Tuesday, 28 February 2017

NWL: 5- DOOR AJAR

Four rounds in the book and there is a clear distinction between teams now. A strong pair at the top of the table will play this coming weekend to all but determine home ground advantage for the final.
This is also the open door moment for Melbourne. A loss to either Adelaide or Brisbane and a win to the Demons prys open the door to the final just that little more.

Melbourne also have the two bottom teams in GWS and Fremantle to come in the next three weeks. Their other opponent - Adelaide.

Adelaide's worst scenario is to lose to Brisbane and Melbourne at 'home'. Which is possible since 'home' is both Norwood Oval, Adelaide and Marrara in Darwin. Both venues have not seen the Crows in a competitive match yet. 

The Melbourne scenario only lives with the Lions winning on Saturday night.

The other scenario with a slimmer chance of eventuating is that Carlton make the top 2. This needs Brisbane to lose on Saturday, and then Carlton would need to defeat Brisbane in the last round. And in between, the Blues need to defeat the Dockers, while the Bulldogs would need to defeat Brisbane away.

None of these are impossible, and all make for an interesting last three rounds.


And now that there is enough data to begin splitting these new teams, a new page has been added to the FMI blog - the NWL Swarms. These are, like for the Men's competition, calculated expected percentage chances of finishing in a certain position, calculated weekly.



Week 4 Wash-up:

Clearly the home ground advantage is wrong for this season. Will need to be adjusted for 2018.

PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Carltonby4ptsMelbourneby6ptsMelbourne+7Carlton-5
Brisbane Lionsby13ptsBrisbane Lionsby34ptsBrisbane Lions+14GWS-17
W Bulldogs/FFCby3ptsCollingwoodby13ptsW Bulldogs/FFC-13Collingwood+6
Fremantleby1ptsAdelaideby23ptsFremantle-17Adelaide+20

One correct! Urggh.


Current rankings:

RANKINGSPre:R 5
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Adelaide105720+1
2Brisbane Lions103715+1
3Carlton1034-4-2
4Melbourne10138-
5W Bulldogs/FFC975-13-
6Collingwood9747+1
7Fremantle958-16-1
8GWS951-16-

Tips For Week 5:

Either the HGA is wrong, or tipping GWS by a point is inspired tipping. Yep that covers both scenarios nicely. Scaped the goat.

HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
RND 5
GWS0v0MelbourneBlacGWSby1pts
Carlton0v0W Bulldogs/FFCPrinCarltonby7pts
Fremantle0v0CollingwoodRushFremantleby6pts
Adelaide0v0Brisbane LionsNorwAdelaideby9pts
By the above, the Carlton scenario is on, and the door nudges closed a tiny bit for Melbourne.
What an interesting weekend of footy.

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