Tuesday, 7 March 2017

NWL: 6- DOCKERS

Reflective analysis

Tipping is well below normal expectation (of around 70% correct), and this is to be expected with new teams and conditions.
Further the table below is a chart of margin expected vs actually achieved. The very flat profile below indicates there is not enough boldness of prediction in the FMI NWL system.
Something to be amended in time for the 2018 edition.

Much tweaking to be done, but as per the first NWL post, with short seasons, long off seasons and unknown player retention and development, there may not be a satisfactory model-based tipping mechanism for a few years yet.




Also, see the updated NWL Swarms form expected % finishing position chances.



Week 5 Wash-up:

GWS win a close one in the wet and leave Fremantle as the only side win-less so far.
It would be good for the footy for the Dockers to get up in the next rounds. The league needs all sides to record a win.
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
GWSby1ptsGWSby5ptsGWS+1Melbourne-2
Carltonby7ptsCarltonby6ptsCarlton-1W Bulldogs/FFC0
Fremantleby6ptsCollingwoodby1ptsFremantle-13Collingwood+2
Adelaideby9ptsBrisbane Lionsby3ptsAdelaide-6Brisbane Lions+13


Tipping is still a bit hit and miss, and in some respects it is all but pointless. But after coming this far, its worth the extra few steps.

Current rankings after the 5th round of footy, and Brisbane and Adelaide are effectively the same.
Fremantle are furthest away from par ranking of 1000, and languish at the foot of the table.
RANKINGSPre:R 6
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Adelaide1051-5-
2Brisbane Lions105014-
3Carlton10340-
4Melbourne1011-2-
5Collingwood9773+1
6W Bulldogs/FFC9750-1
7GWS9522+1
8Fremantle946-12-1


Tips for Week 6:

Fremantle's last home game, on the big stage of Subiaco, is their best chance of scoring a win. And if they do, it shuts the door on the Carlton tilt, so its a win win really.

The other finalist contender, Melbourne, is away at Adelaide who will be stung by last weeks loss. The Dees need to win to keep the final tilt alive. So too the Crows.
Match of the week.
HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
RND 6
Fremantle-26v14CarltonSubiCarltonby9pts
Brisbane Lions17v-7W Bulldogs/FFCSoutBrisbane Lionsby7pts
Adelaide36v9MelbourneMarrAdelaideby6pts
Collingwood-14v-26GWSOlymCollingwoodby2pts

Enjoy your footy.

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