Thursday, 29 June 2017

15. SCORE REVIEW

This week, prior to the tips, a little chat about score reviews.

No not those ones, but a bit on what has been talked about a lot this year.
The close ones that some clubs have been fortunate enough to win, and also the inaccuracy of kicking this year.

So be prepared for some mighty assumptions that lead to unenforceable conclusions via unrealistic influences.
And you are asked to suspend some belief as well, knowing that if a team had have wone a few close ones, ten the belief in the playing group for subsequent matches would be different and therefore thos subsequent matches may well have had entirely different outcomes.

Just put that minor reality check to one side.


MISSED IT BY THAT MUCH

So your team went down by the smallest of margins in the dying seconds after a tragic error by 'player who should know better'.

The what if that others have tweeted and I'm sure it been on Fox Footy as well is:
     What if team A kicked an extra goal? What impact would that have on season 2017?

The below table is formed by altering each game with a margin under 7 point. The adjustment is to add a clean goal to the losing team only, and only to those teams where the margin was between 1 and 6 points.

The adjusted table would look as per right, side by side with the current AFL table.


CURRENT AFL TABLEONE GOAL DIFFERENT ON CLOSE ONES AFL TABLE
TeamWDLForAg.PctPtsTeamWDLForAg.PctPts
1GWS100313481119120.5%401Richmond110211531016113.48%44
2Adelaide90415081102136.8%362Adelaide90415081102136.84%36
3Geelong90413081153113.4%363Port Adelaide90413611001135.96%36
4Port Adelaide80513551001135.4%324West Coast90411731138103.08%36
5Melbourne80513201151114.7%325GWS80513541137119.09%32
6Richmond80511351016111.7%326Melbourne80513321163114.53%32
7West Coast70611611138102.0%287North Melbourne8051234129695.22%32
8St Kilda7061139116298.0%288Essendon70612401197103.59%28
9W Bulldogs/FFC7061084111797.0%289St Kilda7061139116298.02%28
10Sydney/SMFC60711561099105.2%2410Sydney/SMFC61611681105105.70%26
11Essendon60712341197103.1%2411Geelong60713081171111.70%24
12Fremantle607991124579.6%2412Collingwood6071142115099.30%24
13Collingwood5081130114498.8%2013W Bulldogs/FFC5081090113596.04%20
14Gold Coast5081149132686.7%2014Gold Coast5081155133286.71%20
15Carlton508940115081.7%2015Carlton409940115681.31%16
16Hawthorn5081042131179.5%2016Fremantle409997126378.94%16
17North Melbourne4091210129693.4%1617Hawthorn3191042132378.76%14
18Brisbane Lions20111070155368.9%818Brisbane Lions10121070155968.63%4


It makes for sad viewing for Tigers fans as the three close losses get converted to wind and the top the table.
It is worse viewing for North fans as they collect 4 wins, move off from 17th right up to 7th and a shot at a finals run.

Counter to those gains are Fremantle, Geelong, GWS and the Bulldogs losing 2 more each.

If only the cruelties of the game were different (and as before suspension of belief is applied).


SHOOT STRAIGHT, YA BASTARDS

Another topic of occasional conversation this season revolves around goal kicking inaccuracy, with the old chestnut of 'Players getting paid millions but no one can shoot straight!.

So a second look at season 2017 with more accurate kicking is below.
A along with the assumption before, there are more here.
For example, the accuracy was altered to both maintain the number of shots taken per team but to skew it to an approx 2/3rds goals to 1/3rd behinds (with some adjustments in the behinds to balance shots total).

