Thursday, 27 April 2017

6. SUB KPI

A week of limited internet access due to a copper cable being cut when someone in the area moved to the NBN (thanks heaps Telstra for your sub-KPI performance) means this weeks blog is light on content.
So no different to most posts, then (blog KPI met).


The Wash-Up:

More missing targets on tips this week. Almost as bad as Collingwood's shooting for goal accuracy.
Six from 9 continues a poor start for this elo-based tipster, as well as most others.

A quick look around the grounds says:
   - FMI 29 correct from the first 5 rounds
   - 28 for the Squiggle
   - 28 for The Arc
   - 29 for Footy Forecaster

For this blog, 64% is well under minimum KPI. Which makes it an interesting season.

PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
Port Adelaideby54pts86Port Adelaideby90Port Adelaide+20Carlton-27
W Bulldogs/FFCby81pts95W Bulldogs/FFCby32W Bulldogs/FFC-17Brisbane Lions+15
Adelaideby44pts19Adelaideby67Gold Coast-10Adelaide+11
GWSby9pts43GWSby42Sydney/SMFC-29GWS+21
North Melbourneby13pts40Fremantleby5Fremantle+11North Melbourne-14
Geelongby32pts26Geelongby38St Kilda-3Geelong+14
West Coastby7pts45Hawthornby51Hawthorn+19West Coast-22
Richmondby2pts51Richmondby13Richmond+17Melbourne-10
Collingwoodby31pts27Essendonby18Essendon+31Collingwood-19


A key reason why so many elo tipsters would be failing would be the higher ranking of Hawthorn and Sydney giving them expected wins, and then not reacting fast enough when they under-perform.
So too with a team on the rise, like Richmond. Adjusting a lower ranked team that exceeds expectations is also a fundamental challenge for elo-model tipsters.


West Coast and Sydney change places in the table below. Season opening table-topper Sydney now 5th, and falling every week.
Hawthorn nudge back into the best 8 teams, for now.
RANKINGSPre:R 6
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Adelaide140811
2GWS139522
3Geelong131915
4West Coast1265-22+1
5Sydney/SMFC1263-28-1
6W Bulldogs/FFC1244-16
7Port Adelaide123521
8Hawthorn112720+1
9North Melbourne1101-13-1
10Collingwood1061-18
11Richmond103118
12St Kilda998-2+1
13Melbourne991-9-1
14Fremantle88411
15Gold Coast852-9
16Essendon82131+1
17Carlton796-26-1
18Brisbane Lions63116

Good to see Essendon also heading out of the cellar with those experienced heads back.



The Round Ahead:

Sydney and North Melbourne should surely break their ducks this week. And if they don't then it really will be a hard winter ahead.

HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
R 6
GWS31v-9W Bulldogs/FFCManuGWSby16pts62
Hawthorn-55v5St KildaYorkHawthornby27pts70
Carlton-29v-49Sydney/SMFCMCGSydney/SMFCby37pts23
Brisbane Lions1v31Port AdelaideGabbPort Adelaideby51pts15
North Melbourne-11v8Gold CoastDockNorth Melbourneby39pts78
West Coast-18v8FremantleSubiWest Coastby40pts79
Essendon39v-9MelbourneDockMelbourneby18pts36
Geelong18v-11CollingwoodMCGGeelongby28pts71
Adelaide11v36RichmondAdelAdelaideby53pts85


Otherwise all games should flow with the theory and go as tipped, with the one form-indicator discrepancy being Fremantle to win the 'darby' derby.
And the Saints could, but if Hawthorn has their mojo back, then look out.

No comments:

Post a Comment