Thursday, 13 July 2017

17. TAKES 7

Seven more games of the season to be played, so another preview of each teams' confidence indicators leading to finals is the order of the day.

As before, they show each team and a confidence level when matched to upcoming opponents. The below are FMI rankings based with influences from ground, location and form.

In an attempt to make these understandable, bar charts were used, with coloured segments representing the strength of conviction. The darker the green, the more the expectation of a win. The darker the grey, the expectation is stronger for a loss.
Those most lightest shades are where the judgement is unclear but leaning to one side over the other.

Also under each team chart is the current need for each club to make the 8 at a minimum (assuming 12 wins is needed), as well as a short assessment of how attainable the finals are. Again, these assume teams will play to within an expectation level. It does not exclude an upset here or there, which shifts the outcomes, often dramatically.





The Wash-Up

Marginal improvement in tipping, and add in the bonus of the draw for 1 more. Still, below standard.

HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTIONRESULTRANKING PT CHANGES
AdelaidevW Bulldogs/FFCAdelAdelby31pts74Adelby59ptsAdel10W Bu-23
HawthornvGWSYorkGWSby13pts40DRAW0ptsHawt10GWS-15
CollingwoodvEssendonMCGCollby7pts55Esseby37ptsColl-24Esse26
Sydney/SMFCvGold CoastSCGSydnby47pts83Sydnby67ptsSydn10Gold-7
Brisbane LionsvGeelongGabbGeelby42pts20Geelby85ptsBris-16Geel15
St KildavRichmondDockRichby5pts46St Kby67ptsSt K24Rich-22
North MelbournevFremantleDockNortby29pts72Fremby4ptsNort-20Frem12
CarltonvMelbourneMCGMelbby22pts33Melbby8ptsCarl14Melb-4
West CoastvPort AdelaideSubiWestby7pts55Portby32ptsWest-19Port14


And after a few weeks of close games, we double up the draws for 2017 in consecutive weeks, plus three games hit the 60+ blowout list. This season is well down on blowouts. It's good, yeah?


Lots of lovely big changes in rankings as per below. St Kilda up three spots is the highlight.

AFTER ROUND16ptstable
1Adelaide1349100
2GWS1265-150
3Port Adelaide1261140
4Geelong1244151
5Sydney/SMFC124310-1
6West Coast1170-190
7W Bulldogs/FFC1136-230
8Melbourne1095-40
9St Kilda1067243
10Richmond1066-22-1
11Hawthorn1045102
12Collingwood1034-24-2
13North Melbourne1025-20-2
14Essendon1020260
15Carlton908141
16Fremantle905121
17Gold Coast895-7-2
18Brisbane Lions693-160


Crows are still the standout on top, Brisbane distant in 18th. Plenty of teams in a points bracket and lumped between 8th and 14th. Makes it hard to predict the end of season, and why handicapping the draw is not a good idea.
Hello Essendon, who are getting a bump up in the predictions because of the softness of their fixture. Well done AFL. *slow hand clap*

The Week Ahead

Three more close ones to drive your tipping choices around the twist. Good luck on those games!

HOME AWAYVENUEPREDICTION
St KildavEssendonDockSt Kby5pts54
GeelongvHawthornMCGGeelby21pts66
Port AdelaidevNorth MelbourneAdelPortby37pts77
Gold CoastvCollingwoodCarrCollby2pts48
GWSvSydney/SMFCSydSGWSby2pts52
MelbournevAdelaideMaraAdelby27pts30
RichmondvBrisbane LionsDockRichby39pts78
CarltonvW Bulldogs/FFCMCGW Buby24pts32
FremantlevWest CoastSubiWestby28pts29

Also, someone remind me why Carlton (the Docklands tenant) is at 'home' at the MCG, while Richmond (the MCG tenant) is at 'home' at the Docklands.

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