CURRENT AFL TABLEACCURATE KICKING AFL TABLE
TeamWDLForAg.PctPtsTeamWDLForAg.PctPts
1GWS100313481119120.5%401Port Adelaide90416001176136.05%36
2Adelaide90415081102136.8%362Adelaide90416781245134.78%36
3Geelong90413081153113.4%363GWS90415471319117.29%36
4Port Adelaide80513551001135.4%324Richmond90413941202115.97%36
5Melbourne80513201151114.7%325Melbourne90414291305109.50%36
6Richmond80511351016111.7%326Geelong90414421383104.27%36
7West Coast70611611138102.0%287St Kilda80514491307110.86%32
8St Kilda7061139116298.0%288W Bulldogs/FFC72413591264107.52%32
9W Bulldogs/FFC7061084111797.0%289West Coast70613311327100.30%28
10Sydney/SMFC60711561099105.2%2410Collingwood61613851317105.16%26
11Essendon60712341197103.1%2411Sydney/SMFC60713251243106.60%24
12Fremantle607991124579.6%2412Gold Coast6071307148188.25%24
13Collingwood5081130114498.8%2013Hawthorn5171171149578.33%22
14Gold Coast5081149132686.7%2014Fremantle4181154143580.42%18
15Carlton508940115081.7%2015North Melbourne4091375149591.97%16
16Hawthorn5081042131179.5%2016Essendon3191358147192.32%14
17North Melbourne4091210129693.4%1617Carlton30101060129981.60%12
18Brisbane Lions20111070155368.9%818Brisbane Lions10121193179366.54%4


There are other assumptions as well that need to be taken as a given here as well, but as an exercise in kicking better, there are a few changes of note.
Fremantle would lose a game and a half under a more accurate kicking scenario, while Essendon and Carlton are the biggest changers, losing two and a half games and two games respectively from their current total.

The two games that convert to Essendon losses were Anzac Day, where Collingwood kicked 10.16, and in May where Geelong kicked 13.15.
For Carlton, it would be where Carlton kicked well to defeat Sydney who went 11.12, and only recently where GWS sent them selves to a defeat by converting 25 scoring shots to 9.16,

The other factor highlighted by those three teams may well be the defensive effort based play employed. Pressure inside the back 50 forces errors and poor avenues to goal.


But that is enough of the hypotheticals.


The Wash Up


A decent return of 7 from the nine available, only upset from perfect by the travelling Victorians winning west of Gariwerd. 

HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
AdelaidevHawthornAdelAdelby53pts85Hawtby14ptsAdel-23Hawt21
Sydney/SMFCvEssendonSCGSydnby40pts79Sydnby1ptsSydn-11Esse39
CollingwoodvPort AdelaideMCGPortby6pts45Portby31ptsColl-9Port9
Brisbane LionsvGWSGabbGWSby51pts15GWSby60ptsBris-3GWS3
W Bulldogs/FFCvNorth MelbourneDockW Buby15pts62W Buby1ptsW Bu-20Nort4
West CoastvMelbourneSubiWestby25pts69Melbby3ptsWest-20Melb28
GeelongvFremantleKardGeelby50pts84Geelby2ptsGeel-18Frem14
RichmondvCarltonMCGRichby18pts64Richby26ptsRich11Carl-3
St KildavGold CoastDockSt Kby28pts71St Kby32ptsSt K3Gold-2


Only a few minor changes to the table below, Richmond and Fremantle move up places, and Essendon, despite the last minute loss, also gain more points, and cross the 1000 point threshold.

AFTER ROUND14ptstable
1Adelaide1359-230
2GWS129630
3Port Adelaide126690
4Geelong1223-180
5Sydney/SMFC1221-110
6West Coast1183-200
7W Bulldogs/FFC1180-200
8Melbourne1113280
9Collingwood1073-90
10Richmond1064111
11North Melbourne10604-1
12St Kilda103830
13Hawthorn1022210
14Essendon1012390
15Fremantle898141
16Gold Coast891-2-1
17Carlton879-30
18Brisbane Lions680-30


The Week Ahead

Nine more this week and another set of close ones expected. Consider Friday night, Saturday twilight, and the later Sunday games as coin tosses.

HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTION
MelbournevSydney/SMFCMCGMelbby1pts51
W Bulldogs/FFCvWest CoastDockW Buby12pts60
CarltonvAdelaideMCGAdelby38pts22
Gold CoastvNorth MelbourneCarrNortby5pts46
GWSvGeelongSydSGWSby20pts66
Port AdelaidevRichmondAdelPortby34pts75
EssendonvBrisbane LionsDockEsseby47pts83
HawthornvCollingwoodMCGCollby5pts46
FremantlevSt KildaSubiSt Kby2pts48

And you could very well say the same of Geelong in Western Sydney too.

Not expecting a perfect round this week, or even 6 winners.

Consider your tips wisely.

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