Wednesday, 22 March 2017

2017 UNPREDICTIONS: EXPECTED FINISH

Twice more unto the breach, dear reader, twice more.

Now in its 6th big season, its your FMI's trusted and ever present of the season ahead.
And this year its a double shot of posts.
This post is on the expected ladder finishing positions generated via simulations of seasons. And an alternative post looking at expected wins in a season, with both blog posts generated by the same simulations.

Basis:
Under the FMI approach, the ratings of each team are used to calculate ranges of possible match results, adjust ratings after each and event, and continue iterations for the whole season, then repeat the process again and again.

The rankings used are as per the end of the 2017 season, and are listed below. The league fixture also has an impact, and the handicapping of it is examined as per this post.

A further note:There has been a small style change to the blog this year as below. Nothing earth-shattering but just a small adjustment to make the blog present better.



LADDER POSITION

With a run of 10,00 simulations of season 2017, making team adjustments round by round the below aggregate data of ladder finishing positions makes for interesting reading.
Sydney gets returned as the most likely team to top the ladder, and also draws twice as many finishes there as their nearest rivals.
Other pundit's preference for minor premier, GWS, are relegated to second under the FMI system.

EXPECTED FINISH123456789101112131415161718
1Sydney/SMFC3522151185311
2GWS1616161514107421
3Adelaide17171513111085311
4Geelong1316151412118531
5W Bulldogs/FFC9111516141396421
6West Coast81213131413108531
7Hawthorn2468101214141210521
8Port Adelaide12371116191913621
9Collingwood12469131618169421
10North Melbourne1124691317171484211
11St Kilda124916241912732
12Melbourne137132224148421
13Richmond13917211814961
14Gold Coast131015201917113
15Fremantle12714202320112
16Essendon148121823259
17Carlton12481114212912
18Brisbane Lions1361773


Brisbane are the lead pipe cinch for last, and overwhelmingly so.
Of particular note too is the incredibly middling expectations around North Melbourne. Anything from 2nd to 16th is possible, and an outcome between 7th and 13th is more probable.
What a spread!
.. and yes, technically anything from 1st to 18th is, but just go with the non-thought process here, please.


Worth noting also, the above data is as per the SWARMS page running on the FMI blog and updated weekly. Yes weekly.
Track your teams performance as they progress through the season. And yes the current swarms page retains the 2016 data, until after round 1!


Aggregating the above into finishing windows of importance creates the below table.
EXPECTED FINISHTop 2Top 4Top 8Last 4
1Sydney/SMFC568399
2GWS326397
3Adelaide336195
4Geelong295996
5W Bulldogs/FFC215194
6West Coast194691
7Hawthorn62070
8Port Adelaide1659
9Collingwood1751
10North Melbourne14352
11St Kilda75
12Melbourne48
13Richmond30
14Gold Coast50
15Fremantle56
16Essendon75
17Carlton75
18Brisbane Lions99



TEAM CHARTS

Below are charts for each team that show the distribution of possible finishing positions, grouped 2 per chart (and regionally where appropriate).


Both Sydney teams are highly fancied to finish in the top 8. Sydney the prime pick for top spot (with that data point for Sydney on top off the chart at 35%). GWS also a strong top 4 show.


Over in the West, the prediction is for a year of consolidation for Fremantle. Unless they were foxing in 2016. West Coast to be a contributor to the finals, but will be lucky to earn a home final.


Mixed fortunes for both Adelaide teams. The Crows could challenge for a top 4 spot - and even top 2. Port Adelaide are on the cusp of a finals return with strong numbers inside the 8.


As before, Brisbane are near certainties for last (with an off the scale data point at 18th of 73%). Preseason form though shows this may be too high a number - oh wait, its only the preseason games. Suns are again expected to not do well, despite a handy fixture. 


Melbourne last season made a case for finals action in the near future and this year the FMI system expects marginal improvement. The reigning premiers, who won from 7th, are again n the mix and a mid-ships in the top 8 mix. 


The two recent dominant finals teams have two different expectations for 2017. At Geelong, there is good reason to expect to see them in September again. For Hawthorn, the data considers them likely t scrape in or miss the 8 (at 58% chance to finish 7th or lower).


For those of the sash inclined, there is an expectation of another difficult season ahead. The data below does not account for the influx of returnees from WADA convictions at Essendon. There is also no weight given to the imports at Richmond that have show well in "the March games that don't nett 4 premiership points".


The vertical stripes set will also be battling for a finals spot. Interesting is that Collingwood have a 51% aggregate of the finals by the FMI method, and this is not 'easy draw' related (as by this system, that have a moderate schedule). North will do well to achieve anywhere approaching single figures on this curve's x-axis.

After a consolidating year for Carlton, it is surprising to see high numbers for a 17th place finish. Only a 25% chance to equal or better their 2016 season. St Kilda were on the verge of finals in 2016, but are less likely this year, and the 8th hardest fixture may be the culprit. 


As before, the sister post to this one on 'expected number of wins' might be worth your time too.
Good luck to all teams and tipsters in 2017.

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