Wednesday, 12 April 2017

4. BACK HERE...AGAIN

It has got to stop.

Everyone has had enough. These out and out racists need weeding out of footy with distinct action that sees them removed permanently.

A look at this simple search request of this blog shows that since 2013 there has been enough incidences already to warrant action.

This weeks bollocks has to be the last straw.
It has to be the last straw.

To paraphrase the picture at right...
I can't believe we have to keep addressing racism at the footy.



The Wash-Up:

Another weekend of upsets and odd results. Collingwood away, Fremantle at home and Gold Coast by plenty.
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Sydney/SMFCby42pts80Collingwoodby1Sydney/SMFC-29Collingwood+18
GWSby24pts32GWSby42North Melbourne-19GWS+11
West Coastby21pts34Richmondby11Richmond+18West Coast-13
Geelongby28pts71Geelongby29Geelong+1Melbourne-1
Adelaideby22pts34Adelaideby17Port Adelaide+19Adelaide-2
W Bulldogs/FFCby34pts25Fremantleby16Fremantle+20W Bulldogs/FFC-20
St Kildaby53pts85St Kildaby31St Kilda-8Brisbane Lions+7
Carltonby7pts55Carltonby15Carlton+3Essendon-4
Hawthornby30pts28Gold Coastby86Gold Coast+31Hawthorn-49


The loss to Gold Coast was certainly a wake-up call to all that Hawthorn have lost their allure as an indomitable force. To all of you out there that don't run ELO ratings for sure. With rating teams, like the FMI system (and others out there), changes in performance can be trackable even if the wins keep getting registered.

Josh over at the Footy Gospel site published earlier this week his take on the decline of the Hawks, including publishing a table of all the clubs' results since round 20, 2016, That table has the Hawks second last and that:
"...Hawthorn have lost seven of their last nine games. Their two triumphs in that time have been a one point win over Collingwood and a defeat of North Melbourne, the only team with a worse record over that stretch." 
The FMI ELO system shows the same decline over that period, and more pronounced over recent games. Further Josh notes Hawthorn won 9 games in a row leading up to round 20. The FMI system shows a plateau in their rankings points over that period. Wins were wins, but were either just as the system expected, or under expectation.

Looking further back, the decline has been on since Round 1 of 2016. From the Grand Final win to the Semi Final loss to the eventual Premiers of 2017, they lost just over 200 rankings points, or about 15% of their value.
This season, in just three games, they have wiped off a further 9%.




To place them now on the rankings table, the once mighty Hawthorn now lie in 8th spot, and trending down.
RANKINGSPre:R 4
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Adelaide1402-1-
2GWS136012-
3Sydney/SMFC1315-28-
4West Coast1279-12-
5Geelong12791+1
6W Bulldogs/FFC1264-19-1
7Port Adelaide122119+1
8Hawthorn1160-49-1
9North Melbourne1110-18-
10Collingwood108918-
11Melbourne1013-1-
12Richmond99219+1
13St Kilda990-7-1
14Fremantle86120-
15Carlton8443-
16Gold Coast84232-
17Essendon772-3-
18Brisbane Lions6257-

Happy days though for Port Adelaide, despite the above noted crowd issues, as they continue to rise. So too further down the table are Richmond. Gold Coast also step up to challenge Carlton as well.


To look further at the last three rounds and rankings changes, the big (and not so big) movers for season 2017 are charted below.
This also puts into perspective the Hawks plight.



Also worth noting is the rise of Essendon who are now experiencing the return of 10 players from WADA suspension. Its quite a performance boost.


The Round Ahead.

All this weeks tips - and don't forget we have Thursday night footy, as well as a League first Good Friday football.
Get your tips in!

HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
R 4
West CoastvSydney/SMFCSubiWest Coastby9pts57
North MelbournevW Bulldogs/FFCDockW Bulldogs/FFCby17pts37
MelbournevFremantleMCGMelbourneby29pts72
GWSvPort AdelaideManuGWSby17pts63
CarltonvGold CoastDockCarltonby13pts60
AdelaidevEssendonAdelAdelaideby68pts91
CollingwoodvSt KildaDockCollingwoodby11pts58
Brisbane LionsvRichmondGabbRichmondby26pts30
HawthornvGeelongMCGGeelongby14pts39

Nine games spread over five days, which seems like a good thing but I bet there are some out there wondering why the regular footy Saturday/Sunday are not so busy.

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