Wednesday, 10 May 2017

8. WET SAILS

Wiser counsel has advised that in tipping football, no two seasons are the same, and therefore you can't benchmark any season against another.
Which is a good thing... but lets have a crack at the context-ing this season against the five other seasons blogged anyway.

Currently, the correct tip rate is around 61%,
All previous seasons have run to about 71-74% through May.
The current MAE (average distance between margin tipped and actual) is 33.3 points.
Past levels were typically 30 to 31 points.

What we are seeing is a season that is more competitive than in the past five seasons. The 10% drop in prediction relates to an extra game a week that goes against predictions. And in ELO predictors like this one, more often than not the tip is for the stronger team. So effectively, we have an extra upset each round.

Makes footy tipping, football, ...and life, just that little more interesting.


The Weekend Wrap:

The other opart of the wise counsel above was to not measure your tips against each season but against other tipsters in the same season. In that context, things are going swimmingly.
PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
GWSby26pts30St Kildaby23St Kilda+32GWS-18
Adelaideby36pts24North Melbourneby59North Melbourne+24Adelaide-25
Collingwoodby28pts71Carltonby23Collingwood-18Carlton+18
Port Adelaideby13pts59West Coastby10Port Adelaide-9West Coast+7
Geelongby34pts25Gold Coastby25Gold Coast+26Geelong-21
W Bulldogs/FFCby24pts68W Bulldogs/FFCby5W Bulldogs/FFC-10Richmond+10
Sydney/SMFCby77pts94Sydney/SMFCby54Sydney/SMFC-29Brisbane Lions+7
Hawthornby10pts43Hawthornby3Melbourne+1Hawthorn-26
Fremantleby20pts66Fremantleby37Fremantle+10Essendon-7


This weeks tips came home with a wet sail after leading out strongly for a 0-5 return. Thankfully it rounded out as 4 from 9 and a season total of 39.
FootyForecaster is also on 39, so the current output is not a bad thing.


RANKINGSPre:R 8
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Adelaide1398-25
2GWS1373-17
3Geelong1279-21
4West Coast12738
5Port Adelaide1251-8
6W Bulldogs/FFC1238-10
7Sydney/SMFC1198-29
8North Melbourne110925+1
9Collingwood1063-18+1
10Hawthorn1061-26-2
11St Kilda105832
12Richmond103211
13Melbourne10012
14Fremantle89511
15Gold Coast89027
16Carlton83619
17Essendon807-6
18Brisbane Lions6267

In a Robey-esque fashion. Hawthorn win yet drop 2 places, while Collingwood lose and leap over Hawthorn.
This is because of a few factors. Firstly the Hawks won, but only snuck in against Melbourne, and were certainly under the expectation the system tagged them at. Therefore a penalty is applied.

Secondly, with the Hawks having such a sustained bad run in 2017, there is a high negativity carry-over from previous rounds that affected their ratings. This needs to be addressed and reduced by the Hawks playing to a consistent performance level.


PS come back Robey - we need diversity and different thinking in footy-metrics.


The Round Ahead:

We get to play football for premiership points in an international location for the first time in the history of VFL / AFL football.
The Suns play, at home, against the Power, in Shanghai, in a game organised by the Power, for the Powers' fun and or profit.
And I hope you can make sense of the logic in this game.

Yes, there was a few games played in Wellington, New Zealand for premiership points, but its important that us Aussies side with the Kazakhs and declare that NZ is not a country, but a state of Australia.


But in all seriousness lets share our game with the world. Even if there is minimal knowledge of the game now, each small step is a worthwhile.
We should consider the saying attributed to Laozi:
千里之行,始於足下
The journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step.
This is our first step beyond Australasia.
Lets take it.
Because there is a big wide world out there, and 0.1% of it would be an awesome number of fans that would share our love of the best game in the world.

To the tips.
HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
R 8
West Coast-21v-33W Bulldogs/FFCSubiWest Coastby17pts63
Hawthorn-49v1Brisbane LionsYorkHawthornby59pts88
St Kilda34v-4CarltonDockSt Kildaby24pts68
GWS6v-13CollingwoodSydSGWSby46pts82
Essendon18v0GeelongMCGGeelongby50pts16
Adelaide-2v-6MelbourneAdelAdelaideby55pts86
Richmond20v17FremantleMCGRichmondby28pts71
Gold Coast24v15Port AdelaideJianPort Adelaideby38pts22
North Melbourne0v-58Sydney/SMFCDockNorth Melbourneby4pts53


St Kilda are in red hot form (+34) but Carlton have shown that you can't tell which Carlton will turn up. This could be interesting at the Docklands.

Gold Coast have a better form indicator than Port Adelaide, and the new venue means ... who knows what effect it will have.

Sydney on the road and North Melbourne after defeating Adelaide. Hopefully for North fans Norf doesn't show up.

And speaking of games in new countries, we have the nonsense of the Country Game in the city.
Either end the charade, or have Geelong host it - a genuine regional city with agri-business as one of its key industries.

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