Thursday, 4 May 2017

7. REPORT CARD 1

Later in this post, the wrap-up of the Round 6 tips, and the Round 7 tips... scroll down if that's youe thing.


But before that, Rounds 1 through to 5 encompass effectively the first quarter of the season. With the late finish of round 5 due to Anzac Day commitments, the analysis of performance for the quarter was held over until this post.

Using rankings point changes instead of the more common wins/losses data, improvements can be tracked that may not be otherwise clear.

Below, the chart shows changes to rankings over the first five rounds,

Rather simple to understand is the significant boost to Essendon from their returning players. Three wins and two losses they may be, but the improvement has been the best from all teams - coming off a small base admittedly.

Also, those power teams that have struggled this year are also clearly the biggest losers. The magnitude of their decline is massive though.
Carlton's season so far has gone backwards, which is not what you want when developing a new set of players and selling hope to your supporters.

On the fringes of the bigger shifts are West Coast and North Melbourne down slightly. No surprises for North, but a worry for the Eagles. These two plus the Haws and Swans need to catch a tram.
Also worrying for the whole competition is the small upward shifts for Adelaide, Geelong  and GWS. If these three better teams get better and better... well then. Its a problem for the chasing pack.



All the other teams are basically just going along as expected.


The Wash-up:

Six from nine is the mantra for season 2017. There will always be an outsider or three bobbing up to nick a win here and there.

PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
GWSby16pts62GWSby2GWS-5W Bulldogs/FFC+4
Hawthornby27pts70St Kildaby75Hawthorn-41St Kilda+28
Sydney/SMFCby37pts23Carltonby19Carlton+20Sydney/SMFC-37
Port Adelaideby51pts15Port Adelaideby83Brisbane Lions-13Port Adelaide+23
North Melbourneby39pts78North Melbourneby13North Melbourne-17Gold Coast+11
West Coastby40pts79West Coastby41West Coast0Fremantle-1
Melbourneby18pts36Melbourneby38Essendon-8Melbourne+7
Geelongby28pts71Collingwoodby29Geelong-20Collingwood+19
Adelaideby53pts85Adelaideby76Adelaide+14Richmond-10


Where did Carlton and Collingwood come from?
Well OK in one instance it was a win over the smouldering Swans wreckage


RANKINGSPre:R 7
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Adelaide142315
2GWS1391-4
3Geelong1300-19
4West Coast12650
5Port Adelaide125924+2
6W Bulldogs/FFC12484
7Sydney/SMFC1227-36-2
8Hawthorn1087-41
9North Melbourne1085-16
10Collingwood108120
11St Kilda102628+1
12Richmond1022-9-1
13Melbourne9997
14Fremantle8840
15Gold Coast86312
16Carlton81721+1
17Essendon814-7-1
18Brisbane Lions619-12

Sadly Brisbane are now adrift at the foot of the table, almost 200 points clear
But quite an awesome start by Port Adelaide. Now 5th ranked. They were in the FMI top 8 in the season predictions blog, while other commentators did not have them as well regarded.

The Week Ahead:

Sydney are due, yeah? And they couldn't ask for a better opponent.
That said, Brisbane are not an easy win by any stretch.

HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
R 7
St Kilda14v21GWSDockGWSby26pts30
North Melbourne-22v10AdelaideBellAdelaideby36pts24
Collingwood5v-12CarltonMCGCollingwoodby28pts71
Port Adelaide29v-13West CoastAdelPort Adelaideby13pts59
Gold Coast27v11GeelongCarrGeelongby34pts25
W Bulldogs/FFC-18v24RichmondDockW Bulldogs/FFCby24pts68
Sydney/SMFC-58v1Brisbane LionsSCGSydney/SMFCby77pts94
Melbourne-7v-61HawthornMCGHawthornby10pts43
Fremantle22v19EssendonSubiFremantleby20pts66


So be careful using these - Brisbane over Sydney and Melbourne over Hawthorn are real possibilities.
Such is tipping via the not-nearly-flexible-enough model tipping systems.

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