely missed estimations on the Collingwood and Carlton game


Making the rankings all look like this after 1 game:

FMI RANKINGSsubFMI RANKINGS
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRKTEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Carlton101818-1W Bulldogs/FFC109511+1
2Adelaide101515-2Collingwood1070-26-1
3W Bulldogs/FFC101313-3Fremantle1028-11-
4Brisbane Lions101111-4Brisbane Lions102611-
5Melbourne989-11-5Melbourne988-10-
6Fremantle987-13-6Carlton96826-
7GWS985-15-7Adelaide93714-
8Collingwood982-18-8GWS888-14-

Early days for genuinely knowing where teams sit in this competition.


Week 2 Tips

All this weeks tips (barring any venue changes), as of 6 Feb:
[EDITED: AFL have changed a venue, no nett change to the tips though]

HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
RND 2
W Bulldogs/FFC0v0AdelaideWhitW Bulldogs/FFCby7pts
Carlton0v0GWSPrinCarltonby11pts
Collingwood0v0MelbournePrinMelbourneby1pts
Fremantle0v0Brisbane LionsFremFremantleby5pts



HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
RND 2
W Bulldogs/FFC0v0AdelaideWhitW Bulldogs/FFCby23pts
Carlton0v0GWSPrinCarltonby15pts
Collingwood0v0MelbournePrinCollingwoodby9pts
Fremantle0v0Brisbane LionsFremFremantleby8pts

Again, the weighting giving the Magpies a start in the pre-weighted number, and not in the non-modified data.

Bring on more footy, good weather and happy fans... its the summer of footy love 2017.

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