Its been a momentous few years for Essendon.
Turmoil and chaos. Undermining and over-protecting. Leadership and regime change.
Finally, all the external pressures are gone from Essendon, and a new board and new President is at the helm. The club is also guided by a new, experienced coach and the suspended players have returned. Stability at last
Below is a chart of all the FMI rankings for Essendon since 2005, the third last year under Kevin Sheedy.
The data displayed below is the Essendon ranking minus the 'parity score' of 1000, to provide perspective against a base line of a 'normal' team. The coaching eras have also been colour themed together, with differing shades per year and different colour themes per coach.
A the very right of the chart the effect of the WADA bans nin 2016 is clear, with a huge drop off through the year. The return on the 10 players has strengthened Essendon to a point now where parity is within reach.
As thet stand now, Essendon are 5 wins and 6 losses and sitting 12th. As they were a bottom 6 team last year, they are given the benefit of the handicap of the schedule. Under the FMITL SWARMS method of determine ladder finishing position, Essendon have, after round 11, reached a more than 50% chance of finishing inside the top 8.
The SWARMS method takes into consideration the ranking of Essendon and the ranking of each opponent remaining in the schedule, then estimates game outcomes based on that data with some variability thrown in.
Essendon's remaining 11 opponents are:
Home match-ups: Port Adelaide, Brisbane, North Melbourne, Carlton, Adelaide, Fremantle.
'Road' match-ups: Sydney, Collingwood, St Kilda, W Bulldogs, Gold Coast.
Of those 11, they will need to win at least 6 to be a chance. Of the home games there looks to be three that jump off the page. The other three (or more) though... that's the tougher assignment.
Making the eight or not, the ratings improve and rebuild has shown that Essendon are very much so back from the brink.
The Wash Up:Six games and three correct is ot something to boast about. Best not write much here other than it was not unexpected.
|HOME AWAY||VENUE||PREDICTION||RESULT||RANKING PT CHANGES|
|Gold Coast||v||West Coast||Carr||West||by||24||pts||31||Gold||by||3||pts||☒||Gold||10||West||-22|
All the rankings and changes to same for each team are below, and its loaded with all the little changes for such a short round.
The Week Ahead.Another short round but this time loaded with 7 games, yet stretched out between Thursday night and Monday afternoon. Too little and too much.
Concerned here about the Swans and Pies. And whichever Fremantle bothers to fly to Brisbane. More uncertainty is the only certain thing in 2017.