Thursday, 15 June 2017

13. STRENGTHENDON

Just last week, this blog said that Essendon have improved significantly this year and after round 11 are now a more than 50% chance to make the top 8 at seasons end.
At that stage, they were a 56% chance to make the 8, and had some reasonably poorly performing teams in front of them.

Of course immediately in front of them was Port Adelaide. By the FMI system, Port were expected to win, and win quite easily. But then came the upset that was Essendon thrashing Port.
And now, after another 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, Essendon have leapt to be only a 5% chance of not making the finals.

The calculations are of course based on ratings, so the 'in real life situations' (like the upset win over Port) can alter dramatically the expectations. Essendon do still have 10 games to play.
That 95% chance of September play could erode quickly.

An example of that erosion...? West Coast. Three recent losses (to GWS and particularly to Essendon and Gold Coast) have switched them from near certainties to shaky finals candidates.


West Coast
Pr1r2r3r4r5r6r7r8r9r10r11r12r13r14r15r16r17r18r19r20r21r22r23
17291022151
211251567583
31216161014119139
414111615203517231821
5148172019815242228912
614515191925232519173054
71138131547301371025188
8813821016526172217
9515138114102431
103212241522
11112911
12144
1321
14
15
16
17
18


This season.
It continues to bring the surprises.


Finally; BYE WATCH. Normally there is a bit of media chatter about how the bye is an influencer on the teams performance in the next round. Teams losing off the bye has been an argument around not having byes. So lets track that data in 2017.

  Losses immediately after a bye:
     Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs.

  Wins immediately after a bye:
     Sydney*, Melbourne, Carlton, Brisbane Lions.

  Playing after a bye this weekend: 
     Geelong+, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast+.

Results: 4 wins and 4 losses post-bye
  * won against team coming off a bye.
  + playing each other after a bye.


The Wash-Up.

Nothing to see here.

HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
Sydney/SMFCvW Bulldogs/FFCSCGSydnby10pts58Sydnby46ptsSydn13W Bu-13
AdelaidevSt KildaAdelAdelby49pts84Adelby57ptsAdel3St K-5
HawthornvGold CoastMCGHawtby27pts71Goldby16ptsHawt-20Gold22
Brisbane LionsvFremantleGabbFremby16pts37Brisby57ptsBris25Frem-24
EssendonvPort AdelaideDockPortby26pts30Esseby70ptsEsse45Port-25
CarltonvGWSDockGWSby37pts23Carlby1ptsCarl17GWS-26
MelbournevCollingwoodMCGCollby5pts46Melbby4ptsMelb13Coll-3


Well actually everything to see here. What a round. Only 2 right and by the FMI system, the close one tipped by under a goal is by default the most likely to be wrong. But that list of 'upsets'!
Gold Coast winning at the MCG. Brisbane, well, winning! Essendon jumping the Power. And Carlton... apparently (via twitter) the lowest positioned team to ever defeat the ladder leaders.


The rankings and changes.

AFTER ROUND12ptstable
1Adelaide138230
2GWS1293-260
3Port Adelaide1274-250
4Geelong12450
5Sydney/SMFC1228131
6W Bulldogs/FFC1227-13-1
7West Coast12010
8Collingwood1082-30
9North Melbourne10730
10Richmond10540
11Melbourne1053130
12St Kilda1027-50
13Hawthorn1001-200
14Essendon973450
15Gold Coast902221
16Fremantle883-24-1
17Carlton862170
18Brisbane Lions659250


The Week Ahead.

The last of the bye rounds, so be careful who you tip and think about 'coming off the bye', if that's your thing. 

HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTION
West CoastvGeelongSubiWestby8pts56
North MelbournevSt KildaDockNortby5pts54
RichmondvSydney/SMFCMCGSydnby6pts46
Port AdelaidevBrisbane LionsAdelPortby77pts94
Gold CoastvCarltonCarrGoldby17pts63
W Bulldogs/FFCvMelbourneDockW Buby18pts64

The first three games all have close expected margins and all have teams coming off the bye. In the second and third games, North get the tip to win off the bye, while Richmond dont.
Consider your tips wisely.

No comments:

Post a Comment