Thursday, 6 July 2017

16. TRANSITION RENDITION

There has been a lot of chat about one particular coach's position all year.
His ability to coach. The inheritance of a championship team, and the decay from then on. The factor of a rebuild, a cleanout. Changing of a culture and recreating it with his own brand.

There has been many takes on the transition, and the coaches ability.
Below is the ranking data for Collingwood from the season that Buckley signed as an assistant coach with the promise of transition to senior coach, until now.

The Black and green lines represent the ranking data - black for the Malthouse era, and green for the Buckley years. The numbers plotted are ratings points over an average rating.
The blue and red thin lines are the ladder positions after each round. The higher the line, the higher up the ladder.




Both arrays of data show a decline since 2012. Collingwood has yet to become a sub-average rated team by the FMI measures, which is a limited positive.

Also, when compared to the Essendon journey since Sheedy, the decline has not been dramatic enough to have been sub-par as the Dons were three times before sanctions were levied. But also, after each dive there was a rally and development. The above chart has much less rallying, and more flatlining.

And judging by the already noted comments about 'Collingwood's 2011 premiership hangover', not only cant you see it in their on field results as defeated Grand finalists, you cant see it performance rankings like these, as they improved by about 100 points over the year.
Most clubs would love a year like that.


The Wash Up

Another amazing week of not tipping well at all, and everyone marvelling at how even the season is.
That's all well and good, but its hard to tip and track.

HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
MelbournevSydney/SMFCMCGMelbby1pts51Sydnby35ptsMelb-14Sydn13
W Bulldogs/FFCvWest CoastDockW Buby12pts60Westby7ptsW Bu-21West7
CarltonvAdelaideMCGAdelby38pts22Adelby12ptsCarl16Adel-19
Gold CoastvNorth MelbourneCarrNortby5pts46Goldby19ptsGold11Nort-14
GWSvGeelongSydSGWSby20pts66DRAW0ptsGWS-17Geel6
Port AdelaidevRichmondAdelPortby34pts75Richby13ptsPort-19Rich24
EssendonvBrisbane LionsDockEsseby47pts83Brisby8ptsEsse-19Bris29
HawthornvCollingwoodMCGCollby5pts46Hawtby24ptsHawt12Coll-15
FremantlevSt KildaSubiSt Kby2pts48St Kby9ptsFrem-4St K5


Three this week (if you take the draw as a 'correct' result, as per some tipping comps).
And as a guide to how odd the round was for the FMI system - the margin difference across all games was under the required standard.

An odd week on the tip.


Table wise, there are a few changes of note.
Sydney move up over Geelong, as to Richmond over Geelong. More importantly, Fremantle drop to second last. Only just though.

AFTER ROUND15ptstable
1Adelaide1339-190
2GWS1280-170
3Port Adelaide1247-190
4Sydney/SMFC1233131
5Geelong12296-1
6West Coast119070
7W Bulldogs/FFC1160-210
8Melbourne1099-140
9Richmond1088241
10Collingwood1058-15-1
11North Melbourne1045-140
12St Kilda104350
13Hawthorn1034120
14Essendon993-190
15Gold Coast902111
16Carlton894161
17Fremantle893-4-2
18Brisbane Lions709290


The Week Ahead

Another set of interesting games and there are three different close games tipped. But this season, pretty much every game is tough to get a bead on.
HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTION
AdelaidevW Bulldogs/FFCAdelAdelby31pts74
HawthornvGWSYorkGWSby13pts40
CollingwoodvEssendonMCGCollby7pts55
Sydney/SMFCvGold CoastSCGSydnby47pts83
Brisbane LionsvGeelongGabbGeelby42pts20
St KildavRichmondDockRichby5pts47
North MelbournevFremantleDockNortby29pts72
CarltonvMelbourneMCGMelbby22pts33
West CoastvPort AdelaideSubiWestby6pts55

Tip as always, with care.

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