Wednesday, 7 June 2017

12. ALMOST PARITY


Its been a momentous few years for Essendon.
Turmoil and chaos. Undermining and over-protecting. Leadership and regime change.

Finally, all the external pressures are gone from Essendon, and a new board and new President is at the helm. The club is also guided by a new, experienced coach and the suspended players have returned. Stability at last
.

Below is a chart of all the FMI rankings for Essendon since 2005, the third last year under Kevin Sheedy.
The data displayed below is the Essendon ranking minus the 'parity score' of 1000, to provide perspective against a base line of a 'normal' team. The coaching eras have also been colour themed together, with differing shades per year and different colour themes per coach.

A the very right of the chart the effect of the WADA bans nin 2016 is clear, with a huge drop off through the year. The return on the 10 players has strengthened Essendon to a point now where parity is within reach.




As thet stand now, Essendon are 5 wins and 6 losses and sitting 12th. As they were a bottom 6 team last year, they are given the benefit of the handicap of the schedule. Under the FMITL SWARMS method of determine ladder finishing position, Essendon have, after round 11, reached a more than 50% chance of finishing inside the top 8.


Essendon
Pr1r2r3r4r5r6r7r8r9r10r11r12r13r14r15r16r17r18r19r20r21r22r23
1
2
3
4
5211
621555
7517121323
8111212312162027
9314432035162320
1016161171710110141612
11212172511122131512117
125191626169216191064
139271217206211221732
1413225921415251941
1517742027357
16223111141
172413
188


The SWARMS method takes into consideration the ranking of Essendon and the ranking of each opponent remaining in the schedule, then estimates game outcomes based on that data with some variability thrown in.

Essendon's remaining 11 opponents are:
   Home match-ups:      Port Adelaide, Brisbane, North Melbourne, Carlton, Adelaide, Fremantle.
   'Road' match-ups:      Sydney, Collingwood, St Kilda, W Bulldogs, Gold Coast.

Of those 11, they will need to win at least 6 to be a chance. Of the home games there looks to be three that jump off the page. The other three (or more) though... that's the tougher assignment.

Making the eight or not, the ratings improve and rebuild has shown that Essendon are very much so back from the brink.


The Wash Up:

Six games and three correct is ot something to boast about. Best not write much here other than it was not unexpected.
HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
Port AdelaidevHawthornAdelPortby39pts78Portby51ptsPort14Hawt-8
GeelongvAdelaideKardAdelby3pts47Geelby22ptsGeel9Adel-9
Gold CoastvWest CoastCarrWestby24pts31Goldby3ptsGold10West-22
GWSvEssendonSydSGWSby59pts88GWSby16ptsGWS-21Esse31
North MelbournevRichmondDockNortby6pts55Richby35ptsNort-17Rich20
FremantlevCollingwoodSubiCollby5pts46Collby20ptsFrem-5Coll6

All the rankings and changes to same for each team are below, and its loaded with all the little changes for such a short round.

AFTER ROUND11ptstable
1Adelaide1379-90
2GWS1319-210
3Port Adelaide1299140
4Geelong124591
5W Bulldogs/FFC1241-1
6Sydney/SMFC12151
7West Coast1201-22-1
8Collingwood108561
9North Melbourne1073-17-1
10Richmond1054201
11Melbourne1040-1
12St Kilda10320
13Hawthorn1021-80
14Essendon928311
15Fremantle907-5-1
16Gold Coast880100
17Carlton8450
18Brisbane Lions6340


The Week Ahead.

Another short round but this time loaded with 7 games, yet stretched out between Thursday night and Monday afternoon. Too little and too much.
HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTION
Sydney/SMFCvW Bulldogs/FFCSCGSydnby10pts58
AdelaidevSt KildaAdelAdelby49pts84
HawthornvGold CoastMCGHawtby27pts71
Brisbane LionsvFremantleGabbFremby16pts37
EssendonvPort AdelaideDockPortby26pts30
CarltonvGWSDockGWSby37pts23
MelbournevCollingwoodMCGCollby5pts46

Concerned here about the Swans and Pies. And whichever Fremantle bothers to fly to Brisbane. More uncertainty is the only certain thing in 2017.

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