Thursday, 18 May 2017

9. FIXTURING AND FIDGETING


Late to issue these - have been working on something a tad LARGE for the blog.
Its a big project and will take a few more weeks, but it is underway.

As to the news of the week, which is mostly about fidgeting at AFL HQ... fidgeting with a system without due thought, and fidgeting around social leadership issues without being leaders.


1. THE FIX IS IN

The whole 17-5 schedule thing has bubbled up again, but this time disguised as 18-4. Purely to give those 2 team states a chance to squeeze more cash out of their fans with that second derby.
Personally, 17-5 or 18-4 as a concept has more holes in it than your kitchen colander, but the time to adequately identify every hole and tear down this most gratuitous money-generating fixture shuffle just doesn't exist.

The mere fact we now have 18-4 on the table highlights the drive for the dollar over the initial concept of 'fairness', where each team was to play each other once before the last 5 'pool games'.
And it also highlights how the idea floated was never properly thought through by AFL HQ.
Shifting to a second derby nails the HQ's colours to the mast - its a clutch at straws without proper forethought. Just like the poorly implemented 3rd man up rule is.


2. MEDIA MATTERS

Josh over at the FootyGospel nails the problems with the footy media so comprehensively that there is no need to add more.
Click the link and read it and then share it everywhere.
Those of us in the twenty first century can no longer abide by football media equating people to gorilla's, or drowning broadcasters in icy cold water, or any of the litany of sexist, racist and homophobic stuff that they have delivered over the last 3 years or so, and sadly continue to deliver.

These guys... yep they are all blokes... need to be unemployable. And good ordinary football-media consumers need to not only stop watching, listening and reading, but also make your objections know.

Start by reading Josh's piece, and then send it to AFL HQ. They have done nothing at all about the recent Marc Murphy affair and hope it will all blow away.

Look again at Josh's piece. Remind yourself about how many 'errors of judgement' have been made recently.

Look again at Josh's piece and think of your mum, wife, daughter, sister that has to cop being compared to Shrek, or have their private life become the subject of rumour and 'banter'.

Look again at Josh's piece and think of your mates or work colleagues that are intelligent people with families and kids, yet have to cop mocking and ridicule about their different ancestry.

Look again at Josh's piece and think of the legacy your generation is leaving to the next.

Think again, and act for change.


The Wash Up

Another weekend where the unexpected trips up the machine-tipping systems. There must be problems at Adelaide and Geelong. Richmond tried again to play one decent quarter of footy to pinch a game, and the less said about North/Norf the better.

PREDICTED RESULTACTUAL RESULTRATINGS ADJUSTMENTS
West Coastby17pts63West Coastby8West Coast-5W Bulldogs/FFC+2
Hawthornby59pts88Hawthornby38Hawthorn-25Brisbane Lions+8
St Kildaby24pts68St Kildaby19St Kilda-2Carlton+9
GWSby46pts82GWSby3GWS-16Collingwood+12
Geelongby50pts16Essendonby23Essendon+26Geelong-32
Adelaideby55pts86Melbourneby41Adelaide-31Melbourne+25
Richmondby28pts71Fremantleby2Richmond-11Fremantle+16
Port Adelaideby38pts22Port Adelaideby72Gold Coast-13Port Adelaide+19
North Melbourneby4pts53Sydney/SMFCby42North Melbourne-17Sydney/SMFC+15

Five from the nine seems about right for all other ELO type tipsters.
And with such difficult tipping conditions, you could consider the league to be evenly balanced. Yet here we are talking 17-5.



Some changes in the rankings, with a few shuffling in a crowded 8th to 13th best ranked band. And the ongoing rise of Port Adelaide.

RANKINGSPre:R 9
TEAMPTSΔPTSΔRK
1Adelaide1368-30
2GWS1358-16
3Port Adelaide127119+2
4West Coast1268-5
5Geelong1247-32-2
6W Bulldogs/FFC12402
7Sydney/SMFC121416
8North Melbourne1093-17
9Collingwood107613
10St Kilda1057-1+1
11Hawthorn1036-25-1
12Melbourne102726+1
13Richmond1021-11-1
14Fremantle91217
15Gold Coast877-12
16Carlton8459
17Essendon83427
18Brisbane Lions6348


The Weekend Ahead

Quite a few tough ones in the offing this week. The model continues to shape down both Sydney and Hawthorn, though the predictions on those teams also differ. Sydney get a narrow nod over the best form team, St Kilda.
And while the Hawks have hit a win or three, Collingwood get the tip in this match.
So, there is that.

Both of those games should be treated with caution.

HOMEAWAYVENUEPREDICTED RESULT
R 9
Geelong-28v-23W Bulldogs/FFCKardGeelongby14pts61
St Kilda28v-39Sydney/SMFCDockSydney/SMFCby4pts47
GWS-8v4RichmondSydSGWSby48pts83
Brisbane Lions10v-14AdelaideGabbAdelaideby65pts10
Collingwood-2v-36HawthornMCGCollingwoodby5pts53
Essendon22v-23West CoastDockWest Coastby33pts25
Melbourne13v-11North MelbourneMCGNorth Melbourneby7pts44
Fremantle19v11CarltonSubiFremantleby20pts65

It will also be interesting to see if Essendon can get 2 wins in a row now that the grind of the season kicks in and how those returning players stand up to the match fitness levels required. Also, West Coast travelling to Docklands and that whole 'flat track bully' meme.

The Demons also bring a better form line (just) this week, so are genuine chances to upset North.

Good luck tipping this difficult season.

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